Does nonstationary noise in LIGO and Virgo affect the estimation of H0?

Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron star mergers and their electromagnetic counterparts provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, through the standard-sirens approach. Current methods of determining $H_0$, such as measurements from the early universe and the local distance ladder, are in tension with one another. If gravitational waves are to break this tension a thorough understanding of systematic uncertainty for gravitational-wave observations is required. To accurately estimate the properties of gravitational-wave signals measured by LIGO and Virgo, we need to understand the characteristics of the detectors noise. Non-gaussian transients in the detector data and rapid changes in the instrument, known as non-stationary noise, can both add a systematic uncertainty to inferred results. We investigate how non-stationary noise affects the estimation of the luminosity distance of the source, and therefore of $H_0$. Using a population of 200 simulated binary neutron star signals, we show that non-stationary noise can bias the estimation of the luminosity distance by up to 2.4\%. However, only $\sim$15\% of binary neutron star signals would be affected around their merger time with non-stationary noise at a similar level to that seen in the first half of LIGO-Virgo's third observing run. Comparing the expected bias to other systematic uncertainties, we argue that non-stationary noise in the current generation of detectors will not be a limiting factor in resolving the tension on $H_0$ using standard sirens. Although, evaluating non-stationarity in gravitational-wave data will be crucial to obtain accurate estimates of $H_0$.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P < .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients

Virgo Detector Characterization and Data Quality: results from the O3 run

The Advanced Virgo detector has contributed with its data to the rapid growth of the number of detected gravitational-wave (GW) signals in the past few years, alongside the two Advanced LIGO instruments. First during the last month of the Observation Run 2 (O2) in August 2017 (with, most notably, the compact binary mergers GW170814 and GW170817), and then during the full Observation Run 3 (O3): an 11-months data taking period, between April 2019 and March 2020, that led to the addition of about 80 events to the catalog of transient GW sources maintained by LIGO, Virgo and now KAGRA. These discoveries and the manifold exploitation of the detected waveforms require an accurate characterization of the quality of the data, such as continuous study and monitoring of the detector noise sources. These activities, collectively named {\em detector characterization and data quality} or {\em DetChar}, span the whole workflow of the Virgo data, from the instrument front-end hardware to the final analyses. They are described in details in the following article, with a focus on the results achieved by the Virgo DetChar group during the O3 run. Concurrently, a companion article describes the tools that have been used by the Virgo DetChar group to perform this work.Comment: 57 pages, 18 figures. To be submitted to Class. and Quantum Grav. This is the "Results" part of preprint arXiv:2205.01555 [gr-qc] which has been split into two companion articles: one about the tools and methods, the other about the analyses of the O3 Virgo dat

Virgo Detector Characterization and Data Quality during the O3 run

The Advanced Virgo detector has contributed with its data to the rapid growth of the number of detected gravitational-wave signals in the past few years, alongside the two LIGO instruments. First, during the last month of the Observation Run 2 (O2) in August 2017 (with, most notably, the compact binary mergers GW170814 and GW170817) and then during the full Observation Run 3 (O3): an 11 months data taking period, between April 2019 and March 2020, that led to the addition of about 80 events to the catalog of transient gravitational-wave sources maintained by LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA. These discoveries and the manifold exploitation of the detected waveforms require an accurate characterization of the quality of the data, such as continuous study and monitoring of the detector noise. These activities, collectively named {\em detector characterization} or {\em DetChar}, span the whole workflow of the Virgo data, from the instrument front-end to the final analysis. They are described in details in the following article, with a focus on the associated tools, the results achieved by the Virgo DetChar group during the O3 run and the main prospects for future data-taking periods with an improved detector.Comment: 86 pages, 33 figures. This paper has been divided into two articles which supercede it and have been posted to arXiv on October 2022. Please use these new preprints as references: arXiv:2210.15634 (tools and methods) and arXiv:2210.15633 (results from the O3 run

Virgo Detector Characterization and Data Quality: tools

Detector characterization and data quality studies -- collectively referred to as {\em DetChar} activities in this article -- are paramount to the scientific exploitation of the joint dataset collected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA global network of ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors. They take place during each phase of the operation of the instruments (upgrade, tuning and optimization, data taking), are required at all steps of the dataflow (from data acquisition to the final list of GW events) and operate at various latencies (from near real-time to vet the public alerts to offline analyses). This work requires a wide set of tools which have been developed over the years to fulfill the requirements of the various DetChar studies: data access and bookkeeping; global monitoring of the instruments and of the different steps of the data processing; studies of the global properties of the noise at the detector outputs; identification and follow-up of noise peculiar features (whether they be transient or continuously present in the data); quick processing of the public alerts. The present article reviews all the tools used by the Virgo DetChar group during the third LIGO-Virgo Observation Run (O3, from April 2019 to March 2020), mainly to analyse the Virgo data acquired at EGO. Concurrently, a companion article focuses on the results achieved by the DetChar group during the O3 run using these tools.Comment: 44 pages, 16 figures. To be submitted to Class. and Quantum Grav. This is the "Tools" part of preprint arXiv:2205.01555 [gr-qc] which has been split into two companion articles: one about the tools and methods, the other about the analyses of the O3 Virgo dat

Constraints on the cosmic expansion history from GWTC-3

We use 47 gravitational-wave sources from the Third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3) to estimate the Hubble parameter $H(z)$, including its current value, the Hubble constant $H_0$. Each gravitational-wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and $H(z)$. The source mass distribution displays a peak around $34\, {\rm M_\odot}$, followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with redshift results in a $H(z)$ measurement, yielding $H_0=68^{+12}_{-7} {\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ ($68\%$ credible interval) when combined with the $H_0$ measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the $H_0$ estimate from GWTC-1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of $H_0=68^{+8}_{-6} {\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC-1 result and 20% with respect to recent $H_0$ studies using GWTC-2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about $H_0$) is the well-localized event GW190814