Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework

One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement settled on a maturity date. Our purpose is to design a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for an additive, mean-reverting, multicommodity market consisting of forward contracts of any delivery period. The main assumption is that forward prices can be represented as affine functions of a universal source of randomness. This allows us to completely characterize the models which prevent arbitrage opportunities: this boils down to finding a density between a risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$, such that the prices of traded assets like forward contracts are true $\mathbb{Q}$-martingales, and the real world probability measure $\mathbb{P}$, under which forward prices are mean-reverting. The Girsanov kernel for such a transformation turns out to be stochastic and unbounded in the diffusion part, while in the jump part the Girsanov kernel must be deterministic and bounded: thus, in this respect, we prove two results on the martingale property of stochastic exponentials. The first allows to validate measure changes made of two components: an Esscher-type density and a Girsanov transform with stochastic and unbounded kernel. The second uses a different approach and works for the case of continuous density. We apply this framework to two models: a generalized Lucia-Schwartz model and a cross-commodity cointegrated market.Comment: 28 page

PMS31 Economic Evaluation of Adalimumab Versus Other Biologic Treatments for Moderate to Severe Psoriatic Arthritis in Italy

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Pretraživanje tradicionalnih europskih ljekovitih biljaka na inhibiciju acetilkolinesteraze i butirilkolinesteraze

Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitors are widely used for the symptomatic treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) to enhance central cholinergic transmission. On the other hand, butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) inhibitors were reported to produce significant increases in brain extracellular AChE without triggering severe peripheral or central side-effects. In the present study, we selected twelve plants used in traditional European medicine to treat different central nervous system (CNS) disorders or to improve memory. Methanolic and hexane extracts of these plants were tested for the AChE and BuChE inhibitory activity using Ellman’s colorimetric method. The most potent AChE and BuChE inhibition was observed in the hexane extracts of the flowers of Arnica chamissonis Less. susb. foliosa and Ruta graveolens L. herb at a concentration of 400 μg mL1. However, methanolic extracts of the flowers of Arnica chamissonis Less. susb. foliosa and the Hypericum perforatum L. herb demonstrated at the same concentration, selective inhibition only against AChE but not against BuChE. The other extracts did not show any significant AChE or BuChE inhibitory activity. Our results show that further investigations of the extracts of arnica, rue and St. John’s Wort are needed to identify the compounds responsible for the AChE and BuChE inhibitory activityInhibitori acetilkolinesteraze (AChE) povećavaju kolinergičku transmisiju u mozgu, pa se koriste za simptomatsko liječenje Alzheimerove bolesti (AD). S druge strane, inhibitori butirilkolinesteraze (BuChE) značajno povećavaju ekstracelularnu količinu AChE u mozgu, a da pri tome ne uzrokuju snažne nuspojave ni u središnjem ni i perifernom živčanom sustavu. Galantamin, jedan od odobrenih AChE inhibitora, alkaloid iz lukovica narcisa, pokazuje da su biljke značajni izvor novih potencijalnih AChE- i BuChE- inhibitora. U ovom radu, ispitivali smo učinak dvanaest biljaka koje se koriste u tradicionalnoj europskoj medicini na različite poremećaje središnjeg živčanog sustava i na poboljšanje pamćenja. Pomoću Ellmanove kolorimetrijske metode praćen je inhibitorni učinak metanolnih i heksanskih ekstrakata tih biljaka na AChE i BuChE. Najjači inhibitorni učinak pokazali su heksanski ekstrakti cvjetova Arnica chamissonis Less. susb. foliosa i nadzemnih dijelova Ruta graveolens L. u koncentraciji od 400 μg mL1. Međutim, metanolni ekstrakti cvjetova Arnica chamissonis Less. susb. foliosa i nadzemnih dijelova Hypericum perforatum L. u istim koncentracijama pokazuju selektivnu inhibiciju samo na AChE. Ostali ekstrakti bili su nedjelotvorni. Rezultati ukazuju na potrebu daljnjih ispitivanja ekstrakata arnike, rute i gospine trave da se utvrdi koji su sastojci ekstrakata odgovorni za inhibiciju AChE i BuChE

