Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of sociohydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001)

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3

Past megadroughts in central Europe were longer, more severe and less warm than modern droughts

Megadroughts are notable manifestations of the American Southwest, but not so much of the European climate. By using long-term hydrological and meteorological observations, as well as paleoclimate reconstructions, here we show that central Europe has experienced much longer and severe droughts during the Spörer Minimum (~AD 1400–1480) and Dalton Minimum (~AD 1770–1840), than the ones observed during the 21st century. These two megadroughts appear to be linked with a cold state of the North Atlantic Ocean and enhanced winter atmospheric blocking activity over the British Isles and western part of Europe, concurrent with reduced solar forcing and explosive volcanism. Moreover, we show that the recent drought events (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018), are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium.Central Europe experienced long-lasting droughts during the Spörer and Dalton solar minima around AD 1450 and 1800 that were more severe and extensive than those observed in the 21st century, according to palaeoclimate reconstructions

A tree ring-based hydroclimate reconstruction for eastern Europe reveals large-scale teleconnection patterns

Funder: alfred wegener institute helmholtz centre for polar and marine research; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003207Funder: Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) (1014)AbstractWe present a new beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree-ring width composite chronology from five natural low-elevation forests in eastern Romania, which represent the species’ continental distribution limit. Our regional beech chronology reflects April–June hydroclimate variability in form of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index over large parts of Romania, Ukraine, and the Republic of Moldova, for which high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence is broadly missing. Most of the reconstructed hydroclimatic extremes back to 1768 CE are confirmed by documentary evidences, and a robust association is found with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic. Reconstructed pluvials coincide with a high-pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean and north-western Europe, and with a low-pressure system over south-western, central and eastern Europe, whereas historical droughts coincide with a high-pressure system over Europe and a low-pressure system over the central part of the Atlantic Ocean. Our study demonstrates the potential to produce well-replicated, multi-centennial beech chronologies for eastern Europe to reconstruct regional hydroclimate variation and better understand the causes and consequences of large-scale teleconnection patterns.</jats:p

Transfer of environmental signals from the surface to the underground at Ascunsă Cave, Romania

We present here the results of a 4-year environmental monitoring program at Ascunsă Cave (southwestern Romania) designed to help us understand how climate information is transferred through the karst system and archived by speleothems. The air temperature inside the cave is around 7 °C, with slight differences between the upper and lower parts of the main passage. CO2 concentrations in cave air have a seasonal signal, with summer minima and winter maxima. These might indicate the existence of an organic matter reservoir deep within the epikarst that continues to decompose over the winter, and CO2 concentrations are possibly modulated by seasonal differences in cave ventilation. The maximum values of CO2 show a rise after the summer of 2014, from around 2000 to about 3500 ppm, following a rise in surface temperature. Using two newly designed types of water–air equilibrators, we were able to determine the concentration of CO2 dissolved in drip water by measuring its concentration in the equilibrator headspace and then using Henry's law to calculate its concentration in water. This method opens the possibility of continuous data logging using infrared technology, without the need for costly and less reliable chemical determinations. The local meteoric water line (δ2H  =  7.7 δ18O + 10.1), constructed using monthly aggregated rainfall samples, is similar to the global one, revealing the Atlantic as the strongly dominant vapor source. The deuterium excess values, as high as 17 ‰, indicate that precipitation has an important evaporative component, possibly given by moisture recycling over the European continent. The variability of stable isotopes in drip water is similar at all points inside the cave, suggesting that the monitored drip sites are draining a homogenous reservoir. Drip rates, as well as stable isotopes, indicate that the transfer time of water from the surface is on the order of a few days

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3