Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data

A key component for landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is constituted by thresholds providing the conditions above which a landslide can be triggered. Traditionally, thresholds based on rainfall characteristics have been proposed, but recently, the hydrometeorological approach, combining rainfall with soil moisture or catchment storage information, is becoming widespread. Most of the hydrometeorological thresholds proposed in the literature use the soil moisture from a single layer (i.e., depth or depth range). On the other hand, multi-layered soil moisture information can be measured or can be available from reanalysis projects as well as from hydrological models. Approaches using this multi-layered information are lacking, perhaps because of the need to keep the thresholds simple and two-dimensional. In this paper, we propose principal component analysis (PCA) as an approach for deriving two-dimensional hydrometeorological thresholds that use multi-layered soil moisture information. To perform a more objective assessment we also propose a piecewise linear equation for the identification of the threshold's shape, which is more flexible than traditional choices (e.g., power law or bilinear). Comparison of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) (true skill statistic, TSS) of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information also provides a novel tool for identifying the significance of multi-layered information on landslide triggering in a given region. Results for Sicily island, considering the ERA5-Land reanalysis soil moisture data (available at four different depth layers), corroborate the advantages of the hydrometeorological approach gained in spite of the coarse spatial resolution and the limited accuracy of reanalysis data. Specifically, the TSS of traditional precipitation intensity–duration thresholds is equal to 0.5, while those of the proposed hydrometeorological thresholds is significantly higher (TSS=0.71). For the analyzed region, however, multi-layered information seems not to be relevant, as performances in terms of TSS are similar to those obtained with single-layer soil moisture at the upper depths, namely 0–7 and 7–28 cm, which can imply that in Sicily landslide phenomena are mainly influenced by soil moisture in most shallow soil layers.</p

Improving spatial landslide prediction with 3d slope stability analysis and genetic algorithm optimization: Application to the oltrepò pavese

In this study, we compare infinite slope and the three-dimensional stability analysis performed by SCOOPS 3D (software to analyze three-dimensional slope stability throughout a digital landscape). SCOOPS 3D is a model proposed by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), the potentialities of which have still not been investigated sufficiently. The comparison between infinite slope and 3D slope stability analysis is carried out using the same hydrological analysis, which is performed with TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability model)—another model proposed by USGS. The SCOOPS 3D model requires definition of a series of numerical parameters that can have a significant impact on its own performance, for a given set of physical properties. In the study, we calibrate these numerical parameters through a multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithms to maximize the model predictability performance in terms of statistics of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) confusion matrix. This comparison is carried out through an application on a real case study, a catchment in the Oltrepò Pavese (Italy), in which the areas of triggered landslides were accurately monitored during an extreme rainfall on 27–28 April 2009. Results show that the SCOOPS 3D model performs better than the 1D infinite slope stability analysis, as the ROC True Skill Statistic increases from 0.09 to 0.37. In comparison to other studies, we find the 1D model performs worse, likely for the availability of less detailed geological data. On the other side, for the 3D model we find even better results than the two other studies present to date in the scientific literature. This is to be attributed to the optimization process we proposed, which allows to have a greater gain of performance passing from the 1D to the 3D simulation, in comparison to the above-mentioned studies, where no optimization has been applied. Thus, our study contributes to improving the performances of landslide models, which still remain subject to many uncertainty factors

