Benefits of once-daily therapies in the treatment of hypertension

In patients with hypertension, 24-hour blood pressure control is the major therapeutic goal. The number of daily doses is one characteristic of an antihypertensive agent that may affect the adequacy of 24-hour control. One measure of therapeutic coverage is the 24-hour trough-to-peak ratio, which determines the suitability of an agent for once-daily administration. The closer an agent is to a 100% trough-to-peak ratio, the more uniform the 24-hour coverage and therefore blood pressure control. High trough-to-peak ratio, long-acting antihypertensive medications lower blood pressure more gradually, which reduces the likelihood of adverse events attributable to abrupt drug action that occurs with shorter-acting agents. In hypertension, the natural diurnal variation of blood pressure may be altered, including elevated nighttime pressures. An optimal once-daily hypertension therapy would not only lower blood pressure but also normalize any blunted circadian variations in blood pressure. The benefits of once-daily agents with sustained therapeutic coverage may also be explained, in part, by increased patient adherence to simpler regimens as well as lower loss of blood pressure control during virtually inevitable intermittent noncompliance. Studies have demonstrated that once-daily antihypertensive agents have the highest adherence compared with twice-daily or multiple daily doses, including greater adherence to the prescribed timing of doses

Disparities in hypertension and cardiovascular disease in blacks: The critical role of medication adherence

Blacks are two to three times as likely as whites to die of preventable heart disease and stroke. Declines in mortality from heart disease have not eliminated racial disparities. Control and effective treatment of hypertension, a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, among blacks is less than in whites and remains a challenge. One of the driving forces behind this racial/ethnic disparity is medication nonadherence whose cause is embedded in social determinants. Eight practical approaches to addressing medication adherence with the potential to attenuate disparities were identified and include: (1) patient engagement strategies, (2) consumer-directed health care, (3) patient portals, (4) smart apps and text messages, (5) digital pillboxes, (6) pharmacist-led engagement, (7) cardiac rehabilitation, and (8) cognitive-based behavior. However, while data suggest that these strategies may improve medication adherence, the effect on ameliorating racial/ethnic disparities is not certain. This review describes the relationship between disparities and medication adherence, which likely plays a role in persistent disparities in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

Screening and Treatment for Subclinical Hypertensive Heart Disease in Emergency Department Patients With Uncontrolled Blood Pressure: A Cost‐effectiveness Analysis

ObjectivesPoorly controlled hypertension (HTN) is extremely prevalent and, if left unchecked, subclinical hypertensive heart disease (SHHD) may ensue leading to conditions such as heart failure. To address this, we designed a multidisciplinary program to detect and treat SHHD in a high‐risk, predominantly African American community. The primary objective of this study was to determine the cost‐effectiveness of our program.MethodsStudy costs associated with identifying and treating patients with SHHD were calculated and a sensitivity analysis was performed comparing the effect of four parameters on cost estimates. These included prevalence of disease, effectiveness of treatment (regression of SHHD, reversal of left ventricular hypertrophy [LVH], or blood pressure [BP] control as separate measures), echocardiogram costs, and participant time/travel costs. The parent study for this analysis was a single‐center, randomized controlled trial comparing cardiac effects of standard and intense (<120/80 mm Hg) BP goals at 1 year in patients with uncontrolled HTN and SHHD. A total of 149 patients (94% African American) were enrolled, 133 (89%) had SHHD, 123 (93%) of whom were randomized, with 88 (72%) completing the study. Patients were clinically evaluated and medically managed over the course of 1 year with repeated echocardiograms. Costs of these interventions were analyzed and, following standard practices, a cost per quality‐adjusted life‐year (QALY) less than $50,000 was defined as cost‐effective.ResultsTotal costs estimates for the program ranged from$117,044 to $119,319. Cost per QALY was dependent on SHHD prevalence and the measure of effectiveness but not input costs. Cost‐effectiveness (cost per QALY less than$50,000) was achieved when SHHD prevalence exceeded 11.1% for regression of SHHD, 4.7% for reversal of LVH, and 2.9% for achievement of BP control.ConclusionsIn this cohort of predominantly African American patients with uncontrolled HTN, SHHD prevalence was high and screening with treatment was cost‐effective across a range of assumptions. These data suggest that multidisciplinary programs such as this can be a cost‐effective mechanism to mitigate the cardiovascular consequences of HTN in emergency department patients with uncontrolled BP.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136283/1/acem13122.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136283/2/acem13122_am.pd

Deciphering the therapeutic potential of trimetazidine in rheumatoid arthritis via targeting mi-RNA128a, TLR4 signaling pathway, and adenosine-induced FADD-microvesicular shedding: In vivo and in silico study