Impact of HPV vaccination : health gains in the Italian female population

Abstract Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the leading cause of cervical cancer and other malignant and benign neoplastic lesions. HPV vaccination has three potential goals: to prevent transmission, infection, and disease. At present, there are no available data about health consequences of HPV immunization in Italy. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of current HPV vaccination strategy in Italy. Methods A multistate morbidity-mortality model was developed to estimate the infection process in a theoretical cohort of Italian women. The Markov process considered nine health states (health, anogenital warts, grade 1 and grade 2/3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer, anal cancer, death due to cervical cancer, anal cancer and other causes), and 26 transition probabilities for each age group. The model was informed with the available data in national and international literature. Effectiveness of immunization was assumed considering a literature review pertaining to models and vaccination coverage rates observed in Italy. Life expectancy (ex), Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and attributable risk (AR) were estimated for no intervention (cervical cancer screening) and vaccination strategies scenarios. Results The model showed that in a cohort of 100,000 Italian women the e0 is equal to 83.1 years. With current HPV vaccination strategy the e0 achieves 83.2 (+0.1) years. When HPV-related diseases are considered altogether, the QALYs increase from 82.7 to 82.9 (+0.2 QALYs) with no intervention and vaccination strategies respectively. DALYs decrease by 0.6 due to vaccination. Finally, AR is equal to 93 and 265 cases per 100,000 women in population and not vaccinated, respectively. Conclusion When mortality due to cervical cancer is considered, HPV vaccination seems to have a low impact on health unit gains in the Italian female population. Conversely, when several HPV-related and cancer morbidity conditions are included, the effect of vaccination becomes quite remarkable

The Italian fund for Alzheimer's and other dementias: strategies and objectives to face the dementia challenge

The Italian Fund for Alzheimer's and other dementias was approved and signed in December 2021. The Fund is financed with 15 million euros in three years. The main goal is to provide new strategies in the field of dementia with a Public Health perspective. The Fund includes eight main activities that will be monitored and supervised by the Italian National Institute of Health: 1) development of a guideline for the assessment, management and support for people with dementia and their families/carers; 2) updating of the Dementia National Plan (DNP); 3) implementation of the documents of the DNP; 4) conducting surveys dedicated to the Italian Dementia Services; 5) promotion of dementia prevention strategies; 6) training strategies for healthcare professionals, families and caregivers; 7) creation of a National Electronic Record for Dementia; 8) evaluation and monitoring of activities promoted by Regions and Autonomous Provinces in the field of dementia, together with the dementia National Permanent Table. These activities are outlined in detail in the present paper

Longitudinal Tracking of Human Fetal Cells Labeled with Super Paramagnetic Iron Oxide Nanoparticles in the Brain of Mice with Motor Neuron Disease

Stem Cell (SC) therapy is one of the most promising approaches for the treatment of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). Here we employed Super Paramagnetic Iron Oxide nanoparticles (SPIOn) and Hoechst 33258 to track human Amniotic Fluid Cells (hAFCs) after transplantation in the lateral ventricles of wobbler (a murine model of ALS) and healthy mice. By in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo approaches we found that: 1) the main physical parameters of SPIOn were maintained over time; 2) hAFCs efficiently internalized SPIOn into the cytoplasm while Hoechst 33258 labeled nuclei; 3) SPIOn internalization did not alter survival, cell cycle, proliferation, metabolism and phenotype of hAFCs; 4) after transplantation hAFCs rapidly spread to the whole ventricular system, but did not migrate into the brain parenchyma; 5) hAFCs survived for a long time in the ventricles of both wobbler and healthy mice; 6) the transplantation of double-labeled hAFCs did not influence mice survival

The Role of Purported Mucoprotectants in Dealing with Irritable Bowel Syndrome, Functional Diarrhea, and Other Chronic Diarrheal Disorders in Adults

Chronic diarrhea is a frequent presenting symptom, both in primary care medicine and in specialized gastroenterology units. It is estimated that more than 5% of the global population suffers from chronic diarrhea. and that about 40% of these subjects are older than 60 years. The clinician is frequently faced with the need to decide which is the best therapeutic approach for these patients. While the origin of chronic diarrhea is diverse, impairment of intestinal barrier function, dysbiosis. and mucosal micro-inflammation are being increasingly recognized as underlying phenomena characterizing a variety of chronic diarrheal diseases. In addition to current pharmacological therapies, there is growing interest in alternative products such as mucoprotectants, which form a mucoadhesive film over the epithelium to reduce and protect against the development of altered intestinal permeability, dysbiosis, and mucosal micro-inflammation. This manuscript focuses on chronic diarrhea in adults, and we will review recent evidence on the ability of these natural compounds to improve symptoms associated with chronic diarrhea and to exert protective effects for the intestinal barrier

Direct and indirect costs of immunoglobulin replacement therapy in patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) and X-Linked agammaglobulinemia (XLA) in Italy

In Italy, there is scarce evidence on the epidemiological and economic burden induced by primary antibody deficiencies

Erythropoietin: a multimodal neuroprotective agent

The tissue protective functions of the hematopoietic growth factor erythropoietin (EPO) are independent of its action on erythropoiesis. EPO and its receptors (EPOR) are expressed in multiple brain cells during brain development and upregulated in the adult brain after injury. Peripherally administered EPO crosses the blood-brain barrier and activates in the brain anti-apoptotic, anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory signaling in neurons, glial and cerebrovascular endothelial cells and stimulates angiogenesis and neurogenesis. These mechanisms underlie its potent tissue protective effects in experimental models of stroke, cerebral hemorrhage, traumatic brain injury, neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative disease. The preclinical data in support of the use of EPO in brain disease have already been translated to first clinical pilot studies with encouraging results with the use of EPO as a neuroprotective agent