Integrated Management of Land-use Systems under Systemic Risks and Food-(bio)energy-water-environmental Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land-use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relations, and disruption of the network may catalyze systemic risks affecting food, energy, water, and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. This paper describes the conceptual development, expansion, and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a model that is used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analyzed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of often contradictory outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust decisions that leave the systems better off, independently of what scenario occurs. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimization model that is central for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. For example, the model is applied to the case of increased storage facilities, which can be viewed as catastrophe pools to buffer production shortfalls and fulfill regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relation with Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to present the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model

Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere's temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis

Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2 degrees C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle- income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest

Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector

Acknowledgements This paper constitutes an output of the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1). Financial support from the CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the EU-FP7 AnimalChange project is also recognized. P.K.T. acknowledges the support of a CSIRO McMaster Research Fellowship.Peer reviewedPostprin

The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts

Biofuels are promoted as an option to reduce climate emissions from the transport sector. As most biofuels are currently produced from land based crops, there is a concern that the increased consumption of biofuels requires agricultural expansion at a global scale, leading to additional carbon emissions. This effect is called Indirect Land Use Change, or ILUC. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) directed the European Commission to develop a methodology to account for the ILUC effect. The current study serves to provide new insights to the European Commission and other stakeholders about these indirect carbon and land impacts from biofuels consumed in the EU, with more details on production processes and representation of individual feedstocks than was done before. ILUC cannot be observed or measured in reality, because it is entangled with a large number of other changes in agricultural markets at both global and local levels. The effect can only be estimated through the use of models. The current study is part of a continuous effort to improve the understanding and representation of ILUC

A vertex detector for the International Linear Collider based on CMOS sensors

The physics programme at the International Linear Collider (ILC) calls for a vertex detector (VD) providing unprecedented flavour tagging performances, especially for c-quarks and τ leptons. This requirement makes a very granular, thin and multi-layer VD installed very close to the interaction region mandatory. Additional constraints, mainly on read-out speed and radiation tolerance, originate from the beam background, which governs the occupancy and the radiation level the detector should be able to cope with. CMOS sensors are being developed to fulfil these requirements. This report addresses the ILC requirements (highly related to beamstrahlung), the main advantages and features of CMOS sensors, the demonstrated performances and the specific aspects of a VD based on this technology. The status of the main R&D directions (radiation tolerance, thinning procedure and read-out speed) are also presented

Analytic models and forward scattering from accelerator to cosmic-ray energies

Analytic models for hadron-hadron scattering are characterized by analytical parametrizations for the forward amplitudes and the use of dispersion relation techniques to study the total cross section $\sigma_{tot}$ and the $\rho$ parameter. In this paper we investigate four aspects related to the application of the model to $pp$ and $\bar{p}p$ scattering, from accelerator to cosmic-ray energies: 1) the effect of different estimations for $\sigma_{tot}$ from cosmic-ray experiments; 2) the differences between individual and global (simultaneous) fits to $\sigma_{tot}$ and $\rho$; 3) the role of the subtraction constant in the dispersion relations; 4) the effect of distinct asymptotic inputs from different analytic models. This is done by using as a framework the single Pomeron and the maximal Odderon parametrizations for the total cross section. Our main conclusions are the following: 1) Despite the small influence from different cosmic-ray estimations, the results allow us to extract an upper bound for the soft pomeron intercept: $1 + \epsilon = 1.094$; 2) although global fits present good statistical results, in general, this procedure constrains the rise of $\sigma_{tot}$; 3) the subtraction constant as a free parameter affects the fit results at both low and high energies; 4) independently of the cosmic-ray information used and the subtraction constant, global fits with the odderon parametrization predict that, above $\sqrt s \approx 70$ GeV, $\rho_{pp}(s)$ becomes greater than $\rho_{\bar{p}p}(s)$, and this result is in complete agreement with all the data presently available. In particular, we infer $\rho_{pp} = 0.134 \pm 0.005$ at $\sqrt s = 200$ GeV and $0.151 \pm 0.007$ at 500 GeV (BNL RHIC energies).Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, aps-revtex, wording changes, corrected typos, to appear in Physical Review

Alinhamento interpessoal, representacional e morfossintático na Gramática Discursivo-Funcional

Este artigo se debruça sobre o mapeamento entre os Níveis Interpessoal, Representacional e Morfossintático da gramática, o chamado alinhamento, segundo o arcabouço da Gramática Discursivo-Funcional (GDF). Propõe uma tipologia das línguas baseada no que a sua organização morfossintática codifica: distinções pragmáticas (p.ex. em Tagalo), distinções semânticas (p.ex. em Achém), ou distinções inerentes à morfossintaxe (p.ex. em Inglês, Basco ou a língua Kham). A inclusão tanto do Sujeito como do Objeto e de línguas tanto acusativas como ergativas no tratamento do alinhamento morfossintático permitiu-nos abranger tipos tipologicamente mais variáveis e demonstrar o potencial da GDF para a análise contrastiva das línguas.<br>Within the framework of Functional Discourse Grammar (FDG), alignment concerns the relations between the Interpersonal, Representational and Morphosyntactic Levels of grammar. This article proposes a typology of languages based upon what we find to be encoded in their morphosyntactic organization: pragmatic distinctions (as in Tagalog), semantic distinctions (as in Acheh), or distinctions inherent to the morphosyntax (as in English, Basque and Kham). By including both subject and object, and both accusative and ergative languages in our treatment of morphosyntactic alignment, we provide a better coverage of typological variation and show the potential of FDG for cross-linguistic analysis