Prediction of recovery from multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in pediatric sepsis patients

MOTIVATION: Sepsis is a leading cause of death and disability in children globally, accounting for ∼3 million childhood deaths per year. In pediatric sepsis patients, the multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) is considered a significant risk factor for adverse clinical outcomes characterized by high mortality and morbidity in the pediatric intensive care unit. The recent rapidly growing availability of electronic health records (EHRs) has allowed researchers to vastly develop data-driven approaches like machine learning in healthcare and achieved great successes. However, effective machine learning models which could make the accurate early prediction of the recovery in pediatric sepsis patients from MODS to a mild state and thus assist the clinicians in the decision-making process is still lacking. RESULTS: This study develops a machine learning-based approach to predict the recovery from MODS to zero or single organ dysfunction by 1 week in advance in the Swiss Pediatric Sepsis Study cohort of children with blood-culture confirmed bacteremia. Our model achieves internal validation performance on the SPSS cohort with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 79.1% and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 73.6%, and it was also externally validated on another pediatric sepsis patients cohort collected in the USA, yielding an AUROC of 76.4% and AUPRC of 72.4%. These results indicate that our model has the potential to be included into the EHRs system and contribute to patient assessment and triage in pediatric sepsis patient care. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Code available at https://github.com/BorgwardtLab/MODS-recovery. The data underlying this article is not publicly available for the privacy of individuals that participated in the study. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online

Perspective of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign on the Management of Pediatric Sepsis in the Era of Coronavirus Disease 2019

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a novel cause of organ dysfunction in children, presenting as either coronavirus disease 2019 with sepsis and/or respiratory failure or a hyperinflammatory shock syndrome. Clinicians must now consider these diagnoses when evaluating children for septic shock and sepsis-associated organ dysfunction. The Surviving Sepsis Campaign International Guidelines for the Management of Septic Shock and Sepsis-associated Organ Dysfunction in Children provide an appropriate framework for the early recognition and initial resuscitation of children with sepsis or septic shock caused by all pathogens, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. However, the potential benefits of select adjunctive therapies may differ from non-coronavirus disease 2019 sepsis

Severe sepsis: variation in resource and therapeutic modality use among academic centers

BACKGROUND: Treatment of severe sepsis is expensive, often encompassing a number of discretionary modalities. The objective of the present study was to assess intercenter variation in resource and therapeutic modality use in patients with severe sepsis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1028 adult admissions with severe sepsis from a stratified random sample of patients admitted to eight academic tertiary care centers. The main outcome measures were length of stay (LOS; total LOS and LOS after onset of severe sepsis) and total hospital charges. RESULTS: The adjusted mean total hospital charges varied from $69 429 to US$237 898 across centers, whereas the adjusted LOS after onset varied from 15.9 days to 24.2 days per admission. Treatments used frequently after the first onset of sepsis among patients with severe sepsis were pulmonary artery catheters (19.4%), ventilator support (21.8%), pressor support (45.8%) and albumin infusion (14.4%). Pulmonary artery catheter use, ventilator support and albumin infusion had moderate variation profiles, varying 3.2-fold to 4.9-fold, whereas the rate of pressor support varied only 1.92-fold across centers. Even after adjusting for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, discharge diagnosis-relative group weight, organ dysfunction and service at onset, the odds for using these therapeutic modalities still varied significantly across centers. Failure to start antibiotics within 24 hours was strongly correlated with a higher probability of 28-day mortality (r(2 )= 0.72). CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate moderate but significant variation in resource use and use of technologies in treatment of severe sepsis among academic centers. Delay in antibiotic therapy was associated with worse outcome at the center level

High-Frequency Oscillatory Ventilation Use and Severe Pediatric ARDS in the Pediatric Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipient

