Autonomous decision-making against induced seismicity in deep fluid injections

The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, conference (International Symposium on Energy Geotechnics, 26-28 September 2018, Lausanne, Switzerland

Violent aggression predicted by multiple pre-adult environmental hits

Early exposure to negative environmental impact shapes individual behavior and potentially contributes to any mental disease. We reported previously that accumulated environmental risk markedly decreases age at schizophrenia onset. Follow-up of matched extreme group individuals (≤1 vs. ≥3 risks) unexpectedly revealed that high-risk subjects had >5 times greater probability of forensic hospitalization. In line with longstanding sociological theories, we hypothesized that risk accumulation before adulthood induces violent aggression and criminal conduct, independent of mental illness. We determined in 6 independent cohorts (4 schizophrenia and 2 general population samples) pre-adult risk exposure, comprising urbanicity, migration, physical and sexual abuse as primary, and cannabis or alcohol as secondary hits. All single hits by themselves were marginally associated with higher violent aggression. Most strikingly, however, their accumulation strongly predicted violent aggression (odds ratio 10.5). An epigenome-wide association scan to detect differential methylation of blood-derived DNA of selected extreme group individuals yielded overall negative results. Conversely, determination in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of histone-deacetylase1 mRNA as 'umbrella mediator' of epigenetic processes revealed an increase in the high-risk group, suggesting lasting epigenetic alterations. Together, we provide sound evidence of a disease-independent unfortunate relationship between well-defined pre-adult environmental hits and violent aggression, calling for more efficient prevention

Mindful Aging: The Effects of Regular Brief Mindfulness Practice on Electrophysiological Markers of Cognitive and Affective Processing in Older Adults

There is growing interest in the potential benefits of mindfulness meditation practices in terms of counteracting some of the cognitive effects associated with aging. Pursuing this question, the aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of mindfulness training on executive control and emotion regulation in older adults, by means of studying behavioral and electrophysiological changes. Participants, 55 to 75 years of age, were randomly allocated to an 8-week mindful breath awareness training group or an active control group engaging in brain training exercises. Before and after the training period, participants completed an emotional-counting Stroop task, designed to measure attentional control and emotion regulation processes. Concurrently, their brain activity was measured by means of 64-channel electroencephalography. The results show that engaging in just over 10 min of mindfulness practice five times per week resulted in significant improvements in behavioral (response latency) and electrophysiological (N2 event-related potential) measures related to general task performance. Analyses of the underlying cortical sources (Variable Resolution Electromagnetic Tomography, VARETA) indicate that this N2-related effect is primarily associated with changes in the right angular gyrus and other areas of the dorsal attention network. However, the study did not find the expected specific improvements in executive control and emotion regulation, which may be due to the training instructions or the relative brevity of the intervention. Overall, the results indicate that engaging in mindfulness meditation training improves the maintenance of goal-directed visuospatial attention and may be a useful strategy for counteracting cognitive decline associated with aging

Review of the projected impacts of climate change on coastal fishes in southern Africa

The coastal zone represents one of the most economically and ecologically important ecosystems on the planet, none more so than in southern Africa. This manuscript examines the potential impacts of climate change on the coastal fishes in southern Africa and provides some of the first information for the Southern Hemisphere, outside of Australasia. It begins by describing the coastal zone in terms of its physical characteristics, climate, fish biodiversity and fisheries. The region is divided into seven biogeographical zones based on previous descriptions and interpretations by the authors. A global review of the impacts of climate change on coastal zones is then applied to make qualitative predictions on the likely impacts of climate change on migratory, resident, estuarine-dependent and catadromous fishes in each of these biogeographical zones. In many respects the southern African region represents a microcosm of climate change variability and of coastal habitats. Based on the broad range of climate change impacts and life history styles of coastal fishes, the predicted impacts on fishes will be diverse. If anything, this review reveals our lack of fundamental knowledge in this field, in particular in southern Africa. Several research priorities, including the need for process-based fundamental research programs are highlighted

The magnitude distribution of dynamically triggered earthquakes

©2014. The Authors. Large dynamic strains carried by seismic waves are known to trigger seismicity far from their source region. It is unknown, however, whether surface waves trigger only small earthquakes, or whether they can also trigger large earthquakes. To partially address this question, we evaluate whether current data can distinguish between the magnitude distribution of triggered and untriggered small earthquakes. We use a mixing model approach in which total seismicity is decomposed into two classes: "triggered" events initiated or advanced by far-field dynamic strains and "untriggered" spontaneous events consisting of everything else. The b-value of a mixed data set, bMIX, is decomposed into a weighted sum of b-values of its constituent components, bT and bU. We utilize the previously observed relationship between triggering rate and dynamic strain amplitude to identify the fraction of triggered events in populations of earthquakes and then invert for bT. For Californian seismicity, data are consistent with a single-parameter Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis governing the magnitudes of both triggered and untriggered earthquakes

The magnitude distribution of dynamically triggered earthquakes

©2014. The Authors. Large dynamic strains carried by seismic waves are known to trigger seismicity far from their source region. It is unknown, however, whether surface waves trigger only small earthquakes, or whether they can also trigger large earthquakes. To partially address this question, we evaluate whether current data can distinguish between the magnitude distribution of triggered and untriggered small earthquakes. We use a mixing model approach in which total seismicity is decomposed into two classes: "triggered" events initiated or advanced by far-field dynamic strains and "untriggered" spontaneous events consisting of everything else. The b-value of a mixed data set, bMIX, is decomposed into a weighted sum of b-values of its constituent components, bT and bU. We utilize the previously observed relationship between triggering rate and dynamic strain amplitude to identify the fraction of triggered events in populations of earthquakes and then invert for bT. For Californian seismicity, data are consistent with a single-parameter Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis governing the magnitudes of both triggered and untriggered earthquakes