Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings

Funding: National Science Foundation (NSF). Grant Number: 1737788 and NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoc Fellow Program. Grant Number: NA18NWS4620043B.Warming in Central Asia has been accelerating over the past three decades and is expected to intensify through the end of this century. Here, we develop a summer temperature reconstruction for western Mongolia spanning eight centuries (1269–2004 C.E.) using delta blue intensity measurements from annual rings of Siberian larch. A significant cooling response is observed in the year following major volcanic events and up to five years post-eruption. Observed summer temperatures since the 1990s are the warmest over the past eight centuries, an observation that is also well captured in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Projections for summer temperature relative to observations suggest further warming of between ∼3°C and 6°C by the end of the century (2075–2099 cf. 1950–2004) under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We conclude that projected future warming lies beyond the range of natural climate variability for the past millennium as estimated by our reconstruction.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A long-term context (931–2005 C.E.) for rapid warming over Central Asia

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Science Reviews 121 (2015): 89-97, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.020.Warming over Mongolia and adjacent Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, to local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and the significance of major features of the past millennium such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) both of which can vary globally. Here we use an extensive collection of living and subfossil wood samples from temperature-sensitive trees to produce a millennial-length, validated reconstruction of summer temperatures for Mongolia and Central Asia from 931 to 2005 CE. This tree-ring reconstruction shows general agreement with the MCA (warming) and LIA (cooling) trends, a significant volcanic signature, and warming in the 20th and 21st Century. Recent warming (2000-2005) exceeds that from any other time and is concurrent with, and likely exacerbated, the impact of extreme drought (1999-2002) that resulted in massive livestock loss across Mongolia.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants AGS-PRF #1137729, ATM0117442, and AGS0402474

Three centuries of shifting hydroclimatic regimes across the Mongolian Breadbasket

In its continuing move toward resource independence, Mongolia has recently entered a new agricultural era. Large crop fields and center-pivot irrigation have been established in the last 10 years across Mongolia's "Breadbasket": the Bulgan, Selenge and Tov aimags of northcentral Mongolia. Since meteorological records are typically short and spatially diffuse, little is known about the frequency and scale of past droughts in this region. We use six chronologies from the eastern portion of the breadbasket region to reconstruct streamflow of the Yeruu River. These chronologies accounted for 60.8% of May–September streamflow from 1959 to 1987 and 74.1% from 1988 to 2001. All split, calibration-verification statistics were positive, indicating significant model reconstruction. Reconstructed Yeruu River streamflow indicates the 20th century to be wetter than the two prior centuries. When comparing the new reconstruction to an earlier reconstruction of Selenge River streamflow, representing the western portion of the breadbasket region, both records document more pluvial events of greater intensity during 20th century versus prior centuries and indicate that the recent decade of drought that lead to greater aridity across the landscape is not unusual in the context of the last 300 years. Most interestingly, variability analyses indicate that the larger river basin in the western breadbasket (the Selenge basin) experiences greater swings in hydroclimate at multi-decadal to centennial time scales while the smaller basin in the eastern portion of the breadbasket (the Yeruu basin) is more stable. From this comparison, there would be less risk in agricultural productivity in the eastern breadbasket region, although the western breadbasket region can potentially be enormously productive for decades at a time before becoming quite dry for an equally long period of time. These results indicate that farmers and water managers need to prepare for both pluvial conditions like those in the late-1700s, and drier conditions like those during the early and mid-1800s. Recent studies have indicated that cultures with plentiful resources are more vulnerable when these resources become diminished. Thus, the instrumental records of the 20th century should not be used as a model of moisture availability. Most importantly, the geographic mismatch between precipitation, infrastructure, and water demand could turn out to be particularly acute for countries like Mongolia, especially as these patterns can switch in space through time

The contribution of insects to global forest deadwood decomposition

The amount of carbon stored in deadwood is equivalent to about 8 per cent of the global forest carbon stocks. The decomposition of deadwood is largely governed by climate with decomposer groups—such as microorganisms and insects—contributing to variations in the decomposition rates. At the global scale, the contribution of insects to the decomposition of deadwood and carbon release remains poorly understood. Here we present a field experiment of wood decomposition across 55 forest sites and 6 continents. We find that the deadwood decomposition rates increase with temperature, and the strongest temperature effect is found at high precipitation levels. Precipitation affects the decomposition rates negatively at low temperatures and positively at high temperatures. As a net effect—including the direct consumption by insects and indirect effects through interactions with microorganisms—insects accelerate the decomposition in tropical forests (3.9% median mass loss per year). In temperate and boreal forests, we find weak positive and negative effects with a median mass loss of 0.9 per cent and −0.1 per cent per year, respectively. Furthermore, we apply the experimentally derived decomposition function to a global map of deadwood carbon synthesized from empirical and remote-sensing data, obtaining an estimate of 10.9 ± 3.2 petagram of carbon per year released from deadwood globally, with 93 per cent originating from tropical forests. Globally, the net effect of insects may account for 29 per cent of the carbon flux from deadwood, which suggests a functional importance of insects in the decomposition of deadwood and the carbon cycle

