Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Global patterns and environmental drivers of forest functional composition

Aim: To determine the relationships between the functional trait composition of forest communities and environmental gradients across scales and biomes and the role of species relative abundances in these relationships. / Location: Global. / Time period: Recent. / Major taxa studied: Trees. / Methods: We integrated species abundance records from worldwide forest inventories and associated functional traits (wood density, specific leaf area and seed mass) to obtain a data set of 99,953 to 149,285 plots (depending on the trait) spanning all forested continents. We computed community-weighted and unweighted means of trait values for each plot and related them to three broad environmental gradients and their interactions (energy availability, precipitation and soil properties) at two scales (global and biomes). / Results: Our models explained up to 60% of the variance in trait distribution. At global scale, the energy gradient had the strongest influence on traits. However, within-biome models revealed different relationships among biomes. Notably, the functional composition of tropical forests was more influenced by precipitation and soil properties than energy availability, whereas temperate forests showed the opposite pattern. Depending on the trait studied, response to gradients was more variable and proportionally weaker in boreal forests. Community unweighted means were better predicted than weighted means for almost all models. / Main conclusions: Worldwide, trees require a large amount of energy (following latitude) to produce dense wood and seeds, while leaves with large surface to weight ratios are concentrated in temperate forests. However, patterns of functional composition within-biome differ from global patterns due to biome specificities such as the presence of conifers or unique combinations of climatic and soil properties. We recommend assessing the sensitivity of tree functional traits to environmental changes in their geographic context. Furthermore, at a given site, the distribution of tree functional traits appears to be driven more by species presence than species abundance

Biome changes and their inferred climatic drivers in northern and eastern continental Asia at selected times since 40 cal ka bp

Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the “arctic greening”) will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

This is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. Data availability: Data used in this study can be found in cited references for the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database6 (non-native status), the KEW Plants of the World database5 (native ranges) and the Global Environmental Composite63,77 (environmental data layers). Plant trait data were extracted from Maynard et al.78. Data from the Global Forest Biodiversity Initiative (GFBI) database57 are not available due to data privacy and sharing restrictions, but can be obtained upon request via Science-I (https://science-i.org/) or GFBI (gfbinitiative.org) and an approval from data contributors.Code availability All code used to complete analyses for the manuscript is available at the following link: https://github.com/thomaslauber/Global-Tree-Invasion. Data analyses were conducted and were visualizations generated in R (v. 4.2.2), Python (v. 3.9.7), Google Earth Engine (earthengine-api 0.1.306), QGIS-LTR (v. 3.16.7) and the ETH Zurich Euler cluster.Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.Swiss National Science FoundationSwiss National Science FoundationBernina FoundationDOB Ecolog

Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling

Abstract Changes in species’ distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species’ range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology

Climate-growth relationships and pointer year analysis of a Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) chronology from the Mongolian mountain forest steppe compared to white birch (Betula platyphylla Sukaczev)

Abstract Background Forest area, stand quality and growth of Siberian larch in Mongolia have decreased significantly over recent decades. This forest decline is frequently attributed to factors such as unregulated logging, increased ecological disturbances (primarily fire) and climate change. In this study, we analyzed climate-growth response and pointer years for Siberian larch observed in the Altansumber forest research area in the Mongolian mountain forest steppe zone. We compare our results with previously published results of white birch from the same area. Methods We built a reference chronology from wood core samples taken from 30 trees in three neighboring larch stands. Climate-growth relationships were analyzed monthly and seasonally over the period 1962–2009 using climate data from the Eroo weather station. Pointer year analysis covered the same time frame. Results Our analysis of the larch chronology showed that precipitation during autumn of the previous year and directly before the growing season of the current year was the most decisive factor determining tree-ring growth. Regional pointer year analysis further indicated that a humid summer and autumn followed by a warm spring support current-year tree-ring growth in these larch stands. Our findings were comparable to a white birch study in the same area. The larch trees, however, showed stronger growth performance and were more tolerant of higher temperatures, notably in spring during peak fire season. Conclusions Water availability is the decisive factor for larch growth in the mountain forest steppe zone. The chronologies showed no climatic indication of insect infestations. Differences in climate-growth relationships of birch and larch trees during peak fire season may to some degree be explained by their respective means of protecting themselves against low-intensity surface fires (e.g. thick bark of larch). These fire events occur regularly in the region and are influenced by climatic factors. Our analysis and comparison of climate tree-growth relationships may be valuable for developing climate- and disturbance-resilient forestry practices in Mongolian mountain forest ecosystems