The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming

Impact of adverse events, treatment modifications, and dose intensity on survival among patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma treated with first‐line sunitinib: a medical chart review across ten centers in five European countries

Angiogenesis inhibitors have become standard of care for advanced and/or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but data on the impact of adverse events (AEs) and treatment modifications associated with these agents are limited. Medical records were abstracted at 10 tertiary oncology centers in Europe for 291 patients ≥18 years old treated with sunitinib as first-line treatment for advanced RCC (no prior systemic treatment for advanced disease). Logistic regression models were estimated to compare dose intensity among patients who did and did not experience AEs during the landmark periods (18, 24, and 30 weeks). Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the possible relationship of low-dose intensity (defined using thresholds of 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9) and treatment modifications during the landmark periods to survival. 64.4% to 67.9% of patients treated with sunitinib reported at least one AE of any grade, and approximately 10% of patients experienced at least one severe (grade 3 or 4) AE. Patients reporting severe AEs were statistically significantly more likely to have dose intensities below either 0.8 or 0.9. Dose intensity below 0.7 and dose discontinuation during all landmark periods were statistically significantly associated with shorter survival time. This study of advanced RCC patients treated with sunitinib in Europe found a significant relationship between AEs and dose intensity. It also found correlations between dose intensity and shorter survival, and between dose discontinuation and shorter survival. These results confirm the importance of tolerable treatment and maintaining dose intensity

Cannabigerolic acid, a major biosynthetic precursor molecule in cannabis, exhibits divergent effects on seizures in mouse models of epilepsy

Background and Purpose: Cannabis has been used to treat epilepsy for millennia, with such use validated by regulatory approval of cannabidiol (CBD) for Dravet syndrome. Unregulated artisanal cannabis-based products used to treat children with intractable epilepsies often contain relatively low doses of CBD but are enriched in other phytocannabinoids. This raises the possibility that other cannabis constituents might have anticonvulsant properties. Experimental Approach: We used the Scn1a+/− mouse model of Dravet syndrome to investigate the cannabis plant for phytocannabinoids with anticonvulsant effects against hyperthermia-induced seizures. The most promising, cannabigerolic acid (CBGA), was further examined against spontaneous seizures and survival in Scn1a+/− mice and in electroshock seizure models. Pharmacological effects of CBGA were surveyed across multiple drug targets. Key Results: The initial screen identified three phytocannabinoids with novel anticonvulsant properties: CBGA, cannabidivarinic acid (CBDVA) and cannabigerovarinic acid (CBGVA). CBGA was most potent and potentiated the anticonvulsant effects of clobazam against hyperthermia-induced and spontaneous seizures, and was anticonvulsant in the MES threshold test. However, CBGA was proconvulsant in the 6-Hz threshold test and a high dose increased spontaneous seizure frequency in Scn1a+/− mice. CBGA was found to interact with numerous epilepsy-relevant targets including GPR55, TRPV1 channels and GABAA receptors. Conclusion and Implications: These results suggest that CBGA, CBDVA and CBGVA may contribute to the effects of cannabis-based products in childhood epilepsy. Although these phytocannabinoids have anticonvulsant potential and could be lead compounds for drug development programmes, several liabilities would need to be overcome before CBD is superseded by another in this class

Historical Legacies in World Amphibian Diversity Revealed by the Turnover and Nestedness Components of Beta Diversity

Historic processes are expected to influence present diversity patterns in combination with contemporary environmental factors. We hypothesise that the joint use of beta diversity partitioning methods and a threshold-based approach may help reveal the effect of large-scale historic processes on present biodiversity. We partitioned intra-regional beta diversity into its turnover (differences in composition caused by species replacements) and nestedness-resultant (differences in species composition caused by species losses) components. We used piecewise regressions to show that, for amphibian beta diversity, two different world regions can be distinguished. Below parallel 37, beta diversity is dominated by turnover, while above parallel 37, beta diversity is dominated by nestedness. Notably, these regions are revealed when the piecewise regression method is applied to the relationship between latitude and the difference between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present temperature but not when present energy-water factors are analysed. When this threshold effect of historic climatic change is partialled out, current energy-water variables become more relevant to the nestedness-resultant dissimilarity patterns, while mountainous areas are associated with higher spatial turnover. This result suggests that nested patterns are caused by species losses that are determined by physiological constraints, whereas turnover is associated with speciation and/or Pleistocene refugia. Thus, the new threshold-based view may help reveal the role of historic factors in shaping present amphibian beta diversity patterns

Integration of Machine Learning and Mechanistic Models Accurately Predicts Variation in Cell Density of Glioblastoma Using Multiparametric MRI

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a heterogeneous and lethal brain cancer. These tumors are followed using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which is unable to precisely identify tumor cell invasion, impairing effective surgery and radiation planning. We present a novel hybrid model, based on multiparametric intensities, which combines machine learning (ML) with a mechanistic model of tumor growth to provide spatially resolved tumor cell density predictions. The ML component is an imaging data-driven graph-based semi-supervised learning model and we use the Proliferation-Invasion (PI) mechanistic tumor growth model. We thus refer to the hybrid model as the ML-PI model. The hybrid model was trained using 82 image-localized biopsies from 18 primary GBM patients with pre-operative MRI using a leave-one-patient-out cross validation framework. A Relief algorithm was developed to quantify relative contributions from the data sources. The ML-PI model statistically significantly outperformed (p \u3c 0.001) both individual models, ML and PI, achieving a mean absolute predicted error (MAPE) of 0.106 ± 0.125 versus 0.199 ± 0.186 (ML) and 0.227 ± 0.215 (PI), respectively. Associated Pearson correlation coefficients for ML-PI, ML, and PI were 0.838, 0.518, and 0.437, respectively. The Relief algorithm showed the PI model had the greatest contribution to the result, emphasizing the importance of the hybrid model in achieving the high accuracy

