The Influence of Weather on Mortality in Rural Tanzania: A Time-Series Analysis 1999�-2010

Weather and climate changes are associated with a number of immediate and long-term impacts on human health that occur directly or indirectly, through mediating variables. Few studies to date have established the empirical relationship between monthly weather and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. The objectives of this study were to assess the association between monthly weather (temperature and rainfall) on all-cause mortality by age in Rufiji, Tanzania, and to determine the differential susceptibility by age groups. We used mortality data from Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (RHDSS) for\ud the period 1999 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between monthly weather and mortality adjusted for long-term trends. We used a distributed lag model to estimate the delayed association of monthly weather on mortality. We stratified the analyses per age group to assess susceptibility. In general, rainfall was found to have a stronger association in the age group 0_4 years (RR_1.001, 95% CI_0.961_1.041) in both short and long lag times, with an overall increase of 1.4% in mortality risk for a 10 mm rise in rainfall. On the other hand, monthly average temperature had a stronger association with death in all ages while mortality increased with falling monthly temperature. The association per age group was estimated as: age group 0_4 (RR_0.934, 95% CI_0.894_0.974), age group 5_59 (RR_0.956, 95% CI_ 0.928_0.985) and age group over 60 (RR_0.946, 95% CI_0.912_0.979). The age group 5_59 experienced more delayed lag associations. This suggests that children and older adults are most sensitive to weather related mortality. These results suggest that an early alert system based on monthly weather information may be useful for disease control management, to reduce and prevent fatal effects related to weather and monthly weather.\u

Associations between the use of insecticide-treated nets in early childhood and educational outcomes, marriage and child-bearing in early adulthood: evidence from a 22-year prospective cohort study in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in preventing malaria in young children is well established. However, the long-term effects of early childhood ITN use on educational outcomes, fertility, and marriage in early adulthood are not well understood. METHODS: This study uses 22 years of longitudinal data from rural Tanzania to investigate the associations between early life ITN use and educational attainment, fertility and marriage in early adulthood. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate the associations between early life ITN use and early adult outcomes (education, childbearing, and marriage), controlling for potential confounders, such as parental education, household asset quintiles, and year of birth. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women. RESULTS: A total of 6706 participants born between 1998 and 2000 were enrolled in the study between 1998 and 2003. By 2019 a total of 604 had died and a further 723 could not be found, leaving 5379 participants who were interviewed, among whom complete data were available for 5216. Among women, sleeping under a treated net at least half of the time during early childhood ["high ITN use"] was associated with a 13% increase in the odds of completing primary school (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.13 [0.85, 1.50]) and with a 40% increase in the odds of completing secondary school (aOR 1.40 [1.11, 1.76]) compared with women sleeping less frequently under ITNs in early life (< age 5 years). Among men, high ITN use was associated with a 50% increase in the odds of completing primary school (aOR 1.50 [1.18, 1.92]) and a 56% increase in the odds of completing secondary school (aOR 1.56 [1.16, 2.08]) compared to men with low ITN use in early life. Weaker associations were found between ITN use in early life and both adolescent childbearing (aOR 0.91 [0.75, 1.10]) and early marriage (aOR 0.86 [0.69, 1.05]). CONCLUSION: This study found that early life use of ITNs was strongly associated with increased school completion in both men and women. More marginal associations were found between early-life ITN use and both marriage and child-bearing in early adulthood. ITN use during early childhood may have long-term positive effects on educational attainment in Tanzania. However, further research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind these associations and to explore the broader impacts of ITN use on other aspects of early adult life

Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Rufiji HDSS)

The Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) was established in October 1998 to evaluate the impact on burden of disease of health system reforms based on locally generated data, prioritization, resource allocation and planning for essential health interventions. The Rufiji HDSS collects detailed information on health and survival and provides a framework for population-based health research of relevance to local and national health priorities. In December 2012 the population under surveillance was about 105 503 people, residing in 19 315 households. Monitoring of households and members within households is undertaken in regular 6-month cycles known as ‘rounds'. Self reported information is collected on demographic, household, socioeconomic and geographical characteristics. Verbal autopsy is conducted using standardized questionnaires, to determine probable causes of death. In conjunction with core HDSS activities, the ongoing studies in Rufiji HDSS focus on maternal and new-born health, evaluation of safety of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) exposure in early pregnancy and the clinical safety of a fixed dose of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQP) in the community. Findings of studies conducted in Rufiji HDSS can be accessed at www.ihi.or.tz/IHI-Digital-Librar

Estimating drowning mortality in Tanzania: a systematic review and meta-analysis of existing data sources.