The 3-Hydroxy-2-Butanone Pathway Is Required for Pectobacterium carotovorum Pathogenesis

Pectobacterium species are necrotrophic bacterial pathogens that cause soft rot diseases in potatoes and several other crops worldwide. Gene expression data identified Pectobacterium carotovorum subsp. carotovorum budB, which encodes the α-acetolactate synthase enzyme in the 2,3-butanediol pathway, as more highly expressed in potato tubers than potato stems. This pathway is of interest because volatiles produced by the 2,3-butanediol pathway have been shown to act as plant growth promoting molecules, insect attractants, and, in other bacterial species, affect virulence and fitness. Disruption of the 2,3-butanediol pathway reduced virulence of P. c. subsp. carotovorum WPP14 on potato tubers and impaired alkalinization of growth medium and potato tubers under anaerobic conditions. Alkalinization of the milieu via this pathway may aid in plant cell maceration since Pectobacterium pectate lyases are most active at alkaline pH

Whole genome identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis vaccine candidates by comprehensive data mining and bioinformatic analyses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</it>, the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), infects ~8 million annually culminating in ~2 million deaths. Moreover, about one third of the population is latently infected, 10% of which develop disease during lifetime. Current approved prophylactic TB vaccines (BCG and derivatives thereof) are of variable efficiency in adult protection against pulmonary TB (0%–80%), and directed essentially against early phase infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A genome-scale dataset was constructed by analyzing published data of: (1) global gene expression studies under conditions which simulate intra-macrophage stress, dormancy, persistence and/or reactivation; (2) cellular and humoral immunity, and vaccine potential. This information was compiled along with revised annotation/bioinformatic characterization of selected gene products and <it>in silico </it>mapping of T-cell epitopes. Protocols for scoring, ranking and prioritization of the antigens were developed and applied.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cross-matching of literature and <it>in silico</it>-derived data, in conjunction with the prioritization scheme and biological rationale, allowed for selection of 189 putative vaccine candidates from the entire genome. Within the 189 set, the relative distribution of antigens in 3 functional categories differs significantly from their distribution in the whole genome, with reduction in the Conserved hypothetical category (due to improved annotation) and enrichment in Lipid and in Virulence categories. Other prominent representatives in the 189 set are the PE/PPE proteins; iron sequestration, nitroreductases and proteases, all within the Intermediary metabolism and respiration category; ESX secretion systems, resuscitation promoting factors and lipoproteins, all within the Cell wall category. Application of a ranking scheme based on qualitative and quantitative scores, resulted in a list of 45 best-scoring antigens, of which: 74% belong to the dormancy/reactivation/resuscitation classes; 30% belong to the Cell wall category; 13% are classical vaccine candidates; 9% are categorized Conserved hypotheticals, all potentially very potent T-cell antigens.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The comprehensive literature and <it>in silico</it>-based analyses allowed for the selection of a repertoire of 189 vaccine candidates, out of the whole-genome 3989 ORF products. This repertoire, which was ranked to generate a list of 45 top-hits antigens, is a platform for selection of genes covering all stages of <it>M. tuberculosis </it>infection, to be incorporated in rBCG or subunit-based vaccines.</p

Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings

Warming in Central Asia has been accelerating over the past three decades and is expected to intensify through the end of this century. Here, we develop a summer temperature reconstruction for western Mongolia spanning eight centuries (1269–2004 C.E.) using delta blue intensity measurements from annual rings of Siberian larch. A significant cooling response is observed in the year following major volcanic events and up to five years post-eruption. Observed summer temperatures since the 1990s are the warmest over the past eight centuries, an observation that is also well captured in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Projections for summer temperature relative to observations suggest further warming of between ∼3°C and 6°C by the end of the century (2075–2099 cf. 1950–2004) under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We conclude that projected future warming lies beyond the range of natural climate variability for the past millennium as estimated by our reconstruction.</p

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Western Mongolia 800 Year Summer Temperature Reconstruction

This archived Paleoclimatology Study is available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), under the World Data Service (WDS) for Paleoclimatology. The associated NCEI study type is Climate Reconstruction. The data include parameters of climate reconstructions|tree ring with a geographic location of Mongolia, Eastern Asia. The time period coverage is from 772 to -55 in calendar years before present (BP). See metadata information for parameter and study location details. Please cite this study when using the data

NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Davi - Bairam Uul/Khalzan Khamar blue intensity - LASI - ITRDB MONG043

This archived Paleoclimatology Study is available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), under the World Data Service (WDS) for Paleoclimatology. The associated NCEI study type is Tree Ring. The data include parameters of tree ring with a geographic location of Mongolia, Eastern Asia. The time period coverage is from 772 to -55 in calendar years before present (BP). See metadata information for parameter and study location details. Please cite this study when using the data