A Dynamic Aspartate-to-Alanine Aminotransferase Ratio Provides Valid Predictions of Incident Severe Liver Disease

The aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) is associated with liver fibrosis, but its predictive performance is suboptimal. We hypothesized that the association between AAR and liver disease depends on absolute transaminase levels and developed and validated a model to predict liver-related outcomes in the general population. A Cox regression model based on age, AAR, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level (dynamic AAR [dAAR]) using restricted cubic splines was developed in Finnish population-based health-examination surveys (FINRISK, 2002-2012; n = 18,067) with linked registry data for incident liver-related hospitalizations, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver death. The model was externally validated for liver-related outcomes in a Swedish population cohort (Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk [AMORIS] subcohort; n = 126,941) and for predicting outcomes and/or prevalent fibrosis/cirrhosis in biopsied patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), chronic hepatitis C, or alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). The dynamic AAR model predicted liver-related outcomes both overall (optimism-corrected C-statistic, 0.81) and in subgroup analyses of the FINRISK cohort and identified persons with >10% risk for liver-related outcomes within 10 years. In independent cohorts, the C-statistic for predicting liver-related outcomes up to a 10-year follow-up was 0.72 in the AMORIS cohort, 0.81 in NAFLD, and 0.75 in ALD. Area-under-the-curve (AUC) for detecting prevalent cirrhosis was 0.80-0.83 in NAFLD, 0.80 in hepatitis C, but only 0.71 in ALD. In ALD, model performance improved when using aspartate aminotransferase instead of ALT in the model (C-statistic, 0.84 for outcome; AUC, 0.82 for prevalent cirrhosis). Conclusion: A dAAR score provides prospective predictions for the risk of incident severe liver outcomes in the general population and helps detect advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. The dAAR score could potentially be used for screening the unselected general population and as a trigger for further liver evaluations.Peer reviewe

Benchmarking Tilapia Aquaculture Systems in Egypt: Synergies, Trade-offs, and Entry Points for Sustainable Development

The growing demand for aquatic foods requires the sustainable intensification of aquaculture systems. However, policy and investment decisions for sustainable intensification of aquaculture systems are often hindered by a lack of benchmarking data related to performance of such systems. Abstract accepted and presented at WAS2022 – published in the book of abstracts at pag 606

The European NAFLD Registry: A real-world longitudinal cohort study of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), a progressive liver disease that is closely associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia, represents an increasing global public health challenge. There is significant variability in the disease course: the majority exhibit only fat accumulation in the liver but a significant minority develop a necroinflammatory form of the disease (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH) that may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. At present our understanding of pathogenesis, disease natural history and long-term outcomes remain incomplete. There is a need for large, well characterised patient cohorts that may be used to address these knowledge gaps and to support the development of better biomarkers and novel therapies. The European NAFLD Registry is an international, prospectively recruited observational cohort study that aims to establish a large, highly-phenotyped patient cohort and linked bioresource. Here we describe the infrastructure, data management and monitoring plans, and the standard operating procedures implemented to ensure the timely and systematic collection of high-quality data and samples. Already recruiting subjects at secondary/tertiary care centres across Europe, the Registry is supporting the European Union IMI2-funded LITMUS 'Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis' consortium, which is a major international effort to robustly validate biomarkers that diagnose, risk stratify and/or monitor NAFLD progression and liver fibrosis stage. The European NAFLD Registry has the demonstrable capacity to support research and biomarker development at scale and pace

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: 2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226. FINDINGS: Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression. INTERPRETATION: Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. METHODS This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: 2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226. FINDINGS Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression. INTERPRETATION Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases. FUNDING Innovative Medicines Initiative 2

