Credit Risk Monte Carlos Simulation Using Simplified Creditmetrics' Model: the joint use of importance sampling and descriptive sampling

Monte Carlo simulation is implemented in some of the main models for estimating portfolio credit risk, such as CreditMetrics, developed by Gupton, Finger and Bhatia (1997). As in any Monte Carlo application, credit risk simulation according to this model produces imprecise estimates. In order to improve precision, simulation sampling techniques other than traditional Simple Random Sampling become indispensable. Importance Sampling (IS) has already been successfully implemented by Glasserman and Li (2005) on a simplified version of CreditMetrics, in which only default risk is considered. This paper tries to improve even more the precision gains obtained by IS over the same simplified CreditMetrics' model. For this purpose, IS is here combined with Descriptive Sampling (DS), another simulation technique which has proved to be a powerful variance reduction procedure. IS combined with DS was successful in obtaining more precise results for credit risk estimates than its standard form.

The absent players : the impact of firm with no trading activity

Este estudo tem como objectivo caracterizar o tipo de empresas que estando admitidas e cotadas em bolsa, apresentam baixos níveis de volume de transação. A literatura que se foca nos mercados de capitais de forma recorrente utiliza o mercado como um todo ou analisa apenas as maiores empresas (normalmente as incluídas nos índices de referência, por exemplo FTSE 100), mas pouca ou nenhuma atenção é dada ao facto de que um número considerável de empresas cotadas não transacciona. O nosso estudo pretende ser exploratório na tentativa de caracterizar estas empresas que estrategicamente optam por estar cotadas incorrendo em levados custos e em acrescidas obrigações legais, sendo que para tal analisaremos as empresas cotadas na London Stock Exchange.This study aims to identify what kind of firms are listed on stock exchange market with a very low volume traded. The literature that focused on financial markets uses the market as a whole or only highlight the largest firms (namely the firms listed in most important indexes, for instance FTSE 100), but no such relevant study are focused on listed companies with zero volume traded. Our study aims to be exploratory, trying to characterize these firms that strategically choose to be listed incurring in huge costs and under exigent regulatory compliance. Our analysis scope is London Stock Exchange listed firms

Data-visualization and new literacies: new methods for video remixes analysis

This article introduces audiovisual data-set, and data-visualization methods developed to analyze video remixes, i.e., Anime Music Videos (AMVs). It mainly focuses on reviewing the methodology that has supported our Ph.D. thesis which aims to integrate a qualitative methodology according to Bakhtin\u27s theories of genre and architectonics, and a quantitative methodology based on media visualization techniques and statistical distributions of formal and stylistic choices. More specifically, it aimed to reflect upon on audiovisual productions belonging to the site http://www.animemusicvideos.org/. Community whose goal is the elaboration and distribution of Japanese animations remixes called Anime Music Videos (AMVs). We propose to integrate an enunciative-discursive perspective, formulated for verbal language with an analysis objective method of multimodal objects. Hence we suggest a mixed research design (quantitative and qualitative) based on statistical distributions and description and analysis of our data visualization techniques, aiming to reveal relationships and patterns in our collection of audiovisual data, so as to provide productive transitions between the concepts proposed by Bakhtin and his Circle, and analysis of editing and video editing tools

Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling

As in any Monte Carlo application, simulation option valuation produces imprecise estimates. In such an application, Descriptive Sampling (DS) has proven to be a powerful Variance Reduction Technique. However, this performance deteriorates as the probability of exercising an option decreases. In the case of out of the money options, the solution is to use Importance Sampling (IS). Following this track, the joint use of IS and DS is deserving of attention. Here, we evaluate and compare the benefits of using standard IS method with the joint use of IS and DS. We also investigate the influence of the problem dimensionality in the variance reduction achieved. Although the combination IS+DS showed gains over the standard IS implementation, the benefits in the case of out-of-the-money options were mainly due to the IS effect. On the other hand, the problem dimensionality did not affect the gains. Possible reasons for such results are discussed.

