What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes

This article uses probability forecasts derived from options to assess evolving market uncertainty about Federal Reserve monetary policy actions in a variety of recent events and episodes. Options on federal funds futures contracts reveal a complete probability density function over possible Federal Reserve target rates, thus augmenting the expectations provided by federal funds futures contracts. Option-based forecasts are most useful when more than two federal funds target outcomes are plausible at an upcoming policy meeting.Federal Open Market Committee ; Forecasting ; Monetary policy

Dynamic and Energetic Stabilization of Persistent Currents in Bose-Einstein Condensates

We study conditions under which vortices in a highly oblate harmonically trapped Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) can be stabilized due to pinning by a blue-detuned Gaussian laser beam, with particular emphasis on the potentially destabilizing effects of laser beam positioning within the BEC. Our approach involves theoretical and numerical exploration of dynamically and energetically stable pinning of vortices with winding number up to $S=6$, in correspondence with experimental observations. Stable pinning is quantified theoretically via Bogoliubov-de Gennes excitation spectrum computations and confirmed via direct numerical simulations for a range of conditions similar to those of experimental observations. The theoretical and numerical results indicate that the pinned winding number, or equivalently the winding number of the superfluid current about the laser beam, decays as a laser beam of fixed intensity moves away from the BEC center. Our theoretical analysis helps explain previous experimental observations, and helps define limits of stable vortex pinning for future experiments involving vortex manipulation by laser beams.Comment: 8 pages 5 figure

Multisite study assessing the effect of cognitive test anxiety on academic and standardized test performance

Objective. To evaluate the degree of cognitive test anxiety (CTA) present in student pharmacists at multiple pharmacy programs in the United States and to determine if there are associations between self-reported CTA and relevant academic outcomes. Methods. All 2018-2019 advanced pharmacy practice experience (APPE) students from three US Doctor of Pharmacy (PharmD) programs (N=260) were invited to participate in the study. Participants completed a validated 37-question survey that included the Cognitive Test Anxiety Scale-2 (CTAS-2) along with demographics-related questions. Responses were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA), Kruskal Wallace, and multiple linear regression where appropriate. Results. One hundred twenty-four students (48%) from the three programs participated in the study, and the individual data of 119 (46%) were included in the final analysis. Twenty-two students (18.5%) were classified as having high CTA, 41 (34.5%) as having moderate CTA, and 56 (47.1%) as having low CTA. High CTA predicted a 8.9 point lower NAPLEX total scaled score after accounting for other variables and was also correlated with lower cumulative didactic GPA, performance on the Pharmacy Curriculum Outcomes Assessment (PCOA), and increased likelihood of requiring course remediation. Conclusion. High cognitive test anxiety affects 18% of pharmacy students and may significantly impact their performance on a variety of traditional student success measures, including the NAPLEX. Pharmacy educators should consider further use and adoption of test anxiety measurements to identify and assist potentially struggling students

Vortex Formation by Interference of Multiple Trapped Bose-Einstein Condensates

We report observations of vortex formation as a result of merging together multiple $^{87}$Rb Bose-Einstein condensates (BECs) in a confining potential. In this experiment, a trapping potential is partitioned into three sections by a barrier, enabling the simultaneous formation of three independent, uncorrelated condensates. The three condensates then merge together into one BEC, either by removal of the barrier, or during the final stages of evaporative cooling if the barrier energy is low enough; both processes can naturally produce vortices within the trapped BEC. We interpret the vortex formation mechanism as originating in interference between the initially independent condensates, with indeterminate relative phases between the three initial condensates and the condensate merging rate playing critical roles in the probability of observing vortices in the final, single BEC.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Sagebrush landscape: Upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience Project

Prepared with: The Gunnison Climate Working Group and Stakeholders in Gunnison, Colorado for: the North Central Climate Science Center, Ft. Collins, Colorado.April 30, 2017.Includes bibliographical references.Utilizing climate stories to understand the social and ecological impacts to the sagebrush landscape, the team worked with stakeholders to develop three overarching landscape‐scale adaptation strategies. Each of the strategies has a suite of potential actions required to reach a desired future condition. The three key strategies are: 1) identify and protect climate refugia sites (persistent areas), 2) maintain or enhance the resilience of the climate refugia sites, and 3) accept, assist and allow for transformation in non‐climate refugia sites. If adopted by the local community, including land managers and landowners, the framework and strategies resulting from this project can help to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change, allowing for a more sustainable human and natural landscape

Dynamic Control of Laser Produced Proton Beams

The emission characteristics of intense laser driven protons are controlled using ultra-strong (of the order of 10^9 V/m) electrostatic fields varying on a few ps timescale. The field structures are achieved by exploiting the high potential of the target (reaching multi-MV during the laser interaction). Suitably shaped targets result in a reduction in the proton beam divergence, and hence an increase in proton flux while preserving the high beam quality. The peak focusing power and its temporal variation are shown to depend on the target characteristics, allowing for the collimation of the inherently highly divergent beam and the design of achromatic electrostatic lenses.Comment: 9 Pages, 5 figure

Phenotype standardization for statin-induced myotoxicity

Statins are widely used lipid-lowering drugs that are effective in reducing cardiovascular disease risk. Although they are generally well tolerated, they can cause muscle toxicity, which can lead to severe rhabdomyolysis. Research in this area has been hampered to some extent by the lack of standardized nomenclature and phenotypic definitions. We have used numerical and descriptive classifications and developed an algorithm to define statin-related myotoxicity phenotypes, including myalgia, myopathy, rhabdomyolysis, and necrotizing autoimmune myopathy.</p

Soft X-ray harmonic comb from relativistic electron spikes

We demonstrate a new high-order harmonic generation mechanism reaching the `water window' spectral region in experiments with multi-terawatt femtosecond lasers irradiating gas jets. A few hundred harmonic orders are resolved, giving uJ/sr pulses. Harmonics are collectively emitted by an oscillating electron spike formed at the joint of the boundaries of a cavity and bow wave created by a relativistically self-focusing laser in underdense plasma. The spike sharpness and stability are explained by catastrophe theory. The mechanism is corroborated by particle-in-cell simulations