Modelling the impact of agroforestry on hydrology of Mara River Basin in East Africa

Land�use change is one of the main drivers of change of watershed hydrology. The effect of forestry related land�use changes (e.g. afforestation, deforestation, agroforestry) on water fluxes depends on climate, watershed characteristics and spatial scale. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated, validated and used to simulate the impact of agroforestry on the water balance in Mara River Basin (MRB) in East Africa. Model performance was assessed by Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The NSE (and KGE) values for calibration and validation were: 0.77 (0.88) and 0.74 (0.85) for the Nyangores sub-watershed, and 0.78 (0.89) and 0.79 (0.63) for the entire MRB. It was found that agroforestry in the watershed would generally reduce surface runoff, mainly due to enhanced infiltration. However, it would also increase evapotranspiration and consequently reduce the baseflow and the overall water yield, which was attributed to increased water use by trees. Spatial scale was found to have a significant effect on water balance; the impact of agroforestry was higher at the smaller headwater catchment (Nyangores) than for the larger watershed (entire MRB). However, the rate of change in water yield with increase in area under agroforestry was different for the two and could be attributed to the spatial variability of climate within MRB. Our results suggest that direct extrapolation of the findings from a small sub-catchment to a larger watershed may not always be accurate. These findings could guide watershed managers on the level of trade-offs to make between reduced water yields and other benefits (e.g. soil erosion control, improved soil productivity) offered by agroforestry. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Music Consumption in China : A Qualitative Study on Chinese Consumer Behavior in Consuming Music and Its Merchandise

In the past few decades people’s attitude towards music consumption has tremendously changed in China. With the constantly rising market and huge potential space, it is necessary to study the consumer behavior and explore factors that decide people’s willingness to pay in music consumption. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to investigate: 1) What factors may influence the Chinese consumer behavior on music and its merchandise; 2) What factors may influence the “willingness to pay” of Chinese consumer in music consumption; 3) The similarities and differences between the consumption of music product and musical merchandise in China. The authors select the qualitative method and set up two focus groups, music product group and music merchandise group, in this study. Finally, they found five dimensions (musical preference & identity, culture of music, musical loyalty & satisfaction, Chinese music consumption, willingness to pay) will interaction with each other and influence Chinese consumer behavior on music product and its merchandise

Left ventricular function in endurance-trained children by tissue Doppler imaging

BACKGROUND: In-home iron fortification for infants in developing countries is recommended for control of anaemia, but low absorption typically results in >80% of the iron passing into the colon. Iron is essential for growth and virulence of many pathogenic enterobacteria. We determined the effect of high and low dose in-home iron fortification on the infant gut microbiome and intestinal inflammation. METHODS: We performed two double-blind randomised controlled trials in 6-month-old Kenyan infants (n=115) consuming home-fortified maize porridge daily for 4 months. In the first, infants received a micronutrient powder (MNP) containing 2.5 mg iron as NaFeEDTA or the MNP without iron. In the second, they received a different MNP containing 12.5 mg iron as ferrous fumarate or the MNP without the iron. The primary outcome was gut microbiome composition analysed by 16S pyrosequencing and targeted real-time PCR (qPCR). Secondary outcomes included faecal calprotectin (marker of intestinal inflammation) and incidence of diarrhoea. We analysed the trials separately and combined. RESULTS: At baseline, 63% of the total microbial 16S rRNA could be assigned to Bifidobacteriaceae but there were high prevalences of pathogens, including Salmonella Clostridium difficile, Clostridium perfringens, and pathogenic Escherichia coli. Using pyrosequencing, +FeMNPs increased enterobacteria, particularly Escherichia/Shigella (p=0.048), the enterobacteria/bifidobacteria ratio (p=0.020), and Clostridium (p=0.030). Most of these effects were confirmed using qPCR; for example, +FeMNPs increased pathogenic E. coli strains (p=0.029). +FeMNPs also increased faecal calprotectin (p=0.002). During the trial, 27.3% of infants in +12.5 mgFeMNP required treatment for diarrhoea versus 8.3% in -12.5 mgFeMNP (p=0.092). There were no study-related serious adverse events in either group. CONCLUSIONS: In this setting, provision of iron-containing MNPs to weaning infants adversely affects the gut microbiome, increasing pathogen abundance and causing intestinal inflammation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01111864

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

Background: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. Methods: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. Results: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. Conclusions: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Medical Research Council of South Africa gran