INTRODUCTION: The effectiveness of high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV) in the pediatric hematopoietic cell transplant patient has not been established. We sought to identify current practice patterns of HFOV, investigate parameters during HFOV and their association with mortality, and compare the use of HFOV to conventional mechanical ventilation in severe pediatric ARDS. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of a multi-center database of pediatric and young adult allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant subjects requiring invasive mechanical ventilation for critical illness from 2009 through 2014. Twelve United States pediatric centers contributed data. Continuous variables were compared using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test or a Kruskal-Wallis analysis. For categorical variables, univariate analysis with logistic regression was performed. RESULTS: The database contains 222 patients, of which 85 subjects were managed with HFOV. Of this HFOV cohort, the overall pediatric ICU survival was 23.5% (n = 20). HFOV survivors were transitioned to HFOV at a lower oxygenation index than nonsurvivors (25.6, interquartile range 21.1-36.8, vs 37.2, interquartile range 26.5-52.2, P = .046). Survivors were transitioned to HFOV earlier in the course of mechanical ventilation, (day 0 vs day 2, P = .002). No subject survived who was transitioned to HFOV after 1 week of invasive mechanical ventilation. We compared subjects with severe pediatric ARDS treated only with conventional mechanical ventilation versus early HFOV (within 2 d of invasive mechanical ventilation) versus late HFOV. There was a trend toward difference in survival (conventional mechanical ventilation 24%, early HFOV 30%, and late HFOV 9%, P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: In this large database of pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant subjects who had acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation for critical illness with severe pediatric ARDS, early use of HFOV was associated with improved survival compared to late implementation of HFOV, and the subjects had outcomes similar to those treated only with conventional mechanical ventilation

Survival following Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection; a prospective multinational cohort study assessing the impact of place of care

Background Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (SAB) is a common, life-threatening infection with a high mortality. Survival can be improved by implementing quality of care bundles in hospitals. We previously observed marked differences in mortality between hospitals and now assessed whether mortality could serve as a valid and easy to implement quality of care outcome measure. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study between January 2013 and April 2015 on consecutive, adult patients with SAB from 11 tertiary care centers in Germany, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. Factors associated with mortality at 90 days were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression and flexible parametric models. Results 1,851 patients with a median age of 66 years (64% male) were analyzed. Crude 90-day mortality differed significantly between hospitals (range 23% to 39%). Significant variation between centers was observed for methicillin-resistant S. aureus, community-acquisition, infective foci, as well as measures of comorbidities, and severity of disease. In multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with mortality at 90 days were age, nosocomial acquisition, unknown infective focus, pneumonia, Charlson comorbidity index, SOFA score, and study center. The risk of death varied over time differently for each infective focus. Crude mortality differed markedly from adjusted mortality. Discussion We observed significant differences in adjusted mortality between hospitals, suggesting differences in quality of care. However, mortality is strongly influenced by patient mix and thus, crude mortality is not a suitable quality indicator

Criteria for Pediatric Sepsis-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis by the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce

OBJECTIVE: To determine the associations of demographic, clinical, laboratory, organ dysfunction, and illness severity variable values with: 1) sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock in children with infection and 2) multiple organ dysfunction or death in children with sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from January 1, 2004, and November 16, 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Case-control studies, cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials in children greater than or equal to 37-week-old postconception to 18 years with suspected or confirmed infection, which included the terms "sepsis," "septicemia," or "septic shock" in the title or abstract. DATA EXTRACTION: Study characteristics, patient demographics, clinical signs or interventions, laboratory values, organ dysfunction measures, and illness severity scores were extracted from eligible articles. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed. DATA SYNTHESIS: One hundred and six studies met eligibility criteria of which 81 were included in the meta-analysis. Sixteen studies (9,629 patients) provided data for the sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock outcome and 71 studies (154,674 patients) for the mortality outcome. In children with infection, decreased level of consciousness and higher Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores were associated with sepsis/severe sepsis. In children with sepsis/severe sepsis/septic shock, chronic conditions, oncologic diagnosis, use of vasoactive/inotropic agents, mechanical ventilation, serum lactate, platelet count, fibrinogen, procalcitonin, multi-organ dysfunction syndrome, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score, Pediatric Index of Mortality-3, and Pediatric Risk of Mortality score each demonstrated significant and consistent associations with mortality. Pooled mortality rates varied among high-, upper middle-, and lower middle-income countries for patients with sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Strong associations of several markers of organ dysfunction with the outcomes of interest among infected and septic children support their inclusion in the data validation phase of the Pediatric Sepsis Definition Taskforce

Getting the invite list right : a discussion of sepsis severity scoring systems in severe complicated intra-abdominal sepsis and randomized trial inclusion criteria

