Forecasting of meteorological drought using Hidden Markov Model (case study: The upper Blue Nile river basin, Ethiopia)

AbstractAn improved drought management must rely on an accurate monitoring and forecasting of the phenomenon in order to activate appropriate mitigation measures. In this study, several homogenous Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) were developed to forecast droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, at short-medium term. Validation of the developed models was carried out with reference to precipitation series observed in 22 stations located in the upper Blue Nile river basin. The performance of the HMM was measured using various forecast skill criteria. Results indicate that Hidden Markov Model provides a fairly good agreement between observed and forecasted values in terms of the SPI time series on various lead time. Results seem to confirm the reliability of the proposed models to discriminate between events and non-events relatively well, thus suggesting the suitability of the proposed procedure as a tool for drought management and drought early warning

The Obama administration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Exploring the ideational and structural factors

This study discusses the Obama Administration’s Policy toward the Palestinian- Israeli conflict from 2009 to 2017. It is an attempt to explain the change in the Administration’s approach to the peace process, and the reasons for its inability to achieve a breakthrough in resuming the negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis. Deploying the foreign policy analysis, the study explores the main drivers and outcomes of the American policy concerning the conflict and explains its development over the eight years of Obama’s presidency that started with high expectations on resolving the conflict and ended with prevailing disappointment and fear of the end of the peace process itself

Fostering volunteerism among students with learning disabilities: The role of primary schools and challenges

The significance of the study lies in its focus on promoting volunteerism among Students with Learning Disabilities (SLD). The study aimed to provide recommendations that help overcome the challenges faced by primary school role in promoting volunteering among SLD. The study used a mixed-method approach. Personal interviews were conducted with 20 parents of SLD, and a questionnaire was administered to 98 teachers of Learning Disabilities in primary schools in Al-Ahsa Governorate, Saudi Arabia. The study results are that the teacher's role held the highest importance in fostering volunteering among SLD in primary school, followed by the school administration role, and subsequently, the school curriculum, according to parents' Perceptions. There are significant challenges facing the role of elementary schools in promoting volunteer work among SLD, with the most important of these being personal, organizational, and then academic challenges, according to teachers' perspectives. The study does not identify significant differences in these challenges based on the teachers' perspectives, considering gender and years of experience

Integration of Data-Driven Modeling and Stochastic Modeling for Multi-purpose Reservoir Simulation

Water Resources Planning and Managemen

Major autohemotherapy as a treatment modality for alveolar osteitis

Purpose. Alveolar osteitis is the most common post-odontectomy complication. Although blood clot disintegration is known to be the cause of the condition, an agreement is lacking regarding a treatment of choice. The aim of the current study therefore was to evaluate major autohemotherapy as one treatment method. Patients and Methods. A total of 183 patients were categorized into 4 groups (I, II, III, and IV) according to pain severity (mild, moderate, severe, or agonizing, respectively). Major autohemotherapy was performed for all patients by withdrawing 225mL of patient's blood and mixing them with 225mL of Oxygen-Ozone gas (where Ozone concentration was 50µg/mL gas) Results and Discussion. Despite AHT was a high-potency curative treatment for groups I and II, it was palliative for group IV. For group III, it oscillated between being a curative or a palliative treatment with a statistically insignificant difference. Conclusion. AHT might be a recommended treatment for A

The Transmission of the Islamic Tradition in the Early Modern Era: The Life and Writings of Aḥmad Al-Dardīr

This thesis examines the role of tradition and discursive knowledge transmission on the formation of the ‘ulamā’, the learned scholarly class in Islam, and their approach to the articulation of the Islamic disciplines. The basis of this examination is the twelfth/eighteenth century scholar, Aḥmad ibn Muḥammad al-Dardīr, an Egyptian Azharī who wrote highly influential treatises in the disciplines of creedal theology, Mālikī jurisprudence, and taṣawwuf (Sufism). Additionally, he occupied a prominent role in the urban life of Cairo, accredited with several incidents of intercession with the rulers on behalf of the Cairo populace. This thesis argues that a useful framework for evaluating the intellectual contributions of post-classical scholars such as al-Dardīr involves the concept of an Islamic discursive tradition, where al-Dardīr’s specific contributions were aimed towards preserving, upholding, and maintaining the Islamic tradition, including the intellectual “sub-traditions” that came to define it. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to al-Dardīr, the social and intellectual climate of his era, and an overview of his writings. Chapter 2 analyses the educational paradigm that preceded al-Dardīr, and affected his approach to the Islamic disciplines. We then focus our attention to al-Dardīr’s contribution to the Islamic educational paradigm, in the form of taḥqīq (verification). Chapter 3 analyses al-Dardīr’s methodology in the synthesis of the rational and mystical approaches to knowledge located within the Islamic disciplines of creedal theology and Sufism. Chapter 4 analyses al-Dardīr’s to the Mālikī fiqh tradition, specifically his methodology of tarjīḥ (weighing of juristic evidence between different narrations). Chapter 5 examines his societal roles, and the influence of tradition on his relationships with the ruling elite, the ‘ulamā’ class, and the masses. The thesis ends with a conclusion that summarises the results of all of the above

Mapping of Meteorological Drought Patterns using SPI and Different Interpolation Methods

Water Resources Planning and Managemen

Physico-chemical behaviors of shale/fluid/solute interaction in geo-environmental and geo-engineering applications.

This dissertation examines the rich and complex physical-mechanical behaviors exhibited by shales when exposed to differing solutions over time, temperature, chemical, and stress conditions. Using several unique experimental designs and numerical modeling, this study advances the level of understanding of time dependent shale behavior arising from changes in clay mineral structure and crystalline phase.The flux of water and ions over time due to semi-permeable membrane properties of shale and very fine-grained material has been numerically modeled. The purposes of this model are to predict the flux of fluid and ions through natural geological fine-grained and clay-rich materials over time and to predict the effect of this flux on long-term shale membrane behaviors. The required input parameters for the model, including water activity of both interfacial chemical fluid and the pore-fluid of the membrane, membrane properties (reflection coefficient, porosity, hydraulic conductivity, mineral compressibility, diffusion processes), and temperature and pressure conditions, were determined by laboratory work on Pierre Shale using High-Temperature High-Pressure (HTHP) Shale Apparatus. Results of this model reveal that, due to the flux of solute through the semi-permeable membrane, the shale's pore fluid activity will reduce through time, leading to a reduction in the ideality of the membrane. Given enough time (depending on the activity of the chemical used and the membrane thickness and permeability), the chemical and hydraulic difference across the membrane will disappear, leading to a diminishing of the osmotic fluid flux. This model can help in correlating and representing the semi-permeable membrane behavior of fine-grained and clay-rocks, and enhance understanding of the relevant processes. The implications for geo-environmental exploitation of the membrane properties of shales are discussed in light of these results. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)Artificial dewatering of shales is a method to eliminate shale related problems such as wellbore stability, swelling, and soil instability that produces landslides. In this dissertation, the semi-permeable membrane behavior of shale, permitting osmotic flux of fluid to the partial exclusion of ions, has been studied as a means to dewater shales exposed to chemical solutions with ion activities less than that of the in situ shale pore fluid