Using statistics to design and estimate vital rates in matrix population models for a perennial herb

Matrix population models are widely used to assess population status and to inform management decisions. Despite existing theories for building such models, model construction is often partially based on expert opinion. So far, model structure has received relatively little attention, although it may affect estimates of population dynamics. Here, we assessed the consequences of two published matrix structures (a 4 × 4 matrix based on expert opinion and a 10 × 10 matrix based on statistical modeling) for estimates of vital rates and stochastic population dynamics of the long‐lived herb Astragalus scaphoides. We explored the ways in which choice of model structure alters the accuracy (i.e., mean) and precision (i.e., variance) of predicted population dynamics. We found that model structure had a negligible effect on the accuracy and precision of vital rates and stochastic stage distribution. However, the 10 × 10 matrix produced lower estimates of stochastic population growth rates than the 4 × 4 matrix, and more accurately predicted the observed trends in population abundance for three out of four study populations. Moreover, estimates of realized variation in population growth rate due to fluctuations in population stage structure over time were occasionally sensitive to matrix structure, suggesting differential roles of transient dynamics. Our study indicates that statistical modeling for choosing categories in matrix models might be preferable over expert opinion to accurately predict population trends and can provide a more objective way for model construction when the biological knowledge of the species is limited.</p

One size doesn’t fit all: cross-sectional associations between neighborhood walkability, crime and physical activity depends on age and sex of residents

Abstract Background Low-income African American adults are disproportionately affected by obesity and are also least likely to engage in recommended levels of physical activity (Flegal et al. JAMA 303(3):235-41, 2010; Tucker et al. Am J Prev Med 40(4):454-61, 2011). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is an important factor for weight management and control, as well as for reducing disease risk (Andersen et al. Lancet 368(9532):299-304, 2006; Boreham and Riddoch J Sports Sci 19(12):915-29, 2001; Carson et al. PLoS One 8(8):e71417, 2013). While neighborhood greenspace and walkability have been associated with increased MVPA, evidence also suggests that living in areas with high rates of crime limits MVPA. Few studies have examined to what extent the confluence of neighborhood greenspace, walkability and crime might impact MVPA in low-income African American adults nor how associations may vary by age and sex. Methods In 2013 we collected self-reported data on demographics, functional limitations, objective measures of MVPA (accelerometry), neighborhood greenspace (geographic information system), and walkability (street audit) in 791 predominantly African-American adults (mean age 56 years) living in two United States (U.S.) low-income neighborhoods. We also acquired data from the City of Pittsburgh on all crime events within both neighborhoods. Exposure: To examine cross-sectional associations of neighborhood-related variables (i.e., neighborhood greenspace, walkability and crime) with MVPA, we used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Additionally, we examined potential interactions by age (over 65 years) and sex on relationships between neighborhood variables and MVPA. Results Overall, residents engaged in very little to no MVPA regardless of where they lived. However, for women, but not men, under the age of 65 years, living in more walkable neighborhoods was associated with more time engaged in MVPA in (β = 0.55, p = 0.007) as compared to their counterparts living in less walkable areas. Women and men age 65 years and over spent very little time participating in MVPA regardless of neighborhood walkability. Neither greenspace nor crime was associated with MVPA in age-sex subgroups. Conclusions Neighborhood walkability may play a stronger role on MVPA than accessible greenspace or crime in low-income urban communities. Walkability may differentially impact residents depending on their age and sex, which suggests tailoring public health policy design and implementation according to neighborhood demographics to improve activity for all.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135725/1/12889_2016_Article_3959.pd

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p&lt;0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p&lt;0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p&lt;0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP &gt;5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

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Data from: Integrating vital rates explains optimal worker size for resource return by bumble bee workers

1. Size-number trade-offs in reproduction are commonly observed in nature. Bumble bee (Bombus spp.) colonies produce workers that vary considerably in size. This variation suggests that colonies face potential size-number trade-offs when producing workers. 2. Here, we estimated size-based vital rates of Bombus vosnesenskii workers using colonies reared from wild caught queens. We conducted a mark-recapture study to estimate worker survival as a function of body size. We also collected data on pollen and nectar loads as well as foraging trips using a radio-frequency identification system to estimate daily resource return as a function of body size. We integrated survival and daily resource return to estimate lifetime resource collection and offset these estimates by the size-based worker production costs. 3. We found size-based trade-offs among workers of different sizes. Smaller workers had higher survival, but larger workers returned with more resources per day. The largest workers made slightly fewer foraging trips per day. 4. Overall, larger workers made the greatest lifetime contribution to both nectar and pollen collection. However, once the benefits of larger workers are offset by their higher production costs, intermediate-sized workers were the optimal for net resource contribution according to our models. Many previous studies have found that larger workers outperformed smaller workers with foraging and in-nest tasks, yet these studies have not integrated multiple fitness components or worker production costs to quantify net resource contribution towards colony growth. 5. Accounting for tradeoffs between costs and performance changed our conclusions about optimal body size from being large to being near the observed average. Similar approaches of integrating multiple vital rates may resolve apparently suboptimal life histories in other taxa

Larger Workers Outperform Smaller Workers Across Resource Environments: An Evaluation of Demographic Data Using Functional Linear Models

Behavior and organization of social groups is thought to be vital to the functioning of societies, yet the contributions of various roles within social groups toward population growth and dynamics have been difficult to quantify. A common approach to quantifying these role-based contributions is evaluating the number of individuals conducting certain roles, which ignores how behavior might scale up to effects at the population-level. Manipulative experiments are another common approach to determine population-level effects, but they often ignore potential feedbacks associated with these various roles. Here, we evaluate the effects of worker size distribution in bumblebee colonies on worker production in 24 observational colonies across three environments, using functional linear models. Functional linear models are an underused correlative technique that has been used to assess lag effects of environmental drivers on plant performance. We demonstrate potential applications of this technique for exploring high-dimensional ecological systems, such as the contributions of individuals with different traits to colony dynamics. We found that more larger workers had mostly positive effects and more smaller workers had negative effects on worker production. Most of these effects were only detected under low or fluctuating resource environments suggesting that the advantage of colonies with larger-bodied workers becomes more apparent under stressful conditions. We also demonstrate the wider ecological application of functional linear models. We highlight the advantages and limitations when considering these models, and how they are a valuable complement to many of these performance-based and manipulative experiments