Risk-based audits in a behavioural model.

The tools of predictive analytics are widely used in the analysis of large data sets to predict future patterns in the system. In particular, predictive analytics is used to estimate risk of engaging in certain behavior. Risk-based audits are used by revenue services to target potentially noncompliant taxpayers, but the results of predictive analytics serve predominantly only as a guide rather than a rule. “Auditor judgment” retains an important role in selecting audit targets. This article assesses the effectiveness of using predictive analytics in a model of the compliance decision that incorporates several components from behavioral economics: subjective beliefs about audit probabilities, a social custom reward from honest tax payment, and a degree of risk aversion that increases with age. Simulation analysis shows that predictive analytics are successful in raising compliance and that the resulting pattern of audits is very close to being a cutoff rule

How fiscally tolerable is Thailand’s social security pension fund to early retirement decisions?

This research paper assesses the fiscal tolerability of the Thai Social Security Pension Fund to early retirement decisions, particularly among the workforce aged 50-54. Starting from 2014, the Social Security Pension Fund is due to pay regular monthly pension benefits to eligible insured persons. There has been increasing concern over the potentially high proportion of early retirees opting for one-time lump-sum old-age benefits instead of the more modest amount of monthly retirement pension. This can create severe shocks to the system. Forecasts and sensitivity analyses under alternative scenarios are conducted using an actuarial method. The estimation employs the latest 2010 National Economic and Social Development Board population forecast. In the worst case scenario, with an early retirement rate of 9 percent or higher per year, the tolerability of the system can be maintained for no longer than 25 years from now. The future generations risk facing a situation in which the old-age benefits may not be promptly received in the expected amount. This points to the important policy precaution that the currently high level of reserves in the Social Security Pension Fund does not ensure fiscal sustainability and tolerability as commonly believed. The result also implies that withdrawal from the social security pension fund by the government for other purposes is fiscally detrimental to life of the fund.Euamporn Phijaisanit, Gareth D Myle

Effects of daily herbage allowance and stage of lactation on the intake and performance of dairy cows in early summer

peer-reviewedThis research was part-funded by European Union Structural Funds (EAGGF).The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between daily herbage allowance (DHA) and the performance of dairy cows at two stages of lactation. Spring-calving (n=42, mean calving date 17 February) and autumn-calving (n=42, mean calving date 22 September) Friesian cows were divided into three equal groups and assigned to three levels of DHA (above a cutting height of 35 mm), 17 (L), 20 (M) and 23 (H) kg of dry matter (DM) per head, from late April to late June, 1996. The spring-calving cows grazed to sward heights (mm) of 47, 56 and 65 (s.e. 0.6) and residual herbage organic matter (OM) masses (above 35 mm) of 294, 408 and 528 (s.e. 12.1) kg/ha for L, M and H, respectively. The autumn-calving cows grazed to corresponding sward heights of 51, 60 and 69 (s.e. 1.1) mm and leftresidual herbage OM masses of 364, 445 and 555 (s.e. 12.9) kg/ha for L, M and H, respectively. Pastures were mechanically topped post grazing. Spring-calving cows consumed 13.3, 14.7 and 15.5 kg OM (s.e. 0.47) per day, and autumn-calving cows consumed 13.3, 13.8 and 14.9 kg OM (s.e. 0.43) per day for L, M and H, respectively. Mean daily solids-corrected milk yield was 23.1, 23.8 and 24.8 (s.e. 0.34) kg for the spring-calving cows, and 17.5, 18.4 and 18.7 (s.e. 0.35) kg for the autumncalving cows, for L, M and H, respectively. Milk yield could be predicted from preexperimental yield (PMY) and daily herbage organic matter allowance (DOMA, kg) according to the following equation: y = −1.13 + 0.76 (s.e. 0.030) PMY + 0.22 (s.e. 0.057) DOMA (r.s.d. 1.32, R2 0.89). The results indicate that high individual cow and herd production levels can be achieved from high quality herbage alone during early summer at a DHA of 23 kg DM for spring-calving cows and 20 kg DM for autumn-calving cows.European Unio

The approach to a superconductor-to-Bose-insulator transition in disordered films

Through a detailed study of scaling near the magnetic field-tuned superconductor-to-insulator transition in strongly disordered films, we find that results for a variety of materials can be collapsed onto a single phase diagram. The data display two clear branches, one with weak disorder and an intervening metallic phase, the other with strong disorder. Along the strongly disordered branch, the resistance at the critical point approaches $R_Q = h/4e^2$ and the scaling of the resistance is consistent with quantum percolation, and therefore with the predictions of the dirty boson model.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Amphioxus SYCP1 : a case of retrogene replacement and co-option of regulatory elements adjacent to the ParaHox cluster

