A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C

Integrating the promotion of physical activity within a smoking cessation programme: Findings from collaborative action research in UK Stop Smoking Services

Background: Within the framework of collaborative action research, the aim was to explore the feasibility of developing and embedding physical activity promotion as a smoking cessation aid within UK 6/7-week National Health Service (NHS) Stop Smoking Services. Methods: In Phase 1 three initial cycles of collaborative action research (observation, reflection, planning, implementation and re-evaluation), in an urban Stop Smoking Service, led to the development of an integrated intervention in which physical activity was promoted as a cessation aid, with the support of a theoretically based self-help guide, and self monitoring using pedometers. In Phase 2 advisors underwent training and offered the intervention, and changes in physical activity promoting behaviour and beliefs were monitored. Also, changes in clients’ stage of readiness to use physical activity as a cessation aid, physical activity beliefs and behaviour and physical activity levels were assessed, among those who attended the clinic at 4-week post-quit. Qualitative data were collected, in the form of clinic observation, informal interviews with advisors and field notes. Results: The integrated intervention emerged through cycles of collaboration as something quite different to previous practice. Based on field notes, there were many positive elements associated with the integrated intervention in Phase 2. Self-reported advisors’ physical activity promoting behaviour increased as a result of training and adapting to the intervention. There was a significant advancement in clients’ stage of readiness to use physical activity as a smoking cessation aid. Conclusions: Collaboration with advisors was key in ensuring that a feasible intervention was developed as an aid to smoking cessation. There is scope to further develop tailored support to increasing physical activity and smoking cessation, mediated through changes in perceptions about the benefits of, and confidence to do physical activity

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact

Simulating carbon capture by enhanced weathering with global croplands: an overview of key processes highlighting areas of future model development

Enhanced weathering (EW) aims to amplify a natural sink for CO2 by incorporating powdered silicate rock with high reactive surface area into agricultural soils. The goal is to achieve rapid dissolution of minerals and release of alkalinity with accompanying dissolution of CO2 into soils and drainage waters. EW could counteract phosphorus limitation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tropical soils, and soil acidification, a common agricultural problem studied with numerical process models over several decades. Here, we review the processes leading to soil acidification in croplands and how the soil weathering CO2 sink is represented in models. Mathematical models capturing the dominant processes and human interventions governing cropland soil chemistry and GHG emissions neglect weathering, while most weathering models neglect agricultural processes. We discuss current approaches to modelling EW and highlight several classes of model having the potential to simulate EW in croplands. Finally, we argue for further integration of process knowledge in mathematical models to capture feedbacks affecting both longer-term CO2 consumption and crop growth and yields

Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods

The central image of a gravitationally lensed quasar

A galaxy can act as a gravitational lens, producing multiple images of a background object. Theory predicts there should be an odd number of images but, paradoxically, almost all observed lenses have 2 or 4 images. The missing image should be faint and appear near the galaxy's center. These ``central images'' have long been sought as probes of galactic cores too distant to resolve with ordinary observations. There are five candidates, but in one case the third image is not necessarily a central image, and in the others, the central component might be a foreground source rather than a lensed image. Here we report the most secure identification of a central image, based on radio observations of PMN J1632-0033, one of the latter candidates. Lens models incorporating the central image show that the mass of the lens galaxy's central black hole is less than 2 x 10^8 M_sun, and the galaxy's surface density at the location of the central image is more than 20,000 M_sun per square parsec, in agreement with expectations based on observations of galaxies hundreds of times closer to the Earth.Comment: Nature, in press [7 pp, 2 figs]. Standard media embargo applies before publicatio

Exploring differential item functioning in the SF-36 by demographic, clinical, psychological and social factors in an osteoarthritis population

