Comparison of surrogate-based uncertainty quantification methods for computationally expensive simulators

This version: arXiv:1511.00926v4 [math.ST] Available from ArXiv.org via the link in this record.Polynomial chaos and Gaussian process emulation are methods for surrogate-based uncertainty quantification, and have been developed independently in their respective communities over the last 25 years. Despite tackling similar problems in the field, to our knowledge there has yet to be a critical comparison of the two approaches in the literature. We begin by providing a detailed description of polynomial chaos and Gaussian process approaches for building a surrogate model of a black-box function. The accuracy of each surrogate method is then tested and compared for two simulators used in industry: a land-surface model (adJULES) and a launch vehicle controller (VEGACONTROL). We analyse surrogates built on experimental designs of various size and type to investigate their performance in a range of modelling scenarios. Specifically, polynomial chaos and Gaussian process surrogates are built on Sobol sequence and tensor grid designs. Their accuracy is measured by their ability to estimate the mean, standard deviation, exceedance probabilities and probability density function of the simulator output, as well as a root mean square error metric, based on an independent validation design. We find that one method does not unanimously outperform the other, but advantages can be gained in some cases, such that the preferred method depends on the modelling goals of the practitioner. Our conclusions are likely to depend somewhat on the modelling choices for the surrogates as well as the design strategy. We hope that this work will spark future comparisons of the two methods in their more advanced formulations and for different sampling strategies

Plasma levels of apelin are reduced in patients with liver fibrosis and cirrhosis but are not correlated with circulating levels of bone morphogenetic protein 9 and 10

Background: The peptide apelin is expressed in human healthy livers and is implicated in the development of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis. Mutations in the bone morphogenetic protein receptor type II (BMPR-II) result in reduced plasma levels of apelin in patients with heritable pulmonary arterial hypertension. Ligands for BMPR-II include bone morphogenetic protein 9 (BMP9), highly expressed in liver, and BMP10, expressed in heart and to a lesser extent liver. However, it is not known whether reductions in BMP9 and/or BMP10, with associated reduction in BMPR-II signalling, correlate with altered levels of apelin in patients with liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. Methods: Plasma from patients with liver fibrosis (n = 14), cirrhosis (n = 56), and healthy controls (n = 25) was solid-phase extracted using a method optimised for recovery of apelin, which was measured by ELISA. Results: Plasma apelin was significantly reduced in liver fibrosis (8.3 ± 1.2 pg/ml) and cirrhosis (6.5 ± 0.6 pg/ml) patients compared with controls (15.4 ± 2.0 pg/ml). There was no obvious relationship between apelin and BMP 9 or BMP10 previously measured in these patients. Within the cirrhotic group, there was no significant correlation between apelin levels and disease severity scores, age, sex, or treatment with β-blockers. Conclusions: Apelin was significantly reduced in plasma of patients with both early (fibrosis) and late-stage (cirrhosis) liver disease. Fibrosis is more easily reversible and may represent a potential target for new therapeutic interventions. However, it remains unclear whether apelin signalling is detrimental in liver disease or is beneficial and therefore, whether an apelin antagonist or agonist have clinical use

Grifonin-1: A Small HIV-1 Entry Inhibitor Derived from the Algal Lectin, Griffithsin

Background: Griffithsin, a 121-residue protein isolated from a red algal Griffithsia sp., binds high mannose N-linked glycans of virus surface glycoproteins with extremely high affinity, a property that allows it to prevent the entry of primary isolates and laboratory strains of T- and M-tropic HIV-1. We used the sequence of a portion of griffithsin's sequence as a design template to create smaller peptides with antiviral and carbohydrate-binding properties. Methodology/Results: The new peptides derived from a trio of homologous β-sheet repeats that comprise the motifs responsible for its biological activity. Our most active antiviral peptide, grifonin-1 (GRFN-1), had an EC50 of 190.8±11.0 nM in in vitro TZM-bl assays and an EC50 of 546.6±66.1 nM in p24gag antigen release assays. GRFN-1 showed considerable structural plasticity, assuming different conformations in solvents that differed in polarity and hydrophobicity. Higher concentrations of GRFN-1 formed oligomers, based on intermolecular β-sheet interactions. Like its parent protein, GRFN-1 bound viral glycoproteins gp41 and gp120 via the N-linked glycans on their surface. Conclusion: Its substantial antiviral activity and low toxicity in vitro suggest that GRFN-1 and/or its derivatives may have therapeutic potential as topical and/or systemic agents directed against HIV-1

Deliberating stratospheric aerosols for climate geoengineering and the SPICE project

Increasing concerns about the narrowing window for averting dangerous climate change have prompted calls for research into geoengineering, alongside dialogue with the public regarding this as a possible response. We report results of the first public engagement study to explore the ethics and acceptability of stratospheric aerosol technology and a proposed field trial (the Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) ‘pipe and balloon’ test bed) of components for an aerosol deployment mechanism. Although almost all of our participants were willing to allow the field trial to proceed, very few were comfortable with using stratospheric aerosols. This Perspective also discusses how these findings were used in a responsible innovation process for the SPICE project initiated by the UK’s research councils

Animal movements in the Kenya Rift and evidence for the earliest ambush hunting by hominins

Animal movements in the Kenya Rift Valley today are influenced by a combination of topography and trace nutrient distribution. These patterns would have been the same in the past when hominins inhabited the area. We use this approach to create a landscape reconstruction of Olorgesailie, a key site in the East African Rift with abundant evidence of large-mammal butchery between ~1.2 and ~0.5 Ma BP. The site location in relation to limited animal routes through the area show that hominins were aware of animal movements and used the location for ambush hunting during the Lower to Middle Pleistocene. These features explain the importance of Olorgesailie as a preferred location of repeated hominin activity through multiple changes in climate and local environmental conditions, and provide insights into the cognitive and hunting abilities of Homo erectus while indicating that their activities at the site were aimed at hunting, rather than scavenging

