The PEPP : how to bridge the current gap in european pension schemes

Mestrado Bolonha em Actuarial ScienceThe European Union is facing an ageing society. The sustainability of the social security systems is at risk in a number of countries, the pension coverage is frequently low and there is a high percentage of poverty amongst older people. These reasons, associated to the recent creation of a new personal pension product, the Pan-European Personal Pension Product (PEPP), motivated this research. In fact, the main objective of our study is to «dissect» this (still unknown) product, that can make a difference for people to enjoy their retirement years more securely. PEPP is an innovative product that aims to challenge the status quo of supplementary pension vehicles in the EU, which experts have described as complex, fragmented and often very costly. Differing from the current Portuguese retirement saving plan (PPR) in some important aspects, such as portability, PEPP allows its customers to keep saving towards their pensions, even in the event of moving to another Member State of the European Union. In addition, the study aims to perceive whether the Portuguese company where the internship took place, CA Vida – Companhia de Seguros, would profit from marketing this new product, considering its typical customer and a profit testing carried out on the PPR product it currently offers. It would have been interesting to perform the same test for the PEPP and compare results, however there is still no statistical data on the latter, as it is not yet on the market. Nevertheless, a few conclusions resulted from the work and the internship, as a whole.A população da União Europeia está a envelhecer. A sustentabilidade dos sistemas de segurança social está em risco em vários países, a cobertura das pensões é frequentemente baixa e existe uma elevada percentagem de pobreza entre os idosos. Tais razões, associadas à recente criação de um novo produto de pensões pessoais, o Produto Individual de Reforma Pan-Europeu (PEPP), motivaram esta investigação. De facto, o principal objetivo do nosso estudo é «dissecar» este produto (ainda desconhecido), que pode fazer a diferença para que as pessoas possam usufruir dos anos de reforma com mais segurança. O PEPP é um produto inovador que visa combater o panorama atual dos veículos de previdência complementar na UE, que os especialistas descreveram como sendo complexo, fragmentado e frequentemente muito caro. Diferencia-se do atual plano de poupança reforma (PPR) português em alguns aspetos importantes, nomeadamente a portabilidade, pois o PEPP permite aos aderentes continuarem a poupar, mesmo mudando de residência para outro Estado-Membro da União Europeia. Adicionalmente, o presente estudo visa analisar se a empresa portuguesa CA Vida - Companhia de Seguros, onde o estágio se realizou, lucraria com a comercialização deste novo produto. Para isso, considerou-se o seu cliente típico e realizou-se um exercício de profit testing aplicado ao PPR que comercializa, com hipóteses que o aproximariam de um possível PEPP. Teria sido interessante comparar os resultados com os de um mesmo teste realizado para o PEPP propriamente dito, porém ainda não há dados estatísticos para isso. Ainda assim, algumas conclusões resultaram do trabalho e do estágio, no seu conjunto.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Internet gambling : the effects of colours and sounds on decision making

Internet gambling is a very popular way of gambling. People can gamble anytime and everywhere, at home, at their job, in a public library and 24 hours a day, with only a device connected to the internet. With this new type of gambling some questions emerge. How different is gambling online and gambling in the traditional houses? How different are the structural characteristics frames of those two distinct forms of gambling? Having that in mind, we investigate the effects of two structural characteristics – colour and sound – on gamblers behavior. We found that the colour effect seems to increase the psychological salience of losses in online gambling and this triggers in the gambler an attempt to recover previous losses

Being a choice architect in project management: the Galp energy example

In a world where managing projects is a difficult task that requires several skills to succeed, several authors studied ways to prevent a project from deviation of its desired final outcome. This works intends to study the Choice Architecture tools presented in the book ―Nudge‖, through the development of an internal project at GALP energy, to present some key points to assess before its development, related with the need to manage the environment in which the stakeholders will work on the project. The main idea consists in preventing some behaviors and decisions that could lead the project development away from a desired outcome. Managing that environment where the choices are made is known as being a Choice Architect. To begin, this work will focus in knowing the company GALP energy, and where specifically the project progress. Once the global environment understood, the main project objective is unveiled, explaining the problem to be solved, the research done to solve it and how can the choice architecture be applied. Afterward, a specific study is presented on the way the choice architecture contributed for the final solution, justifying the importance on knowing how the brain work, and how the decision biases and heuristics can contribute for the choice architecture successful influence on the elaboration and protection of a project desired solution. To conclude, the project final result and the experience obtained from this work are explained justifying the reason that made this project to be considered a success by several persons. The reason of success is given in the end by the key clients and persons involved in the process

Assist-as-needed EMG-based control strategy for wearable powered assistive devices