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a debilitating autoimmune condition characterized by chronic synovitis, joint damage, and inflammation, leading to impaired joint functionality. Existing RA treatments, although effective to some extent, are not without side effects, prompting a search for more potent therapies. Recent research has revealed the critical role of FAS-associated death domain protein (FADD) microvesicular shedding in RA pathogenesis, expanding its scope beyond apoptosis to include inflammatory and immune pathways. This study aimed to investigate the intricate relationship between mi-RNA 128a, autoimmune and inflammatory pathways, and adenosine levels in modulating FADD expression and microvesicular shedding in a Freund’s complete adjuvant (FCA) induced RA rat model and further explore the antirheumatoid potency of trimetazidine (TMZ). The FCA treated model exhibited significantly elevated levels of serum fibrogenic, inflammatory, immunological and rheumatological diagnostic markers, confirming successful RA induction. Our results revealed that the FCA-induced RA model showed a significant reduction in the expression of FADD in paw tissue and increased microvesicular FADD shedding in synovial fluid, which was attributed to the significant increase in the expression of the epigenetic miRNA 128a gene in addition to the downregulation of adenosine levels. These findings were further supported by the significant activation of the TLR4/MYD88 pathway and its downstream inflammatory IkB/NFB markers. Interestingly, TMZ administration significantly improved, with a potency similar to methotrexate (MTX), the deterioration effect of FCA treatment, as evidenced by a significant attenuation of fibrogenic, inflammatory, immunological, and rheumatological markers. Our investigations indicated that TMZ uniquely acted by targeting epigenetic miRNA128a expression and elevating adenosine levels in paw tissue, leading to increased expression of FADD of paw tissue and mitigated FADD microvesicular shedding in synovial fluid. Furthermore, the group treated with TMZ showed significant downregulation of TLR4/MYD88 and their downstream TRAF6, IRAK and NF-kB. Together, our study unveils the significant potential of TMZ as an antirheumatoid candidate, offering anti-inflammatory effects through various mechanisms, including modulation of the FADD-epigenetic regulator mi-RNA 128a, adenosine levels, and the TLR4 signaling pathway in joint tissue, but also attenuation of FADD microvesicular shedding in synovial fluid. These findings further highlight the synergistic administration of TMZ and MTX as a potential approach to reduce adverse effects of MTX while improving therapeutic efficacy.Peer Reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

Deciphering the therapeutic potential of trimetazidine in rheumatoid arthritis via targeting mi-RNA128a, TLR4 signaling pathway, and adenosine-induced FADD-microvesicular shedding: In vivo and in silico study

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a debilitating autoimmune condition characterized by chronic synovitis, joint damage, and inflammation, leading to impaired joint functionality. Existing RA treatments, although effective to some extent, are not without side effects, prompting a search for more potent therapies. Recent research has revealed the critical role of FAS-associated death domain protein (FADD) microvesicular shedding in RA pathogenesis, expanding its scope beyond apoptosis to include inflammatory and immune pathways. This study aimed to investigate the intricate relationship between mi-RNA 128a, autoimmune and inflammatory pathways, and adenosine levels in modulating FADD expression and microvesicular shedding in a Freund’s complete adjuvant (FCA) induced RA rat model and further explore the antirheumatoid potency of trimetazidine (TMZ). The FCA treated model exhibited significantly elevated levels of serum fibrogenic, inflammatory, immunological and rheumatological diagnostic markers, confirming successful RA induction. Our results revealed that the FCA-induced RA model showed a significant reduction in the expression of FADD in paw tissue and increased microvesicular FADD shedding in synovial fluid, which was attributed to the significant increase in the expression of the epigenetic miRNA 128a gene in addition to the downregulation of adenosine levels. These findings were further supported by the significant activation of the TLR4/MYD88 pathway and its downstream inflammatory IkB/NFB markers. Interestingly, TMZ administration significantly improved, with a potency similar to methotrexate (MTX), the deterioration effect of FCA treatment, as evidenced by a significant attenuation of fibrogenic, inflammatory, immunological, and rheumatological markers. Our investigations indicated that TMZ uniquely acted by targeting epigenetic miRNA128a expression and elevating adenosine levels in paw tissue, leading to increased expression of FADD of paw tissue and mitigated FADD microvesicular shedding in synovial fluid. Furthermore, the group treated with TMZ showed significant downregulation of TLR4/MYD88 and their downstream TRAF6, IRAK and NF-kB. Together, our study unveils the significant potential of TMZ as an antirheumatoid candidate, offering anti-inflammatory effects through various mechanisms, including modulation of the FADD-epigenetic regulator mi-RNA 128a, adenosine levels, and the TLR4 signaling pathway in joint tissue, but also attenuation of FADD microvesicular shedding in synovial fluid. These findings further highlight the synergistic administration of TMZ and MTX as a potential approach to reduce adverse effects of MTX while improving therapeutic efficacy

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions