Fuel poverty, older people and cold weather: An all-island analysis

Executive Summary This report covers a number of different aspects of fuel poverty and older people. 1. An exploration of existing government survey data from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland with a particular focus on older people and conducting additional targeted analyses where required. 2. An original survey in the Republic of Ireland exploring the lived experience of older people in cold weather. 3. A feasibility study of data logging thermometers placed in the homes of older tenants in local authority accommodation. 4. Analysis of excess winter mortality among older people including a consideration of differences between the two jurisdictions. Older people on the island of Ireland, as in many other countries, experience a ‘dual burden’ in terms of fuel poverty. They are more likely to experience fuel poverty and are also particularly vulnerable to health and social harm as a result of this experience. The numbers of older people vulnerable to ill-effects from cold homes will rise as numbers of people aged 80 and over, and those living with chronic illness or disability, increase. There were significant differences observed between expenditure-based, and subjective (EU-SILC) based fuel poverty indicators, for older people, and between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland data. This data required careful interpretation. The higher levels of fuel poverty recorded for older people on the island of Ireland appeared to be driven by all aspects of the fuel poverty model - poor housing condition, energy inefficient housing, rising fuel prices and low income. The majority of older people live in their own home and these homes tend to be older properties which are detached or semi-detached. Older people on the island are over-represented among houses which are in poor condition and which lack central heating in both jurisdictions. Lacking central heating was a more common experience for older people in the Republic of Ireland than in Northern Ireland. Data on energy efficiency measures were not comparable North/South but similar patterns were observed. Older people were less likely than the general population to have attic/loft or wall insulation or double glazing. Older people were also vulnerable from an income point of view. This would seem to be a particular issue in Northern Ireland where rates of income poverty are significantly increasing. In both jurisdictions older people were heavily reliant on social transfers to keep them out of poverty. Coupled with this, there is evidence that many older people are not claiming their full entitlements. Oil dependency was a particular issue in Northern Ireland. Very significant increases were observed in the price of heating oil, as well as electricity and gas in recent years. There was little available research evidence on the relationship between the older consumer and heating oil suppliers

Effects of subgrid-scale snow thickness variability on radiative transfer in sea ice

Snow is a principal factor in controlling heat and light fluxes through sea ice. With the goal of improving radiative and heat flux estimates through sea ice in regional and global models without the need of detailed snow property descriptions, a new parameterization including subgrid-scale snow thickness variability is presented. One-parameter snow thickness distributions depending only on the gridbox-mean snow thickness are introduced resulting in analytical solutions for the fluxes of heat and light through the snow layer. As the snowpack melts, these snow thickness distributions ensure a smooth seasonal transition of the light field under sea ice. Spatially homogenous melting applied to an inhomogeneous distribution of snow thicknesses allows the appearance of bare sea ice areas and melt ponds before all snow has melted. In comparison to uniform-thickness snow used in previous models, the bias in the under sea-ice light field is halved with this parameterization. Model results from a one-dimensional ocean turbulence model coupled with a thermodynamic sea ice model are compared to observations near Resolute in the Canadian High Arctic. The simulations show substantial improvements not only to the light field at the sea ice base which will affect ice algal growth but also to the sea ice and seasonal snowpack evolution. During melting periods, the snowpack can survive longer while sea ice thickness starts to reduce earlier. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

The effect of additive noise on dynamical hysteresis

We investigate the properties of hysteresis cycles produced by a one-dimensional, periodically forced Langevin equation. We show that depending on amplitude and frequency of the forcing and on noise intensity, there are three qualitatively different types of hysteresis cycles. Below a critical noise intensity, the random area enclosed by hysteresis cycles is concentrated near the deterministic area, which is different for small and large driving amplitude. Above this threshold, the area of typical hysteresis cycles depends, to leading order, only on the noise intensity. In all three regimes, we derive mathematically rigorous estimates for expectation, variance, and the probability of deviations of the hysteresis area from its typical value.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figure

Implications of sea-ice biogeochemistry for oceanic production and emissions of dimethyl sulfide in the Arctic

