Modeling the Effects of Duration and Size of the Control Zones on the Consequences of a Hypothetical African Swine Fever Epidemic in Denmark

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease. The disease is endemic in certain regions in Eastern Europe constituting a risk of ASF spread toward Western Europe. Therefore, as part of contingency planning, it is important to continuously explore strategies that can effectively control an epidemic of ASF. A previously published and well documented simulation model for ASF virus spread between herds was used to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of the duration and size of the control zones around affected herds. In the current study, scenarios were run, where the duration of the protection and surveillance zones were reduced from 50 and 45 days to 35 and 25 days or to 35 and 25 days, respectively. These scenarios were run with or without enlargement of the surveillance zone around detected herds from 10 to 15 km. The scenarios were also run with only clinical or clinical and serological surveillance of herds within the zones. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on influential input parameters in the model. The model predicts that reducing the duration of the protection and surveillance zones has no impact on the epidemiological consequences of the epidemics, while it may result in a substantial reduction in the total economic losses. In addition, the model predicts that increasing the size of the surveillance zone from 10 to 15 km may reduce both the epidemic duration and the total economic losses, in case of large epidemics. The ranking of the control strategies by the total costs of the epidemics was not influenced by changes of input parameters in the sensitivity analyses

Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Preparedness planning for a veterinary crisis is important to be fast and effective in the eradication of disease. For countries with a large export of animals and animal products, each extra day in an epidemic will cost millions of Euros due to the closure of export markets. This is important for the Danish husbandry industry, especially the swine industry, which had an export of €4.4 billion in 2012. The purposes of this project were to (1) develop an iterative tool with the aim of estimating the resources needed during an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Denmark, (2) identify areas, which can delay the control of the disease. The tool developed should easily be updated, when knowledge is gained from other veterinary crises or during an outbreak of FMD. The stochastic simulation model DTU-DADS was used to simulate spread of FMD in Denmark. For each task occurring during an epidemic of FMD, the time and personnel needed per herd was estimated by a working group with expertise in contingency and crisis management. By combining this information, an iterative model was created to calculate the needed personnel on a daily basis during the epidemic. The needed personnel was predicted to peak within the first week with a requirement of approximately 123 (65–175) veterinarians, 33 (23–64) technicians, and 36 (26–49) administrative staff on day 2, while the personnel needed in the Danish Emergency Management Agency (responsible for the hygiene barrier and initial cleaning and disinfection of the farm) was predicted to be 174 (58–464), mostly recruits. The time needed for surveillance visits was predicted to be the most influential factor in the calculations. Based on results from a stochastic simulation model, it was possible to create an iterative model to estimate the requirements for personnel during an FMD outbreak in Denmark. The model can easily be adjusted, when new information on resources appears from management of other crisis or from new model runs

The autophagy protein Atg7 is essential for hematopoietic stem cell maintenance.

The role of autophagy, a lysosomal degradation pathway which prevents cellular damage, in the maintenance of adult mouse hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) remains unknown. Although normal HSCs sustain life-long hematopoiesis, malignant transformation of HSCs leads to leukemia. Therefore, mechanisms protecting HSCs from cellular damage are essential to prevent hematopoietic malignancies. In this study, we crippled autophagy in HSCs by conditionally deleting the essential autophagy gene Atg7 in the hematopoietic system. This resulted in the loss of normal HSC functions, a severe myeloproliferation, and death of the mice within weeks. The hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell compartment displayed an accumulation of mitochondria and reactive oxygen species, as well as increased proliferation and DNA damage. HSCs within the Lin(-)Sca-1(+)c-Kit(+) (LSK) compartment were significantly reduced. Although the overall LSK compartment was expanded, Atg7-deficient LSK cells failed to reconstitute the hematopoietic system of lethally irradiated mice. Consistent with loss of HSC functions, the production of both lymphoid and myeloid progenitors was impaired in the absence of Atg7. Collectively, these data show that Atg7 is an essential regulator of adult HSC maintenance