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BackgroundHistologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD.MethodsThis was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0–4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0–2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: 2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.FindingsOf 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44–63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33–91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62–0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70–0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64–0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63–0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.InterpretationSimple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease : Aspects on Diagnosis and Long-term Prognosis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease affecting approximately 25% of the global population and is commonly recognized as the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome. The histological spectrum of NAFLD ranges from isolated steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), with risk of developing fibrosis and subsequent cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The gold standard for diagnosing NAFLD is liver biopsy. However, because of its invasive nature, several non-invasive methods have been developed and validated in evaluating fat and fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. Liver fat content can be assessed using various methods. The conventional histopathological method consists of a visual semiquantitative approach in which the pathologist uses a four-point scale: grade 0 corresponds to fat deposition in &lt;5% of hepatocytes and grade 1−3 (which is needed for the diagnosis of NAFLD) corresponds to ≥5%. An alternate approach is to quantitatively assess steatosis using stereological point counting (SPC) – which rely on liver biopsy. However, in vivo proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) is a reliable noninvasive method that can be used to quantitatively assess total hepatic lipid content, or proton density fat fraction (PDFF). In Paper I we compared the conventional semiquantitative histological method (grade 0-3) with SPC and 1H-MRS. We found a strong positive correlation between 1H-MRS and SPC, whereas the correlations between 1H-MRS or SPC and histopathological grading were substantially weaker. Using the widely used cut-off value of PDFF ≥5%, all participants were found to have steatosis (specificity 100%, sensitivity 53%). Reducing the cut-off value to 3% maintained 100% specificity while increasing sensitivity to 79%. In Paper IV we evaluated quantitative steatosis, by SPC, in 106 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients during a 20-year follow-up. SPC was independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and development of T2DM. Moreover, in the 59 patients with sequential biopsies (approximately 10 years apart), a reduction of quantitative hepatic steatosis decreased the all-time risk of developing T2DM. NASH is commonly seen as a histological feature portending a worse prognosis in NAFLD. Interestingly, no dual biopsy study has ever shown that NASH predicts fibrosis progression. Yet, NASH is seen as a surrogate marker in pharmaceutical trials – were resolution in NASH is equivalent to future resolution of fibrosis. In Paper II we conducted a long-term follow-up study (20 years) in a large cohort of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients (n=646), in a collaboration with Karolinska Institute. We could not ascertain that NASH had any effect on all-cause, or disease-specific mortality. However, higher stages of fibrosis predicted all-cause and disease specific mortality. In Paper III, we present 129 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients, in which we had prospective, longitudinal data. They were included between 1988 and 1993. All patients alive, were re-invited 2003-2005 and 2013-2015. Dual biopsies were present in 68 patients, and three consecutive biopsies were available in 33 patients. Results showed that NAFLD is a highly heterogeneous disease, with 9.3% developing end-stage liver disease and 16% progressing to advanced stages of fibrosis without any clinically significant baseline data predicting disease progression. In summary, when using 1H-MRS as a diagnostic method for NAFLD, the diagnostic cut-off should be reduced from 5% to 3%. Furthermore, quantitative amount of hepatic steatosis could be used to stratify patients with NAFLD related to future risk of developing T2DM. Moreover, we have shown that NASH does not predict future all-cause or disease-specific mortality nor end-stage liver disease, therefore a different surrogate marker should be used in clinical trials when assessing NAFLD improvement, so to not imbue false reliance in new therapies. Lastly, we have shown that NAFLD has a more dismal prognosis than previously reported, and that it is unexpectedly difficult to predict fibrosis progression in individual NAFLD patients, emphasizing the need for robust non-invasive biomarkers suitable to monitor large number of patients

The Amount of Liver Fat Predicts Mortality and Development of Type 2 Diabetes in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND &amp; AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor for development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to evaluate whether conventional histological grading of steatosis and accurate quantification of fat content in liver biopsies using stereological point counting (SPC) can predict mortality and future development of T2DM in NAFLD patients. METHODS: 129 patients with biopsy proven NAFLD, enrolled between 1988 and 1992, were re-evaluated on two occasions, after 13.7 (±1.5) and 23.2 (±6.8) years. In patients accepting to undergo the procedure, repeat liver biopsies were performed on each follow-up and were evaluated with conventional histopathological methodology and SPC. RESULTS: Of the 106 patients without T2DM at baseline, 66 (62%) developed T2DM during a mean follow-up of 23.2 (± 6.8) years. Steatosis grade and liver fat measured with SPC independently (adjusted for age, BMI, fibrosis stage) predicted development of T2DM with an aHR of 1.60 per grade and 1.03 for each SPC percentage increase, respectively. Overall mortality and development of T2DM was more common in patients with grade 3 steatosis compared to lower grades of steatosis. Liver fat measured with SPC was significant for overall mortality (aHR 1.04). In patients that underwent repeat biopsy, reduction of liver fat measured with SPC was associated with decreased risk of developing T2DM (aHR 0.91 for each SPC percentage decrease). CONCLUSION: Steatosis grade and liver fat measured with SPC predict mortality and the risk of developing T2DM in NAFLD. Reduction of liver fat decreases the risk of developing T2DM

Established and emerging factors affecting the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most common chronic liver disease affecting approximately 25% of the global population. Although a majority of NAFLD patients will never experience liver-related symptoms it is estimated that 5-10% will develop cirrhosis-related complications with risk of death or need for liver transplantation. NAFLD is closely associated with cardiovascular disease and components of the metabolic syndrome. However, NAFLD is not uncommon in lean individuals and may in these subjects represent a different entity with separate pathophysiological mechanisms involved implying a higher risk for development of end-stage liver disease. There is considerable fluctuation in the histopathological course of NAFLD that may partly be attributed to lifestyle factors and dietary composition. Nutrients such as fructose, monounsaturated fatty acids, and trans-fatty acids may aggravate NAFLD. Presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus seems to be the most important clinical predictor of liver-related morbidity and mortality in NAFLD. Apart from severity of the metabolic syndrome, genetic polymorphisms and environmental factors, such as moderate alcohol consumption, may explain the variation in histopathological and clinical outcome among NAFLD patients. (c) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Funding Agencies|Gilead Sciences, Inc.Gilead Sciences</p