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Eletrónica Médica)Robotic-based gait rehabilitation and assistance using Wearable Powered Assistive Devices (WPADs), such as orthosis and exoskeletons, has been growing in the rehabilitation area to recover and augment the motor function of neurologically impaired subjects. These WPADs should provide a personalized assistance, since physical condition and muscular fatigue modify from patient to patient. In this field, electromyography (EMG) signals have been used to control WPADs given their ability to infer the user’s motion intention. However, in cases of motor disability conditions, EMG signals present lower magnitudes when compared to EMG signals under healthy conditions. Thus, the use of WPADs managed by EMG signals may not have potential to provide the assistance that the patient requires. The main goal of this dissertation aims the development of an Assisted-As-Needed (AAN) EMG-based control strategy for a future insertion in a Smart Active Orthotic System (SmartOs). To achieve this goal, the following elements were developed and validated: (i) an EMG system to acquire muscle activity signals from the most relevant muscles during the motion of the ankle joint; (ii) machine learning-based tool for ankle joint torque estimation to serve as reference in the AAN EMG-based control strategy; and (iii) a tool for real EMG-based torque estimation using Tibialis Anterior (TA) and Gastrocnemius Lateralis (GASL) muscles and real ankle joint angles. EMG system showed satisfactory pattern correlations with a commercial system. The reference ankle joint torque was generated based on predicted reference ankle joint kinematics, walking speed information (from 1 to 4 km/h) and anthropometric data (body height from 1.51 m to 1.83 m and body mass from 52.0 kg to 83.7 kg), using five machine learning algorithms: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). CNN provided the best performance, predicting the reference ankle joint torque with fitting curves ranging from 74.7 to 89.8 % and Normalized Root Mean Square Errors (NRMSEs) between 3.16 and 8.02 %. EMG-based torque estimation beneficiates of a higher number of muscles, since EMG data from TA and GASL are not enough to estimate the real ankle joint torque.A assistência e reabilitação robótica usando dispositivos de assistência ativos vestíveis (WPADs), como ortóteses e exosqueletos, tem crescido na área da reabilitação com o fim de recuperar e aumentar a função motora de sujeitos com alterações neurológicas. Estes dispositivos devem fornecer uma assistência personalizada, uma vez que a condição física e a fadiga muscular variam de paciente para paciente. Nesta área, sinais de eletromiografia (EMG) têm sido usados para controlar WPADs, dada a sua capacidade de inferir a intenção de movimento do utilizador. Contudo, em casos de deficiência motora, os sinais de EMG apresentam menor amplitude quando comparados com sinais de EMG em condições saudáveis e, portanto, o uso de WPADs geridos por sinais de EMG pode não oferecer a assistência que o paciente necessita. O principal objetivo desta dissertação visa o desenvolvimento de uma estratégia de controlo baseada em EMG capaz de fornecer assistência quando necessário, para futura integração num sistema ortótico ativo e inteligente (SmartOs). Para atingir este objetivo foram desenvolvidos e validados os seguintes elementos: (i) sistema de EMG para adquirir sinais de atividade muscular dos músculos mais relevantes no movimento da articulação do tornozelo; (ii) ferramenta de machine learning para estimação do binário da articulação do tornozelo para servir como referência na estratégia de controlo; e (iii) ferramenta de estimação do binário real do tornozelo considerando sinais de EMG dos músculos Tibialis Anterior (TA) e Gastrocnemius Lateralis (GASL) e ângulo real do tornozelo. O sistema de EMG apresentou correlações satisfatórias com um sistema comercial. O binário de referência para o tornozelo foi gerado com base no ângulo de referência da mesma articulação, velocidade de marcha (de 1 até 4 km/h) e dados antropométricos (alturas de 1.51 m até 1.83 e massas de 52.0 kg até 83.7 kg), usando cinco algoritmos de machine learning: Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, Long-Short Term Memory e Convolutional Neural Network. CNN apresentou a melhor performance, prevendo binários de referência do tornozelo com um fit entre 74.7 e 89.8 % e Normalized Root Mean Square Errors (NRMSE) entre 3.16 e 8.02 %. A estimativa do torque com base em sinais de EMG requer a inclusão de um maior número de músculos, uma vez que sinais de EMG dos músculos TA e GASL não foram suficientes

Comparative study of the prevalence, clinical features, sensitisation profiles and risk factors for bronchial asthma between elderly and young adults in Cova da Beira

