Contributions of a global network of tree diversity experiments to sustainable forest plantations

status: publishe

Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, "select and shrink for summary statistics" (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28-1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08-1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21-1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29-1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35-1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs

Drought and plant neighbourhood interactively determine herbivore consumption and performance

Both plant neighbourhood composition and drought have well-known independent effects on insect herbivore performance, but their interactive effects remain elusive. In this study we performed a laboratory experiment to investigate the independent and combined effects of plant neighbourhood composition and drought on the performance of Gypsy moth larvae (Lymantria dispar) feeding on silver birch (Betula pendula) leaves. For this, we collected leaf samples from birch trees growing in a field experiment where we manipulated both host-tree species diversity (three levels: birch monocultures, two-species mixtures associating birch with the pedunculate oak Quercus robur or maritime pine Pinus pinaster, and three-species mixture with pedunculate oak, the maritime pine and birch) and water availability (two levels: irrigated vs. non-irrigated). In most cases, plant neighbourhood composition and irrigation treatments independently and interactively affected herbivore performance traits, especially those related to growth and food (i.e. birch leaves) processing. By addressing the interactive effects of tree species diversity and drought on insect herbivory from the herbivore's point of view, our study builds toward a better understanding of the multiple ecological drivers of plant-insect interactions

Associational resistance to a pest insect fades with time

Tree diversity is one of the drivers of forest resistance to herbivores. Most of the current understanding of the diversity resistance relationship comes primarily from short-term studies. Knowing whether tree diversity effects on herbivores are maintained over time is important for perennial ecosystems like forests. We addressed the temporal dynamics of the diversity resistance relationship by conducting a 6-year survey of pine attacks by the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa (PPM) in a tree diversity experiment where we could disentangle tree composition from host density effects. During the first years after planting the trees, PPM attacks on maritime pine Pinus pinaster were reduced in the presence of birch Betula pendula, a fast-growing non-host tree (i.e. associational resistance). This effect was maintained but faded with time as the pines eventually grew taller than neighbouring birches. The number of repeated attacks on individual pine trees also decreased in mixed pine-birch stands. Pine density had a positive effect on stand colonisation by PPM and a negative effect on the proportion of trees that were attacked. Pines were less likely to be repeatedly attacked as pine density increased, with attacks being spread over a larger number of host trees. Collectively, these results unravel the independent contribution of tree species composition and host density to tree resistance to herbivores. Both processes had directional changes over time. These results indicate that the resistance of planted forests to herbivores can be improved by carefully choosing the composition of mixed forests and the timing of species planting