Neoplasias cutâneas em hospital de referência em Campos dos Goytacazes: integração dos registros e sua interface com a política em saúde

Given its importance and multidimensionality, health plays an essential role in the public policy field. Skin cancer is the most common type of neoplasm found in Brazil and is considered a public health problem. In this regard, this research addresses the issue of skin cancer with a diagnosis of its incidence in the municipality of Campos dos Goytacazes, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, based on the Hospital Cancer Registry (RHC, abbreviation in Portuguese). These records obtained data from all patients seen at a reference hospital (Hospital Escola Álvaro Alvim) who were diagnosed with skin cancer between 2012 and 2017, totaling 656 cases. A descriptive statistical analysis of variables such as age, occupation, tumor location, neighborhood, and gender was used to profile skin cancer patients in the municipality, identifying the sectors of the area where the local population is most affected by the disease, besides any environmental factors that may be related and the most affected race. The results of the study demonstrate that the light-skinned population (69.1%) and the age group over 55 years old (predominantly from 70 to 74 years for basal cell carcinomas and from 80 to 84 years for squamous cell carcinomas) constitute the most affected group by skin cancer. This information should support public policies and campaigns among the population aiming to improve strategies for its prevention and early diagnosis.Dada su importancia y multidimensionalidad, la salud ocupa un lugar destacado en el ámbito de las políticas públicas. El cáncer de piel es el tipo de neoplasia más común que se encuentra en Brasil y se considera un problema de salud pública. En este sentido, esta investigación aborda la temática del cáncer de piel, con un diagnóstico de su incidencia en el municipio de Campos dos Goytacazes - RJ, a través del Registro Hospitalario de Cáncer (RHC). Estos registros obtuvieron datos de todos los pacientes atendidos en un hospital de referencia (Hospital Escola Álvaro Alvim), que tenían un diagnóstico confirmado de cáncer de piel entre 2012 y 2017, totalizando 656 casos. Mediante el análisis estadístico descriptivo de variables como edad, profesión, localización del tumor, barrio y sexo, se pudo trazar un perfil de pacientes afectados por cáncer de piel en el municipio, detectando sectores de la zona donde la población local es más afectada por el cáncer de piel, además de los factores ambientales que pueden estar relacionados y la raza más afectada. Los resultados del estudio muestran que la población de piel clara (69,1%) y el grupo de edad de más de 55 años (con una edad predominante de 70 a 74 años para los carcinomas de células basales y de 80 a 84 años para los carcinomas de células escamosas) constituyen el grupo más afectado por el cáncer de piel. La información obtenida de estos registros podría ayudar en políticas públicas y campañas entre la población con el objetivo de mejorar las estrategias para su prevención y diagnóstico precoz.Given its importance and multidimensionality, health plays an essential role in the public policy field. Skin cancer is the most common type of neoplasm found in Brazil and is considered a public health problem. In this regard, this research addresses the issue of skin cancer with a diagnosis of its incidence in the municipality of Campos dos Goytacazes, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, based on the Hospital Cancer Registry (RHC, abbreviation in Portuguese). These records obtained data from all patients seen at a reference hospital (Hospital Escola Álvaro Alvim) who were diagnosed with skin cancer between 2012 and 2017, totaling 656 cases. A descriptive statistical analysis of variables such as age, occupation, tumor location, neighborhood, and gender was used to profile skin cancer patients in the municipality, identifying the sectors of the area where the local population is most affected by the disease, besides any environmental factors that may be related and the most affected race. The results of the study demonstrate that the light-skinned population (69.1%) and the age group over 55 years old (predominantly from 70 to 74 years for basal cell carcinomas and from 80 to 84 years for squamous cell carcinomas) constitute the most affected group by skin cancer. This information should support public policies and campaigns among the population aiming to improve strategies for its prevention and early diagnosis.Dada sua importância e multidimensionalidade, a saúde ocupa lugar de destaque na área de políticas públicas. O câncer de pele é o tipo de neoplasia mais frequentemente encontrado no Brasil e é considerado um problema de saúde pública. Neste sentido, a presente pesquisa aborda a temática do câncer de pele, sendo realizado um diagnóstico da sua incidência no município de Campos dos Goytacazes – RJ, por meio do Registro Hospitalar de Câncer (RHC). Esses registros obtiveram dados de todos os pacientes atendidos em um hospital de referência (Hospital Escola Álvaro Alvim), que apresentavam diagnóstico confirmado do câncer de pele entre os anos de 2012 e 2017, totalizando 656 casos. Através da análise estatística descritiva de variáveis como idade, profissão, local do tumor, bairro e sexo foi possível traçar um perfil dos pacientes acometidos pelo câncer de pele no município, detectando setores da área onde a população local é mais afetada pela doença, além de fatores ambientais que possam estar relacionados e a raça mais acometida. Os resultados do estudo evidenciam que a população de pele clara (69,1%) e a faixa etária acima de 55 anos de idade (com idade predominante dos 70 a 74 anos para os carcinomas basocelulares e dos 80 a 84 anos para os carcinomas espinocelulares), configuram o grupo mais acometido pelo câncer de pele. As informações obtidas desses registros seriam capazes de auxiliar nas políticas públicas e campanhas junto à população, visando melhorar as estratégias para sua prevenção e diagnóstico precoce