EFFECTS OF CITRUS ESSENTIAL OILS ON THE MICROBIOLOGICAL SAFETY OF PRIMO SALE CHEESE

In the last years, the consumers demanding foods with no chemical preservatives for food conservation, determined an interest by the food industries for the use of natural biopreservatives. Several essential oils from various plants and fruits have been characterized for their antibacterial activities in order to select new biopreservatives. The aim of this work was to evaluate the organoleptic effect of citrus essential oils to be applied in the processing of sheeps’ milk “Primo Sale” cheese and the inhibitory effect on the main bacterial pathogens of dairy interest. In order to better evaluate the antibacterial effect, the first approach was based on pasteurized milk, in view of the future application in raw milk cheese production. Three industrial citrus essential oils (EOs) extracted by cold pressing of the citrus peels were tested: Orange [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck] Lemon [Citrus limon (L.) Osbeck] and Tangerine [Citrus reticulata Blanco]; sheep bulk milk was pasteurized for 30 min at 60°C. Each EO was tested at two different concentrations 100 and 200 µl/l of milk. For each dose two cheese makings were made: one production was not added with pathogenic bacteria to evaluate the organoleptic characteristics, while the second production was added with 30 CFU/mL of Listeria monocytogenes 24B0 and Salmonella typhimurium 50431 and 103 CFU/mL of Escherichia coli C45/1245 and Staphylococcus aureus PSS52. All cheeses were obtained by coagulation with 0.3 mL/L of microbial rennet (Fromase® 220 TL, DSM Bright Science Brighter Living, Heerlen, UK) and acidification by means of the starter culture Lactococcus lactis CAG4 and CAG37 10 mL/L to reach a final concentration of 106 CFU/ml in milk. Four cheese makings without EOs were used as control trials and prepared as follows: only rennet; rennet plus pathogenic bacteria; rennet plus starters; and rennet plus pathogenic and starters. Cheese samples were homogenised with a stomacher (BagMixer® 400, Interscience, Saint Nom, France). Microbial suspensions were plated and incubated as follows: Lactic acid bacteria cocci on M17 agar, incubated anaerobically at 30°C for 48 h; L. monocytogenes on Listeria selective agar base incubated at 37°C for 48 h; Escherichia coli and S. typhimurium were both detected on Hektoen enteric agar incubated at 37°C for 24 h; St. aureus on Baird Parker and incubated at 37°C for 48 h. Although in vitro tests showed a certain inhibition against especially, the Gram positive bacteria, but also towards Salmonella spp. none of the two Gram negative pathogens was inhibited in cheeses. Optimal results were registered against L. monocytogenes which was inhibited of almost 3 Log cycles by all EOs at both concentrations tested. St. aureus was not inhibited by orange EO, while 1-2 Log cycles lower than control (only pathogens) were found in EO cheeses. The inhibitory effect could also be due to the competitions for nutrients due to the most rapid growth of Lc. lactis. However, the difference registered among orange and the other two citrus EO trials highlighted the in vivo antibacterial activity of lemon and mandarin EOs. Sensory tests are being prepared to evaluate the appreciation by judges

Palladium(II)-η3-Allyl Complexes Bearing N-Trifluoromethyl N-Heterocyclic Carbenes: A New Generation of Anticancer Agents that Restrain the Growth of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Tumoroids

The first palladium organometallic compounds bearing N-trifluoromethyl N-heterocyclic carbenes have been synthesized. These η3-allyl complexes are potent antiproliferative agents against different cancer lines (for the most part, IC50 values fall in the range 0.02–0.5 μm). By choosing 1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphaadamantane (PTA) as co-ligand, we can improve the selectivity toward tumor cells, whereas the introduction of 2-methyl substituents generally reduces the antitumor activity slightly. A series of biochemical assays, aimed at defining the cellular targets of these palladium complexes, has shown that mitochondria are damaged before DNA, thus revealing a behavior substantially different from that of cisplatin and its derivatives. We assume that the specific mechanism of action of these organometallic compounds involves nucleophilic attack on the η3-allyl fragment. The effectiveness of a representative complex, 4 c, was verified on ovarian cancer tumoroids derived from patients. The results are promising: unlike carboplatin, our compound turned out to be very active and showed a low toxicity toward normal liver organoids

The anticancer activity of an air-stable Pd(i)-NHC (NHC = N-heterocyclic carbene) dimer

A new dinuclear Pd(i) complex coordinating two bis(NHC) ligands revealed an unsuspected stability despite the unsaturation of the two metal centres. Even more surprisingly, the compound showed high and selective antiproliferative activity against different cancer cell lines and ovarian cancer tumoroids, and the mechanism of action was different from that of cisplatin

The anticancer activity of an air-stable Pd(i)-NHC (NHC = N-heterocyclic carbene) dimer

A new dinuclear Pd(i) complex coordinating two bis(NHC) ligands revealed an unsuspected stability despite the unsaturation of the two metal centres. Even more surprisingly, the compound showed high and selective antiproliferative activity against different cancer cell lines and ovarian cancer tumoroids, and the mechanism of action was different from that of cisplatin