Background: Severe complicated intra-abdominal sepsis (SCIAS) is a worldwide challenge with increasing incidence. Open abdomen management with enhanced clearance of fluid and biomediators from the peritoneum is a potential therapy requiring prospective evaluation. Given the complexity of powering multi-center trials, it is essential to recruit an inception cohort sick enough to benefit from the intervention; otherwise, no effect of a potentially beneficial therapy may be apparent An evaluation of abilities of recognized predictive systems to recognize SCIAS patients was conducted using an existing intra-abdominal sepsis (IAS) database. Methods: All consecutive adult patients with a diffuse secondary peritonitis between 2012 and 2013 were collected from a quaternary care hospital in Finland, excluding appendicitis/cholecystitis. From this retrospectively collected database, a target population (93) of those with either ICU admission or mortality were selected. The performance metrics of the Third Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock based on both SOFA and quick SOFA, the World Society of Emergency Surgery Sepsis Severity Score (WSESSSS), the APACHE II score, Manheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), and the Calgary Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ dysfunction (CPIRO) score were all tested for their discriminant ability to identify this subgroup with SCIAS and to predict mortality. Results: Predictive systems with an area under-the-receiving-operating characteristic (AUQ curve >= 0.8 included SOFA, Sepsis-3 definitions, APACHE II, WSESSSS, and CPIRO scores with the overall best for CPIRO. The highest identification rates were SOFA score >= 2 (78.4%), followed by the WSESSSS score >= 8 (73.1%), SOFA >= 3 (752%), and APACHE II >= 14 (68.8%) identification. Combining the Sepsis-3 septic-shock definition and WSESSS >= 8 increased detection to 80%. Including CPIRO score >= 3 increased this to 82.8% (Sensitivity-SN; 83% Specificity-SP; 74%. Comparatively, SOFA >= 4 and WSESSSS >= 8 with or without septic-shock had 83.9% detection (SN; 84%, SP; 75%, 25% mortality). Conclusions: No one scoring system behaves perfectly, and all are largely dominated by organ dysfunction. Utilizing combinations of SOFA, CPIRO, and WSESSSS scores in addition to the Sepsis-3 septic shock definition appears to offer the widest "inclusion-criteria" to recognize patients with a high chance of mortality and ICU admission.Peer reviewe

Enteral versus parenteral early nutrition in ventilated adults with shock: a randomised, controlled, multicentre, open-label, parallel-group study (NUTRIREA-2)

BACKGROUND: Whether the route of early feeding affects outcomes of patients with severe critical illnesses is controversial. We hypothesised that outcomes were better with early first-line enteral nutrition than with early first-line parenteral nutrition. METHODS: In this randomised, controlled, multicentre, open-label, parallel-group study (NUTRIREA-2 trial) done at 44 French intensive-care units (ICUs), adults (18 years or older) receiving invasive mechanical ventilation and vasopressor support for shock were randomly assigned (1:1) to either parenteral nutrition or enteral nutrition, both targeting normocaloric goals (20-25 kcal/kg per day), within 24 h after intubation. Randomisation was stratified by centre using permutation blocks of variable sizes. Given that route of nutrition cannot be masked, blinding of the physicians and nurses was not feasible. Patients receiving parenteral nutrition could be switched to enteral nutrition after at least 72 h in the event of shock resolution (no vasopressor support for 24 consecutive hours and arterial lactate &lt;2 mmol/L). The primary endpoint was mortality on day 28 after randomisation in the intention-to-treat-population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01802099. FINDINGS: After the second interim analysis, the independent Data Safety and Monitoring Board deemed that completing patient enrolment was unlikely to significantly change the results of the trial and recommended stopping patient recruitment. Between March 22, 2013, and June 30, 2015, 2410 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned; 1202 to the enteral group and 1208 to the parenteral group. By day 28, 443 (37%) of 1202 patients in the enteral group and 422 (35%) of 1208 patients in the parenteral group had died (absolute difference estimate 2·0%; [95% CI -1·9 to 5·8]; p=0·33). Cumulative incidence of patients with ICU-acquired infections did not differ between the enteral group (173 [14%]) and the parenteral group (194 [16%]; hazard ratio [HR] 0·89 [95% CI 0·72-1·09]; p=0·25). Compared with the parenteral group, the enteral group had higher cumulative incidences of patients with vomiting (406 [34%] vs 246 [20%]; HR 1·89 [1·62-2·20]; p&lt;0·0001), diarrhoea (432 [36%] vs 393 [33%]; 1·20 [1·05-1·37]; p=0·009), bowel ischaemia (19 [2%] vs five [&lt;1%]; 3·84 [1·43-10·3]; p=0·007), and acute colonic pseudo-obstruction (11 [1%] vs three [&lt;1%]; 3·7 [1·03-13·2; p=0·04). INTERPRETATION: In critically ill adults with shock, early isocaloric enteral nutrition did not reduce mortality or the risk of secondary infections but was associated with a greater risk of digestive complications compared with early isocaloric parenteral nutrition. FUNDING: La Roche-sur-Yon Departmental Hospital and French Ministry of Health