Background: Bronchial asthma is one of the most common allergic diseases worldwide. Very few studies have analysed whether the prevalence of asthma decreases with age. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to compare the prevalence, pattern of aeroallergen sensitization and clinical features of bronchial asthma between elderly and young adults. In addition, we also wanted to analyse possible risk factors for the development of asthma. Methods: This study followed a cross-sectional design. A standardised allergy and asthma questionnaire and skin prick tests (SPT) were carried out in all volunteers. The study population included two groups of individuals: elderly (aged 65 years and older) and young adults (aged between 18-35 years) from Beira Interior. The sample was selected by simple randomization, after calculating a confidence interval of 95% and an estimated error below 5%. Statistical analysis was carried out using Chi-square tests, Mann-Whitney U test, univariate regression analysis, binary logistic regression analysis and Odds Ratio. A p value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. All patients signed a written informed consent and the study was approved by the Regional Health Authority Ethics Committee. Results: A total sample of 1460 volunteers was included. Thus far, we have analyzed a total of 27.6% of elderly volunteers in the Health Care Centre (median age = 73 years; 41.5% males) and 14.1% of the young group (median age = 28 years; 44.2% males). A short questionnaire was applied by telephone to 11% of the total sample. We found significant differences in the prevalence of bronchial asthma between elderly and young adults (19.7% vs 29.4%, respectively; p=0.02; Chi-square test). In addition, the prevalence of atopic bronchial asthma was also significantly lower in elderly than in young adult patients (32.1% vs 57.1%, respectively; p=0.02, Chi-square test). Both groups were mostly sensitised to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and Dermatophagoides farinae. Significant differences were found in terms of sensitisation to grass pollens amongst elderly and young patients (11.8% vs 70.8%, respectively; p=0.0006, Chi-square test). The majority of the asthmatic patients were sensitised to more than one allergen. Finally, differences were observed in terms of risk factors for bronchial asthma between both groups, with gender as a significant risk factor in elderly patients and concomitant rhinitis in young patients. The presence of rhinitis augmented the risk of having asthma 3.2 times, in the group of young adults.Introdução: A asma brônquica é uma das doenças mais comuns a nível mundial. Poucos estudos analisaram se a sua prevalência diminui com a idade. Assim sendo, o principal objectivo deste estudo foi comparar a prevalência, perfil de sensibilização, características clínicas e possíveis factores de risco para o desenvolvimento da asma em idosos e adultos jovens. Métodos: Estudo transversal que implicou a realização de questionário padrão sobre alergia e asma, bem como realização de testes cutâneos de alergia (TCA) a todos os voluntários. A população do estudo abrangeu dois grupos de indivíduos: idosos (com idade igual ou superior a 65 anos de idade) e adultos jovens (com idades compreendidas entre 18 e 35 anos) da Beira Interior. A amostra foi calculada através de randomização simples. A análise estatística consistiu na aplicação dos testes de Qui-quadrado, MannWhitney U, análise de regressão univariável, análise de regressão logística binária e Odds Ratio. Um valor de p abaixo de 0,05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo. Todos os voluntários que participaram nesta investigação assinaram consentimento informado e o estudo foi aprovado pelo Comité de Ética da Autoridade Regional de Saúde. Resultados: A população do estudo consistiu em 1460 voluntários. Contudo, até ao momento, apenas analisámos um total de 27,6% de idosos no centro de saúde (idade média = 73 anos; 41,5% sexo masculino) e 14,1% do grupo de jovens (idade média 28; 44,2% sexo masculino). Foi aplicado um questionário simples por telefone a 11% do total da amostra. Encontrámos diferenças significativas relativas à prevalência da asma entre idosos e adultos jovens (19,7% vs 29,4%, respectivamente; p = 0,02; teste do Quiquadrado). Para além disto, a prevalência de asma brônquica atópica foi significativamente menor em idosos que em adultos jovens (32,1% vs 57,1%, respectivamente p=0,02). Ambos os grupos de doentes asmáticos demonstraram elevada sensibilização para Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus e Dermatophagoides farinae. Encontrámos diferenças significativas na sensibilização dos idosos e jovens para pólenes de ervas (11,8% vs 70,8%, respectivamente; p=0,0006, teste do Qui-quadrado). A maioria dos doentes asmáticos estava sensibilizada a mais de um alergéneo. Finalmente, foram constatadas diferenças relativamente aos factores de risco para desenvolvimento de asma nos diferentes grupos, sendo o sexo significativo no caso dos idosos e a concomitância de rinite nos jovens. A presença de rinite aumentou em 3,2 vezes a probabilidade de desenvolver asma nos adultos jovens

Optimal Interest Rate Rules in Inflation Targeting Frameworks

This work describes the main characteristics of an inflation targeting regime and derives the optimal solution for interest rates according to an original methodology for two models based on the Phillips and IS curves containing general exogenous variables and a complete loss-function.

Clustering of extreme events created by multiple correlated maxima

We consider stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating an observable function along the orbits of the system. The novelty is that we will consider observables achieving a global maximum value (possible infinite) at multiple points with special emphasis for the case where these maximal points are correlated or bound by belonging to the same orbit of a certain chosen point. These multiple correlated maxima can be seen as a new mechanism creating clustering. We recall that clustering was intimately connected with periodicity when the maximum was achieved at a single point. We will study this mechanism for creating clustering and will address the existence of limiting Extreme Value Laws, the repercussions on the value of the Extremal Index, the impact on the limit of Rare Events Points Processes, the influence on clustering patterns and the competition of domains of attraction. We also consider briefly and for comparison purposes multiple uncorrelated maxima. The systems considered include expanding maps of the interval such as Rychlik maps but also maps with an indifferent fixed point such as Manneville-Pommeau maps

r-filters: a Hodrick-Prescott Filter Generalization

A two-parameter family of filters is proposed in which the HP filter is considered as the lowest order member. While the HP filter converges to linear time trend as the smoothing factor grows, the higher order members of the proposed family converge to higher order polynomial time trends. The filter order - the new parameter introduced - allows to set the filter selectivity. Furthermore, two different methods to implement these filters are presented.