The structure-function relationship of oncogenic LMTK3

Elucidating signaling driven by lemur tyrosine kinase 3 (LMTK3) could help drug development. Here, we solve the crystal structure of LMTK3 kinase domain to 2.1Å resolution, determine its consensus motif and phosphoproteome, unveiling in vitro and in vivo LMTK3 substrates. Via high-throughput homogeneous time-resolved fluorescence screen coupled with biochemical, cellular, and biophysical assays, we identify a potent LMTK3 small-molecule inhibitor (C28). Functional and mechanistic studies reveal LMTK3 is a heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) client protein, requiring HSP90 for folding and stability, while C28 promotes proteasome-mediated degradation of LMTK3. Pharmacologic inhibition of LMTK3 decreases proliferation of cancer cell lines in the NCI-60 panel, with a concomitant increase in apoptosis in breast cancer cells, recapitulating effects of LMTK3 gene silencing. Furthermore, LMTK3 inhibition reduces growth of xenograft and transgenic breast cancer mouse models without displaying systemic toxicity at effective doses. Our data reinforce LMTK3 as a druggable target for cancer therap

Insulin-like growth factor 2 mRNA binding protein 3 (IGF2BP3) overexpression in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma correlates with poor survival

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a lethal disease with a 5-year survival rate of 4% and typically presents in an advanced stage. In this setting, prognostic markers identifying the more agrressive tumors could aid in managment decisions. Insulin-like growth factor 2 mRNA binding protein 3 (IGF2BP3, also known as IMP3 or KOC) is an oncofetal RNA-binding protein that regulates targets such as insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-2) and ACTB (beta-actin).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated the expression of IGF2BP3 by immunohistochemistry using a tissue microarray of 127 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with tumor grade 1, 2 and 3 according to WHO criteria, and the prognostic value of IGF2BP3 expression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>IGF2BP3 was found to be selectively overexpressed in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tissues but not in benign pancreatic tissues. Nine (38%) patient samples of tumor grade 1 (n = 24) and 27 (44%) of tumor grade 2 (n = 61) showed expression of IGF2BP3. The highest rate of expression was seen in poorly differentiated specimen (grade 3, n = 42) with 26 (62%) positive samples. Overall survival was found to be significantly shorter in patients with IGF2BP3 expressing tumors (P = 0.024; RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.8).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data suggest that IGF2BP3 overexpression identifies a subset of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with an extremely poor outcome and supports the rationale for developing therapies to target the IGF pathway in this cancer.</p

Physical activity, obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in 9- to 10-year-old UK children of white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean origin: the Child Heart And health Study in England (CHASE)

Physical inactivity is implicated in unfavourable patterns of obesity and cardiometabolic risk in childhood. However, few studies have quantified these associations using objective physical activity measurements in children from different ethnic groups. We examined these associations in UK children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. This was a cross-sectional study of 2,049 primary school children in three UK cities, who had standardised anthropometric measurements, provided fasting blood samples and wore activity monitors for up to 7 days. Data were analysed using multilevel linear regression and allowing for measurement error. Overall physical activity levels showed strong inverse graded associations with adiposity markers (particularly sum of skinfold thicknesses), fasting insulin, HOMA insulin resistance, triacylglycerol and C-reactive protein; for an increase of 100 counts of physical activity per min of registered time, levels of these factors were 12.2% (95% CI 10.2-14.1%), 10.2% (95% CI 7.5-12.8%), 10.2% (95% CI 7.5-12.8%), 5.8% (95% CI 4.0-7.5%) and 19.2% (95% CI 13.9-24.2%) lower, respectively. Similar increments in physical activity levels were associated with lower diastolic blood pressure (1.0 mmHg, 95% CI 0.6-1.5 mmHg) and LDL-cholesterol (0.04 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.01-0.07 mmol/l), and higher HDL-cholesterol (0.02 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.01-0.04 mmol/l). Moreover, associations were broadly similar in strength in all ethnic groups. All associations between physical activity and cardiometabolic risk factors were reduced (albeit variably) after adjustment for adiposity. Objectively measured physical activity correlates at least as well with obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in South Asian and African-Caribbean children as in white European children, suggesting that efforts to increase activity levels in such groups would have equally beneficial effect

Discovery of nucleotide polymorphisms in the Musa gene pool by Ecotilling

Musa (banana and plantain) is an important genus for the global export market and in local markets where it provides staple food for approximately 400 million people. Hybridization and polyploidization of several (sub)species, combined with vegetative propagation and human selection have produced a complex genetic history. We describe the application of the Ecotilling method for the discovery and characterization of nucleotide polymorphisms in diploid and polyploid accessions of Musa. We discovered over 800 novel alleles in 80 accessions. Sequencing and band evaluation shows Ecotilling to be a robust and accurate platform for the discovery of polymorphisms in homologous and homeologous gene targets. In the process of validating the method, we identified two single nucleotide polymorphisms that may be deleterious for the function of a gene putatively important for phototropism. Evaluation of heterozygous polymorphism and haplotype blocks revealed a high level of nucleotide diversity in Musa accessions. We further applied a strategy for the simultaneous discovery of heterozygous and homozygous polymorphisms in diploid accessions to rapidly evaluate nucleotide diversity in accessions of the same genome type. This strategy can be used to develop hypotheses for inheritance patterns of nucleotide polymorphisms within and between genome types. We conclude that Ecotilling is suitable for diversity studies in Musa, that it can be considered for functional genomics studies and as tool in selecting germplasm for traditional and mutation breeding approaches