BACKGROUND: The WHO advocates a 7-step process to enable countries to develop and implement drowning prevention strategies. We sought to assess, using existing data sources, the drowning situation in Tanzania as a first step in this process. METHODS: We searched for data on causes of death in Tanzania by reviewing existing literature and global datasets and by in-country networking. Authors and institutions were then contacted to request aggregate data on drowning mortality. Site-specific drowning estimates were combined using a random effects meta-analytic approach. We also tested for evidence of variations in drowning estimates by sex and by age group. RESULTS: We acquired partial or complete information on drowning deaths for 13 data sources. We found strong evidence for substantial variations between study sites (p<0.001). Combining population-based data, we estimated an average of 5.1 drowning deaths per 100 000 persons per year (95% CI 3.8 to 6.3). The proportions of deaths due to drowning were 0.72% (95% CI 0.55 to 0.88) and 0.94% (95% CI 0.09 to 1.78) combining population-based data and hospital-based data, respectively. Males were at greater risk than females, while both under-five children and adults aged 45 years or more were at greater risk than those aged 5-44 years. CONCLUSION: Our estimates of drowning burden are broadly in line with the 2016 Global Burden of Disease and the 2015 WHO Global Health Estimates. While this exercise was useful in raising the burden of drowning in Tanzania with policy makers, planning drowning prevention strategies in this country will require a better understanding of which subpopulations are at high risk

Assessing the Effects of Mosquito Nets on Malaria Mortality Using a Space Time Model: A Case Study of Rufiji and Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites in Rural Tanzania.

Although malaria decline has been observed in most sub-Saharan African countries, the disease still represents a significant public health burden in Tanzania. There are contradictions on the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality. This study presents a Bayesian modelling framework for the analysis of the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality with environmental factors as confounder variables. The analysis used longitudinal data collected in Rufiji and Ifakara Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites for the period of 1999-2011 and 2002-2012, respectively. Bayesian framework modelling approach using integrated nested laplace approximation (INLA) package in R software was used. The space time models were established to assess the effect of ownership of mosquito net on malaria mortality in 58 villages in the study area. The results show that an increase of 10 % in ownership of mosquito nets at village level had an average of 5.2 % decrease inall age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.948, 95 % CI = 0.917, 0.977) in Rufiji HDSS and 12.1 % decrease in all age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.879, 95 % CI = 0.806, 0.959) in Ifakara HDSS. In children under 5 years, results show an average of 5.4 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.946, 95 % CI = 0.909, 0.982) in Rufiji HDSS and 10 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.899, 95 % CI = 0.816, 0.995) in Ifakara HDSS. Model comparison show that model with spatial and temporal random effects was the best fitting model compared to other models without spatial and temporal, and with spatial-temporal interaction effects. This modelling framework is appropriate and provides useful approaches to understanding the effect of mosquito nets for targeting malaria control intervention. Furthermore, ownership of mosquito nets at household showed a significant impact on malaria mortality

Does Proximity to Health Facilities Improve Child Survival? New Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Rural Tanzania

Distance to health facilities is often cited as a major barrier limiting access to care in sub-Saharan and other developing countries. There are however limited data on the causal effects of distance to facilities on child survival. Existing estimates may be biased because 1) most existing data are on distance to health care facilities are cross-sectional, and 2) existing analyses do not account for the endogeneity of residential choices and health services location. This paper uses unique longitudinal data collected in a rural district of Tanzania to test whether enhanced proximity to health services arising from investment in dispensaries contributed to the rapid decline in underfive mortality recently observed in Tanzania. Data on births, deaths, household socioeconomic characteristics and migrations have been recorded every 120 days since 1999 (n≈85,000). Geographic data on the precise location of households and health facilities have also been collected over time. We use multivariate analysis 1) to measure the causal effects of distance to health facilities on child survival and 2) to test for possible interactions between distance to health facilities and socioeconomic characteristics of households (e.g., educational attainment, wealth). Initial results indicate that, from 2000 to 2010, child mortality declined close to 40% (from 110 to 70 per 1000). The distance to the closest health facility remained a strong determinant of child survival, even after adjusting for endogeneity biases. The development of community-based primary health care in rural communities by posting community health assistants, and conducting regular household visits, can improve health outcomes. It can also increase equity by offsetting the detrimental effects of low maternal education, householdpoverty and distance to health facilities

Levels and Correlates of Non-Adherence to WHO Recommended Inter-Birth Intervals in Rufiji, Tanzania.

Poorly spaced pregnancies have been documented worldwide to result in adverse maternal and child health outcomes. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a minimum inter-birth interval of 33 months between two consecutive live births in order to reduce the risk of adverse maternal and child health outcomes. However, birth spacing practices in many developing countries, including Tanzania, remain scantly addressed. METHODS: Longitudinal data collected in the Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) from January 1999 to December 2010 were analyzed to investigate birth spacing practices among women of childbearing age. The outcome variable, non-adherence to the minimum inter-birth interval, constituted all inter-birth intervals <33 months long. Inter-birth intervals >=33 months long were considered to be adherent to the recommendation. Chi-Square was used as a test of association between non-adherence and each of the explanatory variables. Factors affecting non-adherence were identified using a multilevel logistic model. Data analysis was conducted using STATA (11) statistical software. RESULTS: A total of 15,373 inter-birth intervals were recorded from 8,980 women aged 15--49 years in Rufiji district over the follow-up period of 11 years. The median inter-birth interval was 33.4 months. Of the 15,373 inter-birth intervals, 48.4% were below the WHO recommended minimum length of 33 months between two live births. Non-adherence was associated with younger maternal age, low maternal education, multiple births of the preceding pregnancy, non-health facility delivery of the preceding birth, being an in-migrant resident, multi-parity and being married. CONCLUSION: Generally, one in every two inter-birth intervals among 15--49 year-old women in Rufiji district is poorly spaced, with significant variations by socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics of mothers and newborns. Maternal, newborn and child health services should be improved with a special emphasis on community- and health facility-based optimum birth spacing education in order to enhance health outcomes of mothers and their babies, especially in rural settings

Safety of Artemether-Lumefantrine Exposure in First Trimester of Pregnancy: An Observational Cohort.