Sea ice represents an additional oceanic source of the climatically active gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) for the Arctic atmosphere. To what extent this source contributes to the dynamics of summertime Arctic clouds is, however, not known due to scarcity of field measurements. In this study, we developed a coupled sea ice–ocean ecosystem–sulfur cycle model to investigate the potential impact of bottom-ice DMS and its precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) on the oceanic production and emissions of DMS in the Arctic. The results of the 1-D model simulation were compared with field data collected during May and June of 2010 in Resolute Passage. Our results reproduced the accumulation of DMS and DMSP in the bottom ice during the development of an ice algal bloom. The release of these sulfur species took place predominantly during the earlier phase of the melt period, resulting in an increase of DMS and DMSP in the underlying water column prior to the onset of an under-ice phytoplankton bloom. Production and removal rates of processes considered in the model are analyzed to identify the processes dominating the budgets of DMS and DMSP both in the bottom ice and the underlying water column. When openings in the ice were taken into account, the simulated sea–air DMS flux during the melt period was dominated by episodic spikes of up to 8.1 µmol m−2 d−1. Further model simulations were conducted to assess the effects of the incorporation of sea-ice biogeochemistry on DMS production and emissions, as well as the sensitivity of our results to changes of uncertain model parameters of the sea-ice sulfur cycle. The results highlight the importance of taking into account both the sea-ice sulfur cycle and ecosystem in the flux estimates of oceanic DMS near the ice margins and identify key uncertainties in processes and rates that should be better constrained by new observations

Performance Characteristics of Fecal Immunochemical Tests for Colorectal Cancer and Advanced Adenomatous Polyps: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Studies report inconsistent performance of fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) for colorectal cancer (CRC) and advanced adenomas. Purpose: To summarize performance characteristics of FITs for CRC and advanced adenomas in average-risk persons undergoing screening colonoscopy (reference standard) and to identify factors affecting these characteristics. Data Sources: Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception through October 2018; reference lists of studies and reviews. Study Selection: Two reviewers independently screened records to identify published English-language prospective or retrospective observational studies that evaluated FIT sensitivity and specificity for colonoscopic findings in asymptomatic, average-risk adults. Data Extraction: Two authors independently extracted data and evaluated study quality. Data Synthesis: Thirty-one studies (120 255 participants; 18 FITs) were included; all were judged to have low to moderate risk of bias. Performance characteristics depended on the threshold for a positive result. A threshold of 10 µg/g resulted in sensitivity of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84 to 0.95) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.10 (CI, 0.06 to 0.19) for CRC, whereas a threshold of greater than 20 µg/g resulted in specificity of 0.95 (CI, 0.94 to 0.96) and a positive likelihood ratio of 15.49 (CI, 9.82 to 22.39). For advanced adenomas, sensitivity was 0.40 (CI, 0.33 to 0.47) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.67 (CI, 0.57 to 0.78) at 10 µg/g, and specificity was 0.95 (CI, 0.94 to 0.96) and the positive likelihood ratio was 5.86 (CI, 3.77 to 8.97) at greater than 20 µg/g. Studies had low to high heterogeneity, depending on the threshold. Although several FITs had adequate performance, sensitivity and specificity for CRC for 1 qualitative FIT were 0.90 and 0.91, respectively, at its single threshold of 10 µg/g; positive and negative likelihood ratios were 10.13 and 0.11, respectively. Comparison of 3 FITs at 3 thresholds was inconclusive: CIs overlapped, and the comparisons were across rather than within studies. Limitations: Only English-language studies were included. Incomplete reporting limited quality assessment of some evidence. Performance characteristics are for 1-time rather than serial testing. Conclusion: Single-application FITs have moderate to high sensitivity and specificity for CRC, depending on the positivity threshold. Sensitivity of 1-time testing for advanced adenomas is low, regardless of the threshold

A genomic island integrated into recA of Vibrio cholerae contains a divergent recA and provides multi-pathway protection from DNA damage

© 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Lateral gene transfer (LGT) has been crucial in the evolution of the cholera pathogen, Vibrio cholerae. The two major virulence factors are present on two different mobile genetic elements, a bacteriophage containing the cholera toxin genes and a genomic island (GI) containing the intestinal adhesin genes. Non-toxigenic V.cholerae in the aquatic environment are a major source of novel DNA that allows the pathogen to morph via LGT. In this study, we report a novel GI from a non-toxigenic V.cholerae strain containing multiple genes involved in DNA repair including the recombination repair gene recA that is 23% divergent from the indigenous recA and genes involved in the translesion synthesis pathway. This is the first report of a GI containing the critical gene recA and the first report of a GI that targets insertion into a specific site within recA. We show that possession of the island in Escherichia coli is protective against DNA damage induced by UV-irradiation and DNA targeting antibiotics. This study highlights the importance of genetic elements such as GIs in the evolution of V.cholerae and emphasizes the importance of environmental strains as a source of novel DNA that can influence the pathogenicity of toxigenic strains

