Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5,–2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%)

A qualitative study of carers' experiences of dementia cafes : a place to feel supported and be yourself

Abstract Background Unpaid, informal carers or caregivers play an important role in supporting people living with dementia but the role can be challenging and carers themselves may benefit from support. Alzheimer’s, dementia or memory cafés are one such form of support . These cafés are usually provided in the voluntary sector and are a place where people with dementia and those supporting them, usually family carers, can meet with others in similar situations. Methods Using semi-structured interviews, this qualitative study explored the experiences of 11 carers from five dementia cafés in and around London, England. Results Thematic analysis resulted in the identification of four key themes. Cafés provide a relaxed, welcoming atmosphere where carers can go where they feel supported and accepted. Café attendance often brought a sense of normality to these carers’ lives. Carers and those they care for look forward to going and often enjoy both the activities provided and socialising with others. Other highlighted benefits included peer support from other carers, information provision and support from the volunteer café coordinators. Despite diversity in how the cafés were run and in the activities offered, there were many reported similarities amongst carers in the value ascribed to attending the cafés. Conclusions Dementia cafés appear to be a valuable, perhaps unique form of support for carers giving them brief respite from their caring role. Future research incorporating mixed methods is needed to understand the perspectives of those living with dementia

Economically important species dominate aboveground carbon storage in forests of southwestern Amazonia

Tree species in tropical forests provide economically important goods and ecosystem services. In submontane forests of southwestern Amazonia, we investigated the degree to which tree species important for subsistence and trade contribute to aboveground carbon storage (AGC). We used 41 1-hectare plots to determine the species abundance, basal area, and AGC of stems > 10 cm diameter at breast height (dbh). Economically important taxa were classified using ethnobotanical studies and according to their stem density. These taxa (n = 263) accounted for 45% of total stems, 53% of total basal area, and 56% of total AGC, significantly more than taxa with minor or unknown uses (Welch test at p 40 cm and few stems in regeneration classes of dbh < 10 to 20 cm (e.g., Bertholletia excelsa, Cariniana spp., Cedrelinga spp., Ceiba spp., Dipteryx spp.), whereas dominant Tetragastris spp., and Pseudolmedia spp. had most stems in low diameter classes and a median diameter of < 30 cm. Bertholletia excelsa, with 1.5 stems per hectare, showed the highest basal area of any species and accounted for 9% of AGC (11 Mg/ha), twice that of the second-ranking species. Our study shows that economic importance and carbon stocks in trees are closely linked in southwestern Amazonia. Unplanned harvests can disrupt synergistic dual roles altering carbon stocks temporally or permanently. Precautionary measures based on species ecology, demography, and regeneration traits should be at the forefront of REDD+ to reconcile maximum harvesting limits, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable forest management

Kinderwunsch, Familie und Beruf

Im vorliegenden Text liegt der Fokus auf der Verwobenheit von Kinderwünschen, Anforderungen an Mutter- und Vaterschaft sowie den Berufsvorstellungen und -verläufen von Frauen und Männern. In einem ersten Schritt geht es um die Herausbildung der Vorstellungen von Weiblichkeit und Mutterschaft sowie Männlichkeit und Vaterschaft, wie sie sich im Zuge der Etablierung der bürgerlichen Gesellschaft entwickelt haben und das Bild von Familie bis heute prägen. Wie sich zeigt, sind diese Vorstellungen bei der Entwicklung eines Kinderwunsches und den Überlegungen, wie dieser gelebt werden kann, nach wie vor ein wichtiger normativer Bezugspunkt. Gleichzeitig lassen sich für beide Geschlechter auch neue Bedürfnisse bezogen auf Elternschaft feststellen, was für Männer wie für Frauen zu deutlichen Spannungen führt, wenn es darum geht, Elternschaft und Beruf zu vereinbaren. Gründe sind vor allem die gegenwärtigen Lebens- und Arbeitsbedingungen. Sie erlauben es derzeit kaum, Beruf und Familienleben entsprechend den eigenen Bedürfnissen und (Zeit-) Wünschen zu organisieren