The Computational 2D Materials Database: High-Throughput Modeling and Discovery of Atomically Thin Crystals

We introduce the Computational 2D Materials Database (C2DB), which organises a variety of structural, thermodynamic, elastic, electronic, magnetic, and optical properties of around 1500 two-dimensional materials distributed over more than 30 different crystal structures. Material properties are systematically calculated by state-of-the art density functional theory and many-body perturbation theory (G$_0\!$W\!_0 and the Bethe-Salpeter Equation for $\sim$200 materials) following a semi-automated workflow for maximal consistency and transparency. The C2DB is fully open and can be browsed online or downloaded in its entirety. In this paper, we describe the workflow behind the database, present an overview of the properties and materials currently available, and explore trends and correlations in the data. Moreover, we identify a large number of new potentially synthesisable 2D materials with interesting properties targeting applications within spintronics, (opto-)electronics, and plasmonics. The C2DB offers a comprehensive and easily accessible overview of the rapidly expanding family of 2D materials and forms an ideal platform for computational modeling and design of new 2D materials and van der Waals heterostructures.Comment: Add journal reference and DOI; Minor updates to figures and wordin

Autophagy limits proliferation and glycolytic metabolism in acute myeloid leukemia.

Decreased autophagy contributes to malignancies, however it is unclear how autophagy impacts on tumour growth. Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an ideal model to address this as (i) patient samples are easily accessible, (ii) the hematopoietic stem and progenitor population (HSPC) where transformation occurs is well characterized, and (iii) loss of the key autophagy gene Atg7 in hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) leads to a lethal pre-leukemic phenotype in mice. Here we demonstrate that loss of Atg5 results in an identical HSPC phenotype as loss of Atg7, confirming a general role for autophagy in HSPC regulation. Compared to more committed/mature hematopoietic cells, healthy human and mouse HSCs displayed enhanced basal autophagic flux, limiting mitochondrial damage and reactive oxygen species in this long-lived population. Taken together, with our previous findings these data are compatible with autophagy limiting leukemic transformation. In line with this, autophagy gene losses are found within chromosomal regions that are commonly deleted in human AML. Moreover, human AML blasts showed reduced expression of autophagy genes, and displayed decreased autophagic flux with accumulation of unhealthy mitochondria indicating that deficient autophagy may be beneficial to human AML. Crucially, heterozygous loss of autophagy in an MLL-ENL model of AML led to increased proliferation in vitro, a glycolytic shift, and more aggressive leukemias in vivo. With autophagy gene losses also identified in multiple other malignancies, these findings point to low autophagy providing a general advantage for tumour growth

Genome-wide association analysis of more than 120,000 individuals identifies 15 new susceptibility loci for breast cancer.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and large-scale replication studies have identified common variants in 79 loci associated with breast cancer, explaining ∼14% of the familial risk of the disease. To identify new susceptibility loci, we performed a meta-analysis of 11 GWAS, comprising 15,748 breast cancer cases and 18,084 controls together with 46,785 cases and 42,892 controls from 41 studies genotyped on a 211,155-marker custom array (iCOGS). Analyses were restricted to women of European ancestry. We generated genotypes for more than 11 million SNPs by imputation using the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel, and we identified 15 new loci associated with breast cancer at P < 5 × 10(-8). Combining association analysis with ChIP-seq chromatin binding data in mammary cell lines and ChIA-PET chromatin interaction data from ENCODE, we identified likely target genes in two regions: SETBP1 at 18q12.3 and RNF115 and PDZK1 at 1q21.1. One association appears to be driven by an amino acid substitution encoded in EXO1.BCAC is funded by Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A12014) and by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS). Meetings of the BCAC have been funded by the European Union COST programme (BM0606). Genotyping on the iCOGS array was funded by the European Union (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10710, C8197/A16565), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer program and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade of Quebec, grant PSR-SIIRI-701. Combination of the GWAS data was supported in part by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative, grant 1 U19 CA148065-01 (DRIVE, part of the GAME-ON initiative). For a full description of funding and acknowledgments, see the Supplementary Note.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.324