Development and Validation of the Phoenix Criteria for Pediatric Sepsis and Septic Shock

IMPORTANCE: The Society of Critical Care Medicine Pediatric Sepsis Definition Task Force sought to develop and validate new clinical criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock using measures of organ dysfunction through a data-driven approach. OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate novel criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock across differently resourced settings. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter, international, retrospective cohort study in 10 health systems in the US, Colombia, Bangladesh, China, and Kenya, 3 of which were used as external validation sites. Data were collected from emergency and inpatient encounters for children (aged <18 years) from 2010 to 2019: 3 049 699 in the development (including derivation and internal validation) set and 581 317 in the external validation set. EXPOSURE: Stacked regression models to predict mortality in children with suspected infection were derived and validated using the best-performing organ dysfunction subscores from 8 existing scores. The final model was then translated into an integer-based score used to establish binary criteria for sepsis and septic shock. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome for all analyses was in-hospital mortality. Model- and integer-based score performance measures included the area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC; primary) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC; secondary). For binary criteria, primary performance measures were positive predictive value and sensitivity. RESULTS: Among the 172 984 children with suspected infection in the first 24 hours (development set; 1.2% mortality), a 4-organ-system model performed best. The integer version of that model, the Phoenix Sepsis Score, had AUPRCs of 0.23 to 0.38 (95% CI range, 0.20-0.39) and AUROCs of 0.71 to 0.92 (95% CI range, 0.70-0.92) to predict mortality in the validation sets. Using a Phoenix Sepsis Score of 2 points or higher in children with suspected infection as criteria for sepsis and sepsis plus 1 or more cardiovascular point as criteria for septic shock resulted in a higher positive predictive value and higher or similar sensitivity compared with the 2005 International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) criteria across differently resourced settings. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The novel Phoenix sepsis criteria, which were derived and validated using data from higher- and lower-resource settings, had improved performance for the diagnosis of pediatric sepsis and septic shock compared with the existing IPSCC criteria

Closed Or Open after Source Control Laparotomy for Severe Complicated Intra-Abdominal Sepsis (the COOL trial) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Abstract Background Severe complicated intra-abdominal sepsis (SCIAS) has an increasing incidence with mortality rates over 80% in some settings. Mortality typically results from disruption of the gastrointestinal tract, progressive and self-perpetuating bio-mediator generation, systemic inflammation, and multiple organ failure. Principles of treatment include early antibiotic administration and operative source control. A further therapeutic option may be open abdomen (OA) management with active negative peritoneal pressure therapy (ANPPT) to remove inflammatory ascites and ameliorate the systemic damage from SCIAS. Although there is now a biologic rationale for such an intervention as well as non-standardized and erratic clinical utilization, this remains a novel therapy with potential side effects and clinical equipoise. Methods The Closed Or Open after Laparotomy (COOL) study will constitute a prospective randomized controlled trial that will randomly allocate eligible surgical patients intra-operatively to either formal closure of the fascia or use of the OA with application of an ANPTT dressing. Patients will be eligible if they have free uncontained intra-peritoneal contamination and physiologic derangements exemplified by septic shock OR a Predisposition-Infection-Response-Organ Dysfunction Score ≥ 3 or a World-Society-of-Emergency-Surgery-Sepsis-Severity-Score ≥ 8. The primary outcome will be 90-day survival. Secondary outcomes will be logistical, physiologic, safety, bio-mediators, microbiological, quality of life, and health-care costs. Secondary outcomes will include days free of ICU, ventilation, renal replacement therapy, and hospital at 30 days from the index laparotomy. Physiologic secondary outcomes will include changes in intensive care unit illness severity scores after laparotomy. Bio-mediator outcomes for participating centers will involve measurement of interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10, procalcitonin, activated protein C (APC), high-mobility group box protein-1, complement factors, and mitochondrial DNA. Economic outcomes will comprise standard costing for utilization of health-care resources. Discussion Although facial closure after SCIAS is considered the current standard of care, many reports are suggesting that OA management may improve outcomes in these patients. This trial will be powered to demonstrate a mortality difference in this highly lethal and morbid condition to ensure critically ill patients are receiving the best care possible and not being harmed by inappropriate therapies based on opinion only. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03163095