Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases

Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks

Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical–statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches

Mothers of Soldiers in Wartime: A National News Narrative

National news media represent mothers of US combat soldiers in the Iraq War as archetypal good mothers, that is, mothers who continue their maternal work even after their children are deployed. However, not all mothers are depicted as the archetypal patriotic mother, i.e., a good mother who is also stoic and silent about the war and her child\u27s role in it. Mothers of soldiers are portrayed as good mothers who sometimes also voice their attitudes about the war effort. The maternal attitudes ranged from complete support for the war to opposition to the war but support for the soldiers. The findings suggest a picture of wartime motherhood that is more nuanced than the historical image of the patriotic mother suggests

Are sexual health survey items understood as intended by African and Asian migrants to Australia? Methods, results and recommendations for qualitative pretesting

Introduction: More research and policy action are needed to improve migrant health in areas such as sexual health and blood-borne viruses (SHBBV). While Knowledge, Attitudes and Practice Surveys (KAPS) can inform planning, there are no SHBBV KAPS suitable for use across culturally and linguistically diverse contexts. This study pretests one instrument among people born in Sub-Saharan Africa, South-East and North-East Asia living in Australia. Methods: Employees of multicultural organisations were trained to collect data over three rounds using a hybrid qualitative pretesting method. Two researchers independently coded data. Researchers made revisions to survey items after each round. Responses to feedback questions in the final survey were analysed. Results: Sixty-two participants pretested the survey. Issues were identified in all three rounds of pretesting. Of the 77 final survey respondents who responded to a survey experience question, 21% agreed and 3% strongly agreed with the statement ‘I found it hard to understand some questions/words’. Conclusion: It is essential to pretest SHBBV surveys in migrant contexts. We offer the following pretesting guidance: (1) large samples are needed in heterogeneous populations; (2) intersectionality must be considered; (3) it may be necessary to pretest English language surveys in the participants’ first language; (4) bilingual/bicultural workers must be adequately trained to collect data; (5) results need to be interpreted in the context of other factors, including ethics and research aims; and (6) pretesting should occur over multiple rounds

Estimating Attributes of Nuclear Weapon and Other Fissile Material Configuration Using Features Of Nuclear Materials Identification Signatures

This brief describes a strategy that, when implemented, will allow the attributes, i.e., the physical properties, of nuclear weapon and other configurations of fissile material to be estimated from Nuclear Material Identification System (NMIS) signatures for arms control, treaty verification, and transparency purposes. Attributes are estimated by condensing measured NMIS signatures into ''features'' that approximately represent physical characteristics of the measurement such as gamma-ray transmission, induced fission, etc. The features are obtained from NMIS signatures to estimate quantities related to gamma and neutron transmission through the inspected item and gamma and neutron scattering and production via induced fission within the inspected item. Multivariate, i.e., multiple-feature, linear models have been successfully employed to estimate attributes, and multivariate nonlinear models are currently under investigation. Attributes estimated employing this strategy can then be examined to test the supposition that the inspected item is in fact a nuclear weapon

Spatio-temporal optimization of sampling for bluetongue vectors (<em>Culicoides</em>) near grazing livestock

BACKGROUND: Estimating the abundance of Culicoides using light traps is influenced by a large variation in abundance in time and place. This study investigates the optimal trapping strategy to estimate the abundance or presence/absence of Culicoides on a field with grazing animals. We used 45 light traps to sample specimens from the Culicoides obsoletus species complex on a 14 hectare field during 16 nights in 2009. FINDINGS: The large number of traps and catch nights enabled us to simulate a series of samples consisting of different numbers of traps (1-15) on each night. We also varied the number of catch nights when simulating the sampling, and sampled with increasing minimum distances between traps. We used resampling to generate a distribution of different mean and median abundance in each sample. Finally, we used the hypergeometric distribution to estimate the probability of falsely detecting absence of vectors on the field. The variation in the estimated abundance decreased steeply when using up to six traps, and was less pronounced when using more traps, although no clear cutoff was found. CONCLUSIONS: Despite spatial clustering in vector abundance, we found no effect of increasing the distance between traps. We found that 18 traps were generally required to reach 90% probability of a true positive catch when sampling just one night. But when sampling over two nights the same probability level was obtained with just three traps per night. The results are useful for the design of vector monitoring programmes on fields with grazing animals

Heart failure during the COVID-19 pandemic: clinical, diagnostic, management, and organizational dilemmas

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) infection pandemic has affected the care of patients with heart failure (HF). Several consensus documents describe the appropriate diagnostic algorithm and treatment approach for patients with HF and associated COVID-19 infection. However, few questions about the mechanisms by which COVID can exacerbate HF in patients with high-risk (Stage B) or symptomatic HF (Stage C) remain unanswered. Therefore, the type of HF occurring during infection is poorly investigated. The diagnostic differentiation and management should be focused on the identification of the HF phenotype, underlying causes, and subsequent tailored therapy. In this framework, the relationship existing between COVID and onset of acute decompensated HF, isolated right HF, and cardiogenic shock is questioned, and the specific management is mainly based on local hospital organization rather than a standardized model. Similarly, some specific populations such as advanced HF, heart transplant, patients with left ventricular assist device (LVAD), or valve disease remain under investigated. In this systematic review, we examine recent advances regarding the relationships between HF and COVID-19 pandemic with respect to epidemiology, pathogenetic mechanisms, and differential diagnosis. Also, according to the recent HF guidelines definition, we highlight different clinical profile identification, pointing out the main concerns in understudied HF populations.© 2022 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology

Association between loop diuretic dose changes and outcomes in chronic heart failure: observations from the ESC-EORP Heart Failure Long-Term Registry

[Abstract] Aims. Guidelines recommend down-titration of loop diuretics (LD) once euvolaemia is achieved. In outpatients with heart failure (HF), we investigated LD dose changes in daily cardiology practice, agreement with guideline recommendations, predictors of successful LD down-titration and association between dose changes and outcomes. Methods and results. We included 8130 HF patients from the ESC-EORP Heart Failure Long-Term Registry. Among patients who had dose decreased, successful decrease was defined as the decrease not followed by death, HF hospitalization, New York Heart Association class deterioration, or subsequent increase in LD dose. Mean age was 66±13 years, 71% men, 62% HF with reduced ejection fraction, 19% HF with mid-range ejection fraction, 19% HF with preserved ejection fraction. Median [interquartile range (IQR)] LD dose was 40 (25–80) mg. LD dose was increased in 16%, decreased in 8.3% and unchanged in 76%. Median (IQR) follow-up was 372 (363–419) days. Diuretic dose increase (vs. no change) was associated with HF death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–2.08; P = 0.008] and nominally with cardiovascular death (HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.96–1.63; P = 0.103). Decrease of diuretic dose (vs. no change) was associated with nominally lower HF (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.33–1.07; P = 0.083) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.62 95% CI 0.38–1.00; P = 0.052). Among patients who had LD dose decreased, systolic blood pressure [odds ratio (OR) 1.11 per 10 mmHg increase, 95% CI 1.01–1.22; P = 0.032], and absence of (i) sleep apnoea (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.09–0.69; P = 0.008), (ii) peripheral congestion (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.29–0.80; P = 0.005), and (iii) moderate/severe mitral regurgitation (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.37–0.87; P = 0.008) were independently associated with successful decrease. Conclusion. Diuretic dose was unchanged in 76% and decreased in 8.3% of outpatients with chronic HF. LD dose increase was associated with worse outcomes, while the LD dose decrease group showed a trend for better outcomes compared with the no-change group. Higher systolic blood pressure, and absence of (i) sleep apnoea, (ii) peripheral congestion, and (iii) moderate/severe mitral regurgitation were independently associated with successful dose decrease

Navigating intimate trans citizenship while incarcerated in Australia and the United States

Trans women incarcerated throughout the world have been described as 'vulnerable populations' due to significant victimization, mistreatment, lack of gender-affirming care, and human rights violations, which confers greater risk of trauma, self-harm, and suicide compared with the general incarcerated population. Most incarceration settings around the world are segregated by the person’s sex characteristics (i.e., male or female) and governed by strong cis and gender normative paradigms. This analysis seeks to better understand and appreciate how the 'instructions' and the 'authorities' that regulate trans women’s corporeal representation, housing options and sense of self-determination implicate and affect their agency and actions in handling intimacies related to their personal life. Drawing upon lived incarcerated experiences of 24 trans women in Australia and the United States, and employing Ken Plummer’s notion of intimate citizenship, this analysis explores how trans women navigate choices and ways 'to do' gender, identities, bodies, emotions, desires and relationships while incarcerated in men’s prisons and governed by cis and gender normative paradigms. This critical analysis contributes to understanding how incarcerated trans women through grit, resilience, and ingenuity still navigate ways to embody, express and enact their intimate citizenship in innovative and unique ways

A re-appraisal of volume status and renal function impairment in chronic heart failure: combined effects of pre-renal failure and venous congestion on renal function

The association between cardiac failure and renal function impairment has gained wide recognition over the last decade. Both structural damage in the form of systemic atherosclerosis and (patho) physiological hemodynamic changes may explain this association. As regards hemodynamic factors, renal impairment in chronic heart failure is traditionally assumed to be mainly due to a decrease in cardiac output and a subsequent decrease in renal perfusion. This will lead to a decrease in glomerular filtration rate and a compensatory increase in tubular sodium retention. The latter is a physiological renal response aimed at retaining fluids in order to increase cardiac filling pressure and thus renal perfusion. In heart failure, however, larger increases in cardiac filling pressure are needed to restore renal perfusion and thus more volume retention. In this concept, in chronic heart failure, an equilibrium exists where a certain degree of congestion is the price to be paid to maintain adequate renal perfusion and function. Recently, this hypothesis was challenged by new studies, wherein it was found that the association between right-sided cardiac filling pressures and renal function is bimodal, with worse renal function at the highest filling pressures, reflecting a severely congested state. Renal hemodynamic studies suggest that congestion negatively affects renal function in particular in patients in whom renal perfusion is also compromised. Thus, an interplay between cardiac forward failure and backward failure is involved in the renal function impairment in the congestive state, presumably along with other factors. Only few data are available on the impact of intervention in volume status on the cardio-renal interaction. Sparse data in cardiac patients as well as evidence from cohorts with primary renal disease suggest that specific targeting of volume overload may be beneficial for long-term outcome, in spite of a certain further decrease in renal function, at least in the context of current treatment where possible reflex neurohumoral activation is ameliorated by the background treatment by blockers of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system