The internationalization of the Brazilian Public Prosecutor's Office : anti-corruption and corporate investments in the 2000s

The success of different categories of legal professionals in building positions of state power in Brazil since the end of the military regime is in line with the legitimation of models of law and international cooperation. This article focuses on the connections between Brazilian legal actors and the international ‘fight against corruption’. By looking at the international connections of Brazil’s Public Prosecutor’s Office (MPF), we aim to show how the promotion of anti-corruption models of law is the result of corporate cooperation strategies. We cite as evidence overseas travel by MPF agents and their connections with the international field in recent decades. We start by analyzing cooperation documents and then attempt to trace the MPF’s pathway towards internationalization during the 2000s

Percutaneous endoscopic versus surgical gastrostomy in patients with benign and malignant diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

To compare the complications and mortality related to gastrostomy procedures performed using surgical and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy techniques, this review covered seven studies. Five of these were retrospective and two were randomized prospective studies. In total, 406 patients were involved, 232 of whom had undergone percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy and 174 of whom had undergone surgical gastrostomy. The analysis was performed using Review Manager. Risk differences were computed using a fixed-effects model and forest and funnel plots. Data on risk differences and 95% confidence intervals were obtained using the Mantel-Haenszel test. There was no difference in major complications in retrospective (95% CI (-0.11 to 0.10)) or randomized (95% CI (-0.07 to 0.05)) studies. Regarding minor complications, no difference was found in retrospective studies (95% CI (-00.17 to 0.09)), whereas a difference was observed in randomized studies (95% CI (-0.25 to -0.02)). Separate analyses of retrospective and randomized studies revealed no differences between the methods in relation to mortality and major complications. Moreover, low levels of minor complications were observed among endoscopic procedures in randomized studies, with no difference observed compared with retrospective studies

Application of RIAM to the environmental impact assessment of hydroelectric installations

This paper evaluates an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) using the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM). It analyses and presents in a structured, friendly and transparent environment the numerous parameters and alternatives of an EIA. It considers all 4 components: physical / chemical, biological / ecological, social / cultural, economic / operational. These are then evaluated using universal criteria common to all impact consideration. Figures and tables made comparisons much easier. This Matrix was applied to the EIA of the future Vale de Madeira Hydroelectric Installation that will be situated on the River Côa of the Douro River Basin in the Municipalities of Pinhel and Figueira de Castelo Rodrigo, North of Portugal. It will be shown that such a project will be positive economically but negative otherwise (as related to the other three components evaluated in RIAM)