The SF-36 is a very commonly used generic measure of health outcome in osteoarthritis (OA). An important, but frequently overlooked, aspect of validating health outcome measures is to establish if items work in the same way across subgroup of a population. That is, if respondents have the same 'true' level of outcome, does the item give the same score in different subgroups or is it biased towards one subgroup or another. Differential item functioning (DIF) can identify items that may be biased for one group or another and has been applied to measuring patient reported outcomes. Items may show DIF for different conditions and between cultures, however the SF-36 has not been specifically examined in an osteoarthritis population nor in a UK population. Hence, the aim of the study was to apply the DIF method to the SF-36 for a UK OA population. The sample comprised a community sample of 763 people with OA who participated in the Somerset and Avon Survey of Health. The SF-36 was explored for DIF with respect to demographic, social, clinical and psychological factors. Well developed ordinal regression models were used to identify DIF items. Results: DIF items were found by age (6 items), employment status (6 items), social class (2 items), mood (2 items), hip v knee (2 items), social deprivation (1 item) and body mass index (1 item). Although the impact of the DIF items rarely had a significant effect on the conclusions of group comparisons, in most cases there was a significant change in effect size. Overall, the SF-36 performed well with only a small number of DIF items identified, a reassuring finding in view of the frequent use of the SF-36 in OA. Nevertheless, where DIF items were identified it would be advisable to analyse data taking account of DIF items, especially when age effects are the focus of interest

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors

Strong expression of TGF-beta in human host tissues around subcutaneous Dirofilaria repens

Dirofilaria repens and other Dirofilaria species are widely distributed parasitic nematodes of carnivores, which occasionally are transmitted to men, causing subcutaneous nodules. In humans, it usually occurs only as single male or female filariae without production of microfilariae. The non-productive living or dead Dirofilaria worms in subcutaneous biopsies from 15 human patients permitted us to study the role of the pleiotropic and immunoregulatory cytokine transforming growth factor beta (TGF-beta) independent from the influence of microfilariae. Antiserum against latent TGF-beta 1 was used for an immunohistological examination. In the infiltrates around female and male filariae, there occurred strongly TGF-beta-positive macrophages, mast cells, endothelial cells, fibrocytes, and giant cells adjacent to dead worms. In one nodule, secondary lymph follicles were observed with clearly TGF-beta-positive B cells in the mantle zone and weakly positive macrophages and B cells in the germinal centre. A network of CD35-positive follicular dendritic cells was observed in the germinal centre. All Dirofilaria contained Wolbachia endobacteria, which probably had attracted the numerous TGF-beta-negative neutrophils near to the worm. Wolbachia were phagocytosed by neutrophils adjacent to dead filariae. Macrophages and lymphocytes expressed the MHC class II molecule HLA-DR in small accumulations of immune cells in the outer zone of the infiltrate and the mantle zone and germinal centre of secondary lymph follicles. It is concluded that single non-productive Dirofilaria worms elicit a strong expression of TGF-beta. This result is in accordance with observations on Onchocerca volvulus from patients with the hyporeactive (generalised) form

REFERQUAL: A pilot study of a new service quality assessment instrument in the GP Exercise Referral scheme setting

Background The development of an instrument accurately assessing service quality in the GP Exercise Referral Scheme (ERS) industry could potentially inform scheme organisers of the factors that affect adherence rates leading to the implementation of strategic interventions aimed at reducing client drop-out. Methods A modified version of the SERVQUAL instrument was designed for use in the ERS setting and subsequently piloted amongst 27 ERS clients. Results Test re-test correlations were calculated via Pearson's 'r' or Spearman's 'rho', depending on whether the variables were Normally Distributed, to show a significant (mean r = 0.957, SD = 0.02, p < 0.05; mean rho = 0.934, SD = 0.03, p < 0.05) relationship between all items within the questionnaire. In addition, satisfactory internal consistency was demonstrated via Cronbach's 'α'. Furthermore, clients responded favourably towards the usability, wording and applicability of the instrument's items. Conclusion REFERQUAL is considered to represent promise as a suitable tool for future evaluation of service quality within the ERS community. Future research should further assess the validity and reliability of this instrument through the use of a confirmatory factor analysis to scrutinise the proposed dimensional structure