Natural Afforestation on Abandoned Agricultural Lands during Post-Soviet Period: A Comparative Landsat Data Analysis of Bordering Regions in Russia and Belarus

Remote monitoring of natural afforestation processes on abandoned agricultural lands is crucial for assessments and predictions of forest cover dynamics, biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services. In this work, we built on the general approach of combining satellite and field data for forest mapping and developed a simple and robust method for afforestation dynamics assessment. This method is based on Landsat imagery and index-based thresholding and specifically targets suitability for limited field data. We demonstrated method’s details and performance by conducting a case study for two bordering districts of Rudnya (Smolensk region, Russia) and Liozno (Vitebsk region, Belarus). This study area was selected because of the striking differences in the development of the agrarian sectors of these countries during the post-Soviet period (1991-present day). We used Landsat data to generate a consistent time series of five-year cloud-free multispectral composite images for the 1985–2020 period via the Google Earth Engine. Three spectral indices, each specifically designed for either forest, water or bare soil identification, were used for forest cover and arable land mapping. Threshold values for indices classification were both determined and verified based on field data and additional samples obtained by visual interpretation of very high-resolution satellite imagery. The developed approach was applied over the full Landsat time series to quantify 35-year afforestation dynamics over the study area. About 32% of initial arable lands and grasslands in the Russian district were afforested by the end of considered period, while the agricultural lands in Belarus’ district decreased only by around 5%. Obtained results are in the good agreement with the previous studies dedicated to the agricultural lands abandonment in the Eastern Europe region. The proposed method could be further developed into a general universally applicable technique for forest cover mapping in different growing conditions at local and regional spatial levels

Natural Afforestation on Abandoned Agricultural Lands during Post-Soviet Period: A Comparative Landsat Data Analysis of Bordering Regions in Russia and Belarus

Remote monitoring of natural afforestation processes on abandoned agricultural lands is crucial for assessments and predictions of forest cover dynamics, biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services. In this work, we built on the general approach of combining satellite and field data for forest mapping and developed a simple and robust method for afforestation dynamics assessment. This method is based on Landsat imagery and index-based thresholding and specifically targets suitability for limited field data. We demonstrated method’s details and performance by conducting a case study for two bordering districts of Rudnya (Smolensk region, Russia) and Liozno (Vitebsk region, Belarus). This study area was selected because of the striking differences in the development of the agrarian sectors of these countries during the post-Soviet period (1991-present day). We used Landsat data to generate a consistent time series of five-year cloud-free multispectral composite images for the 1985–2020 period via the Google Earth Engine. Three spectral indices, each specifically designed for either forest, water or bare soil identification, were used for forest cover and arable land mapping. Threshold values for indices classification were both determined and verified based on field data and additional samples obtained by visual interpretation of very high-resolution satellite imagery. The developed approach was applied over the full Landsat time series to quantify 35-year afforestation dynamics over the study area. About 32% of initial arable lands and grasslands in the Russian district were afforested by the end of considered period, while the agricultural lands in Belarus’ district decreased only by around 5%. Obtained results are in the good agreement with the previous studies dedicated to the agricultural lands abandonment in the Eastern Europe region. The proposed method could be further developed into a general universally applicable technique for forest cover mapping in different growing conditions at local and regional spatial levels

The efficiency of tools for social interaction between public authorities and civil society

The aim of the article is to assess the effectiveness of the current tools for interaction between public authorities and civil society in Ukraine. A distinctive feature of this study is the use of the content analysis to study the content of consultations of central government bodies with the public, discussions of draft laws, decrees, resolutions, orders, petitions of citizens, as well as recommendations of expert opinions and proposals of public councils and measures for their implementation. The analysis allowed identifying significant shortcomings in organizing work to establish cooperation between central government bodies and the public. These shortcomings involve the dominance of a purely statistical approach to analyzing the petitions of citizens, neglect of public consultations, disregard for the proposals of public expert committees, and a formal approach to the activities of public councils at the ministries. The decreasing effectiveness of interaction between public authorities and civil society in Ukraine is noted, which is caused by the bureaucratization of this process on the one hand, and by the lack of citizens’ skills to defend their position in the legitimate field of social and political relations, on the other hand

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species$^{1,2}$. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies$^{3,4}$. Here, leveraging global tree databases$^{5,6,7}$, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions

The number of tree species on Earth

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global groundsourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are 73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit.

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions