Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions

Jezero Crater, Mars, as a Compelling Site for Future In Situ Exploration

Jezero is a approximately 45 km diameter impact crater located in the Nili Fossae region of Mars. Jezero is an outstanding site to address key questions of ancient Mars climate, habitability, and volcanic history because: (a) It hosted an open-basin lake during the era of valley network formation [1,2], which ceased at approximately the Noachian-Hesperian boundary [3]. (b) It contains two delta deposits [1,4] with Fe/Mg-smectite and Mg-carbonate sediment [4-7] (the only exposure of lacus-trine shoreline carbonates seen so far on Mars). (c) The depositional environment and mineral assemblage of the delta are promising for the concentration and preservation of organic matter [5,8]. (d) The diverse geologic units in Jezero are in clear stratigraphic context [7]. The Jezero paleolake system has been thoroughly investigated at a variety of scales, including work on: the mineralogy of the delta deposits [4-6] and watershed [7], as well as the morphology and sedimentology of the basin [9] and delta deposits [1,4]. The geologic context of Jezero is also well-studied given the broad suite of alteration minerals exposed in the ancient stratigraphies of the Nili Fossae region [e.g., 6,10-13]. Here we present an overview of the units accessible for exploration in the Jezero basin, including questions and hypotheses that can be tested through analysis in situ and of returned samples. This is particularly timely given the upcoming Mars 2020 mission, for which Jezero is one of the final eight landing sites [14]. Primary science objectives for Mars 2020 are to: (1) characterize the geologic history of a site with "evidence of an astrobiologically-relevant ancient environment and geologic diversity"; (2) assess the habitability and "potential evidence of past life" in units with "high biosignature preservation potential"; and (3) cache scientifically compelling samples for potential return to Earth [15]

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Clay Bearing Units in the Region around Mawrth Vallis: Stratigraphy, Extent, and Possible Alteration Fronts

The largest exposure of phyllosilicates on Mars occurs on the highland plains around Mawrth Vallis. This exposure extends for about 300 km southward from the edge of the dichotomy boundary, covering an area greater than 200 x 300 kilometers over an elevation range of approximately 2000 meters. At least two different types of hydrated phyllosilicates (Fe/Mg-rich and Al-rich phyllosilicates) have been identified in OMEGA data based on absorption bands near 2.3 and 2.2 micrometers, respectively. These clay-bearing units are associated with layered, indurated light-toned units with complex spatial and stratigraphic relationships, and are unconfomably overlain by a darker, indurated, more heavily cratered unit. Ongoing analysis of OMEGA (approximately 1 kilometer/pixel) and CRISM multi-spectral (MSP, 200 meters/pixel) data reveal hydrated minerals with absorptions at approximately 2.2 or 2.3 micrometers in locations up to 300 kilometers away from the borders of the previously identified extent of clay-bearing units. We seek to: 1) further constrain the mineralogy of the hydrated species identified in [5], and 2) understand spatial and stratigraphic relationships between the different hydrated minerals and the cratered plains units in which they are found. In this work we perform mineralogical and stratigraphic comparisons between units to test whether these extended units may be related, in order to establish a broad zone of alteration

Phyllosilicate Diversity and Past Aqueous Activity Revealed at Mawrth Vallis, Mars

Observations by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter/Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars in the Mawrth Vallis region show several phyllosilicate species, indicating a wide range of past aqueous activity. Iron/magnesium (Fe/Mg)–smectite is observed in light-toned outcrops that probably formed via aqueous alteration of basalt of the ancient cratered terrain. This unit is overlain by rocks rich in hydrated silica, montmorillonite, and kaolinite that may have formed via subsequent leaching of Fe and Mg through extended aqueous events or a change in aqueous chemistry. A spectral feature attributed to an Fe^(2+) phase is present in many locations in the Mawrth Vallis region at the transition from Fe/Mg-smectite to aluminum/silicon (Al/Si)–rich units. Fe^(2+)-bearing materials in terrestrial sediments are typically associated with microorganisms or changes in pH or cations and could be explained here by hydrothermal activity. The stratigraphy of Fe/Mg-smectite overlain by a ferrous phase, hydrated silica, and then Al-phyllosilicates implies a complex aqueous history

Identification of a New Spinel-Rich Lunar Rock Type by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M (sup 3))

The canonical characterization of the lunar crust is based principally on available Apollo, Luna, and meteorite samples. The crust is described as an anorthosite-rich cumulate produced by the lunar magma ocean that has been infused with a mix of Mgsuite components. These have been mixed and redistributed during the late heavy bombardment and basin forming events. We report a new rock-type detected on the farside of the Moon by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) on Chandrayaan-1 that does not easily fit with current crustal evolution models. The rock-type is dominated by Mg-spinel with no detectible pyroxene or olivine present (<5%). It occurs along the western inner ring of Moscoviense Basin as one of several discrete areas that exhibit unusual compositions relative to their surroundings but without morphological evidence for separate processes leading to exposure

Water induced sediment levitation enhances downslope transport on Mars

On Mars, locally warm surface temperatures (~293 K) occur, leading to the possibility of (transient) liquid water on the surface. However, water exposed to the martian atmosphere will boil, and the sediment transport capacity of such unstable water is not well understood. Here, we present laboratory studies of a newly recognized transport mechanism: “levitation” of saturated sediment bodies on a cushion of vapor released by boiling. Sediment transport where this mechanism is active is about nine times greater than without this effect, reducing the amount of water required to transport comparable sediment volumes by nearly an order of magnitude. Our calculations show that the effect of levitation could persist up to ~48 times longer under reduced martian gravity. Sediment levitation must therefore be considered when evaluating the formation of recent and present-day martian mass wasting features, as much less water may be required to form such features than previously thought