Feeling Through the Body: Alexithymia and Eating Disorders

INTRODUCTION Alexithymia is characterized by difficulties identifying and communicating feelings, and problems differentiating between feelings and bodily sensations; its concrete cognitive style focused on the external environment is typical of psychosomatic patients. Patients with eating disorders (EDs) have high levels of alexithymia, particularly difficulties identifying and describing their feelings. OBJECTIVE The aims of our study are (1) to assess the alexythimia, emotional empathy, facial emotion identification skills and social inference abilities in a sample of ED patients; (2) to compare these variables between ED patients and healthy controls (HC); and (3) to correlate levels of alexithymia with the severity of the ED as measured by the Eating Disorder Inventory-3 (EDI-3) EDRC score in the ED group. METHODS ED (N=42) and HC (N=42) were tested with the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI-3), Facial Emotion Identification Test (FEIT), The Awareness of Social Inference Test (TASIT) and Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI). RESULTS Data collection is being completed and the results’ analysis is ongoing. We expect the ED sample to show greater alexythimia and a poorer performance at FEIT and TASIT than HCs. We expect to find a linear correlation between the TAS-20 and EDRC score. CONCLUSION A better understanding of the role of alexithymia in ED etiology and maintenance might allow the development of targeted treatment approaches to help patients improve their skills in identifying and expressing emotions

Predicting estrogen receptor binding of chemicals using a suite of in silico methods &#8211; Complementary approaches of (Q)SAR, molecular docking and molecular dynamics

With the aim of obtaining reliable estimates of Estrogen Receptor (ER) binding for diverse classes of compounds, a weight of evidence approach using estimates from a suite of in silico models was assessed. The predictivity of a simple Majority Consensus of (Q)SAR models was assessed using a test set of compounds with experimental Relative Binding Affinity (RBA) data. Molecular docking was also carried out and the binding energies of these compounds to the ER\u3b1 receptor were determined. For a few selected compounds, including a known full agonist and antagonist, the intrinsic activity was determined using low-mode molecular dynamics methods. Individual (Q)SAR model predictivity varied, as expected, with some models showing high sensitivity, others higher specificity. However, the Majority Consensus (Q)SAR prediction showed a high accuracy and reasonably balanced sensitivity and specificity. Molecular docking provided quantitative information on strength of binding to the ER\u3b1 receptor. For the 50 highest binding affinity compounds with positive RBA experimental values, just 5 of them were predicted to be non-binders by the Majority QSAR Consensus. Furthermore, agonist-specific assay experimental values for these 5 compounds were negative, which indicates that they may be ER antagonists. We also showed different scenarios of combining (Q)SAR results with Molecular docking classification of ER binding based on cut-off values of binding energies, providing a rational combined strategy to maximize terms of toxicological interest

A stochastic model for heart rate fluctuations

Normal human heart rate shows complex fluctuations in time, which is natural, since heart rate is controlled by a large number of different feedback control loops. These unpredictable fluctuations have been shown to display fractal dynamics, long-term correlations, and 1/f noise. These characterizations are statistical and they have been widely studied and used, but much less is known about the detailed time evolution (dynamics) of the heart rate control mechanism. Here we show that a simple one-dimensional Langevin-type stochastic difference equation can accurately model the heart rate fluctuations in a time scale from minutes to hours. The model consists of a deterministic nonlinear part and a stochastic part typical to Gaussian noise, and both parts can be directly determined from the measured heart rate data. Studies of 27 healthy subjects reveal that in most cases the deterministic part has a form typically seen in bistable systems: there are two stable fixed points and one unstable one.Comment: 8 pages in PDF, Revtex style. Added more dat

Contribution of Panton-Valentine Leukocidin in Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Pathogenesis

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) strains typically carry genes encoding Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL). We used wild-type parental and isogenic PVL-deletion (Δpvl) strains of USA300 (LAC and SF8300) and USA400 (MW2) to test whether PVL alters global gene regulatory networks and contributes to pathogenesis of bacteremia, a hallmark feature of invasive staphylococcal disease. Microarray and proteomic analyses revealed that PVL does not alter gene or protein expression, thereby demonstrating that any contribution of PVL to CA-MRSA pathogenesis is not mediated through interference of global gene regulatory networks. Inasmuch as a direct role for PVL in CA-MRSA pathogenesis remains to be determined, we developed a rabbit bacteremia model of CA-MRSA infection to evaluate the effects of PVL. Following experimental infection of rabbits, an animal species whose granulocytes are more sensitive to the effects of PVL compared with the mouse, we found a contribution of PVL to pathogenesis over the time course of bacteremia. At 24 and 48 hours post infection, PVL appears to play a modest, but measurable role in pathogenesis during the early stages of bacteremic seeding of the kidney, the target organ from which bacteria were not cleared. However, the early survival advantage of this USA300 strain conferred by PVL was lost by 72 hours post infection. These data are consistent with the clinical presentation of rapid-onset, fulminant infection that has been associated with PVL-positive CA-MRSA strains. Taken together, our data indicate a modest and transient positive effect of PVL in the acute phase of bacteremia, thereby providing evidence that PVL contributes to CA-MRSA pathogenesis