There is limited data available regarding safety profile of artemisinins in early pregnancy. They are, therefore, not recommended by WHO as a first-line treatment for malaria in first trimester due to associated embryo-foetal toxicity in animal studies. The study assessed birth outcome among pregnant women inadvertently exposed to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) during first trimester in comparison to those of women exposed to other anti-malarial drugs or no drug at all during the same period of pregnancy. Pregnant women with gestational age <20 weeks were recruited from Maternal Health clinics or from monthly house visits (demographic surveillance), and followed prospectively until delivery. 2167 pregnant women were recruited and 1783 (82.3%) completed the study until delivery. 319 (17.9%) used anti-malarials in first trimester, of whom 172 (53.9%) used (AL), 78 (24.4%) quinine, 66 (20.7%) sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and 11 (3.4%) amodiaquine. Quinine exposure in first trimester was associated with an increased risk of miscarriage/stillbirth (OR 2.5; 1.3-5.1) and premature birth (OR 2.6; 1.3-5.3) as opposed to AL with (OR 1.4; 0.8-2.5) for miscarriage/stillbirth and (OR 0.9; 0.5-1.8) for preterm birth. Congenital anomalies were identified in 4 exposure groups namely AL only (1/164[0.6%]), quinine only (1/70[1.4%]), SP (2/66[3.0%]), and non-anti-malarial exposure group (19/1464[1.3%]). Exposure to AL in first trimester was more common than to any other anti-malarial drugs. Quinine exposure was associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes which was not the case following other anti-malarial intake. Since AL and quinine were used according to their availability rather than to disease severity, it is likely that the effect observed was related to the drug and not to the disease itself. Even with this caveat, a change of policy from quinine to AL for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria during the whole pregnancy period could be already envisaged.\u

Pregnancy outcomes after first-trimester treatment with artemisinin derivatives versus non-artemisinin antimalarials: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

Background Malaria in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are a highly effective, first-line treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria, except in the first trimester of pregnancy, when quinine with clindamycin is recommended due to concerns about the potential embryotoxicity of artemisinins. We compared adverse pregnancy outcomes after artemisinin-based treatment (ABT) versus non-ABTs in the first trimester of pregnancy. Methods For this systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Malaria in Pregnancy Library for prospective cohort studies published between Nov 1, 2015, and Dec 21, 2021, containing data on outcomes of pregnancies exposed to ABT and non-ABT in the first trimester. The results of this search were added to those of a previous systematic review that included publications published up until November, 2015. We included pregnancies enrolled before the pregnancy outcome was known. We excluded pregnancies with missing estimated gestational age or exposure information, multiple gestation pregnancies, and if the fetus was confirmed to be unviable before antimalarial treatment. The primary endpoint was adverse pregnancy outcome, defined as a composite of either miscarriage, stillbirth, or major congenital anomalies. A one-stage IPD meta-analysis was done by use of shared-frailty Cox models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42015032371. Findings We identified seven eligible studies that included 12 cohorts. All 12 cohorts contributed IPD, including 34 178 pregnancies, 737 with confirmed first-trimester exposure to ABTs and 1076 with confirmed first-trimester exposure to non-ABTs. Adverse pregnancy outcomes occurred in 42 (5·7%) of 736 ABT-exposed pregnancies compared with 96 (8·9%) of 1074 non-ABT-exposed pregnancies in the first trimester (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0·71, 95% CI 0·49–1·03). Similar results were seen for the individual components of miscarriage (aHR=0·74, 0·47–1·17), stillbirth (aHR=0·71, 0·32–1·57), and major congenital anomalies (aHR=0·60, 0·13–2·87). The risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes was lower with artemether–lumefantrine than with oral quinine in the first trimester of pregnancy (25 [4·8%] of 524 vs 84 [9·2%] of 915; aHR 0·58, 0·36–0·92). Interpretation We found no evidence of embryotoxicity or teratogenicity based on the risk of miscarriage, stillbirth, or major congenital anomalies associated with ABT during the first trimester of pregnancy. Given that treatment with artemether–lumefantrine was associated with fewer adverse pregnancy outcomes than quinine, and because of the known superior tolerability and antimalarial effectiveness of ACTs, artemether–lumefantrine should be considered the preferred treatment for uncomplicated P falciparum malaria in the first trimester. If artemether–lumefantrine is unavailable, other ACTs (except artesunate–sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine) should be preferred to quinine. Continued active pharmacovigilance is warranted