Forty-thousand years of maritime subsistence near a changing shoreline on Alor Island (Indonesia)

We report archaeological findings from a significant new cave site on Alor Island, Indonesia, with an in situ basal date of 40,208-38,454 cal BP. Twenty thousand years older than the earliest Pleistocene site previously known from this island, Makpan retains dense midden deposits of marine shell, fish bone, urchin and crab remains, but few terrestrial species; demonstrating that protein requirements over this time were met almost exclusively from the sea. The dates for initial occupation at Makpan indicate that once Homo sapiens moved into southern Wallacea, settlement of the larger islands in the archipelago occurred rapidly. However, the Makpan sequence also suggests that the use of the cave following initial human arrival was sporadic prior to the terminal Pleistocene about 14,000 years ago, when occupation became intensive, culminating in the formation of a midden. Like the coastal sites on the larger neighbouring island of Timor, the Makpan assemblage shows that maritime technology in the Pleistocene was highly developed in this region. The Makpan assemblage also contains a range of distinctive personal ornaments made on Nautilus shell, which are shared with sites located on Timor and Kisar supporting connectivity between islands from at least the terminal Pleistocene. Makpan's early inhabitants responded to sea-level change by altering the way they used both the site and local resources. Marine food exploitation shows an initial emphasis on sea-urchins, followed by a subsistence switch to molluscs, barnacles, and fish in the dense middle part of the sequence, with crabs well represented in the later occupation. This new record provides further insights into early modern human movements and patterns of occupation between the islands of eastern Nusa Tenggara from ca. 40 ka.The fieldwork and dating for this project was funded by an Australian Research Council Laureate Fellowship to O’Connor (FL120100156) and analysis by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CE170100015)

Elevational Gradients in Bird Diversity in the Eastern Himalaya: An Evaluation of Distribution Patterns and Their Underlying Mechanisms

BACKGROUND: Understanding diversity patterns and the mechanisms underlying those patterns along elevational gradients is critically important for conservation efforts in montane ecosystems, especially those that are biodiversity hotspots. Despite recent advances, consensus on the underlying causes, or even the relative influence of a suite of factors on elevational diversity patterns has remained elusive. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined patterns of species richness, density and range size distribution of birds, and the suite of biotic and abiotic factors (primary productivity, habitat variables, climatic factors and geometric constraints) that governs diversity along a 4500-m elevational gradient in the Eastern Himalayan region, a biodiversity hotspot within the world's tallest mountains. We used point count methods for sampling birds and quadrats for estimating vegetation at 22 sites along the elevational gradient. We found that species richness increased to approximately 2000 m, then declined. We found no evidence that geometric constraints influenced this pattern, whereas actual evapotranspiration (a surrogate for primary productivity) and various habitat variables (plant species richness, shrub density and basal area of trees) accounted for most of the variation in bird species richness. We also observed that ranges of most bird species were narrow along the elevation gradient. We find little evidence to support Rapoport's rule for the birds of Sikkim region of the Himalaya. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: This study in the Eastern Himalaya indicates that species richness of birds is highest at intermediate elevations along one of the most extensive elevational gradients ever examined. Additionally, primary productivity and factors associated with habitat accounted for most of the variation in avian species richness. The diversity peak at intermediate elevations and the narrow elevational ranges of most species suggest important conservation implications: not only should mid-elevation areas be conserved, but the entire gradient requires equal conservation attention

Angiogenesis inhibitor therapies for advanced renal cell carcinoma: Toxicity and treatment patterns in clinical practice from a global medical chart review

The aim of this study was to assess the treatment patterns and safety of sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab in real-world clinical settings in US, Europe and Asia. Medical records were abstracted at 18 community oncology clinics in the US and at 21 tertiary oncology centers in US, Europe and Asia for 883 patients ≥18 years who had histologically/cytologically confirmed diagnosis of advanced RCC and received sunitinib (n=631), sorafenib (n=207) or bevacizumab (n=45) as first‑line treatment. No prior treatment was permitted. Data were collected on all adverse events (AEs) and treatment modifications, including discontinuation, interruption and dose reduction. Treatment duration was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Demographics were similar across treatment groups and regions. Median treatment duration ranged from 6.1 to 10.7 months, 5.1 to 8.5 months and 7.5 to 9.8 months for sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab patients, respectively. Grade 3/4 AEs were experienced by 26.0, 28.0 and 15.6% of sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab patients, respectively. Treatment discontinuations occurred in 62.4 (Asia) to 63.1% (US) sunitinib, 68.8 (Asia) to 90.0% (Europe) sorafenib, and 66.7 (Asia) to 81.8% (US) bevacizumab patients. Globally, treatment modifications due to AEs occurred in 55.1, 54.2 and 50.0% sunitinib, sorafenib and bevacizumab patients, respectively. This study in a large, global cohort of advanced RCC patients found that angiogenesis inhibitors are associated with high rates of AEs and treatment modifications. Findings suggest an unmet need for more tolerable agents for RCC treatment