MGG was supported by the University of St Andrews School of Biology Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council DTG and the Wellcome Trust ISSF. Work in the authors’ laboratory is also supported by the Leverhulme Trust.Retrogenes are formed when an mRNA is reverse transcribed and re-inserted into the genome in a location unrelated to the original locus. If this retrocopy inserts into a transcriptionally favourable locus and is able to carry out its original function, it can, in rare cases, lead to retrogene replacement. This involves the original, often multi-exonic, parental copy being lost whilst the newer single-exon retrogene copy ‘replaces’ the role of the ancestral parent gene. One example of this is amphioxus SYCP1, a gene that encodes a protein used in synaptonemal complex formation during meiosis, and which offers the opportunity to examine how a retrogene evolves after the retrogene replacement event. SYCP1 genes exist as large multi-exonic genes in most animals. AmphiSYCP1, however, contains a single coding exon of ~3200bp and has inserted next to the ParaHox cluster of amphioxus, whilst the multi-exonic ancestral parental copy has been lost. Here, we show that AmphiSYCP1 has not only replaced its parental copy, but has evolved additional regulatory function by co- opting a bidirectional promoter from the nearby AmphiCHIC gene. AmphiSYCP1 has also evolved a de novo, multi-exonic 5’untranslated region that displays distinct regulatory states, in the form of two different isoforms, and has evolved novel expression patterns during amphioxus embryogenesis in addition to its ancestral role in meiosis. Absence of ParaHox-like expression of AmphiSYCP1, despite its proximity to the ParaHox cluster, also suggests this gene is not influenced by any potential pan-cluster regulatory mechanisms, which are seemingly restricted to only the ParaHox genes themselves.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Rate of undesirable events at beginning of academic year: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether an increase in the rate of undesirable events occurs after care provided by trainees at the beginning of the academic year. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using administrative and patient record data. SETTING: University affiliated hospital in Melbourne, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 19,560 patients having an anaesthetic procedure carried out by first to fifth year trainees starting work for the first time at the hospital over a period of five years (1995-2000). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute event rates, absolute rate reduction, and rate ratios of undesirable events. RESULTS: The rate of undesirable events was higher at the beginning of the academic year compared with the rest of the year (absolute event rate 137 v 107 per 1000 patient hours, relative rate reduction 28%, P<0.001). The overall adjusted rate ratio for undesirable events was 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.24 to 1.58. This excess risk was seen for all residents, regardless of their level of seniority. The excess risk decreased progressively after the first month, and the trend disappeared fully after the fourth month of the year (rate ratio for fourth month 1.21, 0.93 to 1.57). The most important decreases were for central and peripheral nerve injuries (relative difference 82%), inadequate oxygenation of the patient (66%), vomiting/aspiration in theatre (53%), and technical failures of tracheal tube placement (49%). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of undesirable events was greater among trainees at the beginning of the academic year regardless of their level of clinical experience. This suggests that several additional factors, such as knowledge of the working environment, teamwork, and communication, may contribute to the increase

The comparative clinical course of pregnant and non-pregnant women hospitalised with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection

Introduction: The Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN) was established to gather detailed clinical and epidemiological information about patients with laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in UK hospitals. This report focuses on the clinical course and outcomes of infection in pregnancy.Methods: A standardised data extraction form was used to obtain detailed clinical information from hospital case notes and electronic records, for patients with PCR-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection admitted to 13 sentinel hospitals in five clinical 'hubs' and a further 62 non-sentinel hospitals, between 11th May 2009 and 31st January 2010.Outcomes were compared for pregnant and non-pregnant women aged 15-44 years, using univariate and multivariable techniques.Results: Of the 395 women aged 15-44 years, 82 (21%) were pregnant; 73 (89%) in the second or third trimester. Pregnant women were significantly less likely to exhibit severe respiratory distress at initial assessment (OR?=?0.49 (95% CI: 0.30-0.82)), require supplemental oxygen on admission (OR?=?0.40 (95% CI: 0.20-0.80)), or have underlying co-morbidities (p-trend <0.001). However, they were equally likely to be admitted to high dependency (Level 2) or intensive care (Level 3) and/or to die, after adjustment for potential confounders (adj. OR?=?0.93 (95% CI: 0.46-1.92). Of 11 pregnant women needing Level 2/3 care, 10 required mechanical ventilation and three died.Conclusions: Since the expected prevalence of pregnancy in the source population was 6%, our data suggest that pregnancy greatly increased the likelihood of hospital admission with A(H1N1)pdm09. Pregnant women were less likely than non-pregnant women to have respiratory distress on admission, but severe outcomes were equally likely in both groups