The weak password problem: chaos, criticality, and encrypted p-CAPTCHAs

Vulnerabilities related to weak passwords are a pressing global economic and security issue. We report a novel, simple, and effective approach to address the weak password problem. Building upon chaotic dynamics, criticality at phase transitions, CAPTCHA recognition, and computational round-off errors we design an algorithm that strengthens security of passwords. The core idea of our method is to split a long and secure password into two components. The first component is memorized by the user. The second component is transformed into a CAPTCHA image and then protected using evolution of a two-dimensional dynamical system close to a phase transition, in such a way that standard brute-force attacks become ineffective. We expect our approach to have wide applications for authentication and encryption technologies.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figer

Whole-Genome Sequence Analysis of an Extensively Drug-Resistant Salmonella enterica Serovar Agona Isolate from an Australian Silver Gull (Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae) Reveals the Acquisition of Multidrug Resistance Plasmids.

Although most of the approximately 94 million annual human cases of gastroenteritis due to Salmonella enterica resolve without medical intervention, antimicrobial therapy is recommended for patients with severe disease. Wild birds can be natural hosts of Salmonella that pose a threat to human health; however, multiple-drug-resistant serovars of S. enterica have rarely been described. In 2012, silver gull (Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae) chicks at a major breeding colony were shown to host Salmonella, most isolates of which were susceptible to antibiotics. However, multiple-drug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli with resistance to carbapenems, ceftazidime, and fluoroquinolones was reported from this breeding colony. In this paper, we describe a novel MDR Salmonella strain subsequently isolated from the same breeding colony. SG17-135, an isolate of S. enterica with phenotypic resistance to 12 individual antibiotics but only nine antibiotic classes including penicillins, cephalosporins, monobactams, macrolides, fluoroquinolones, aminoglycosides, dihydrofolate reductase inhibitors (trimethoprim), sulfonamides, and glycylcyclines was recovered from a gull chick in 2017. Whole-genome sequence (WGS) analysis of SG17-135 identified it as Salmonella enterica serovar Agona (S Agona) with a chromosome comprising 4,813,284 bp, an IncHI2 ST2 plasmid (pSG17-135-HI2) of 311,615 bp, and an IncX1 plasmid (pSG17-135-X) of 27,511 bp. pSG17-135-HI2 housed a complex resistance region comprising 16 antimicrobial resistance genes including blaCTX-M-55 The acquisition of MDR plasmids by S. enterica described here poses a serious threat to human health. Our study highlights the importance of taking a One Health approach to identify environmental reservoirs of drug-resistant pathogens and MDR plasmids.IMPORTANCE Defining environmental reservoirs hosting mobile genetic elements that shuttle critically important antibiotic resistance genes is key to understanding antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from a One Health perspective. Gulls frequent public amenities, parklands, and sewage and other waste disposal sites and carry drug-resistant Escherichia coli Here, we report on SG17-135, a strain of Salmonella enterica serovar Agona isolated from the cloaca of a silver gull chick nesting on an island in geographic proximity to the greater metropolitan area of Sydney, Australia. SG17-135 is closely related to pathogenic strains of S Agona, displays resistance to nine antimicrobial classes, and carries important virulence gene cargo. Most of the antibiotic resistance genes hosted by SG17-135 are clustered on a large IncHI2 plasmid and are flanked by copies of IS26 Wild birds represent an important link in the evolution and transmission of resistance plasmids, and an understanding of their behavior is needed to expose the interplay between clinical and environmental microbial communities

Cues and knowledge structures used by mental-health professionals when making risk assessments

Background: Research into mental-health risks has tended to focus on epidemiological approaches and to consider pieces of evidence in isolation. Less is known about the particular factors and their patterns of occurrence that influence clinicians’ risk judgements in practice. Aims: To identify the cues used by clinicians to make risk judgements and to explore how these combine within clinicians’ psychological representations of suicide, self-harm, self-neglect, and harm to others. Method: Content analysis was applied to semi-structured interviews conducted with 46 practitioners from various mental-health disciplines, using mind maps to represent the hierarchical relationships of data and concepts. Results: Strong consensus between experts meant their knowledge could be integrated into a single hierarchical structure for each risk. This revealed contrasting emphases between data and concepts underpinning risks, including: reflection and forethought for suicide; motivation for self-harm; situation and context for harm to others; and current presentation for self-neglect. Conclusions: Analysis of experts’ risk-assessment knowledge identified influential cues and their relationships to risks. It can inform development of valid risk-screening decision support systems that combine actuarial evidence with clinical expertise