CONCENTRAÇÃO REGIONAL DO VALOR BRUTO DE PRODUÇÃO DO PINHÃO NO PARANÁ

This study analyzed the concentration of the Production Gross Value (GDP) of the pinion in the state of Paraná, in the period 1995 - 2010. The regional concentration was measured by the concentration ratio, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and the Gini index. He noted that GDP of the pinion in Paraná grew at an annual rate of 16.52% pa in the period analyzed. The regional concentration of GDP pinion in Paraná is in the Centro Sul mesoregion, Guarapuava microregion, of the Turvo and Pinhão cities and mesoregion Sudeste, microregion União da Vitória, General Carneiro city. According to Bain classifications, the concentration ratio was high to low, at the municipal level. Prevailing low concentration and microregion level concentration prevalence was very high to high. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index showed downward trends in the concentration in mesoregion levels, microregional and municipal. The Gini index showed high levels of inequality at the local (GMunic) level when compared to the Paraná mesoregions (GMeso).Este estudo analisou a concentração do Valor Bruto de Produção (VBP) do pinhão no estado do Paraná, no período 1995 - 2010. A concentração regional foi mensurada por meio da Razão de Concentração, do Índice de Herfindahl-Hirschman e do Índice de Gini. Observou que o VBP do pinhão no Paraná cresceu a uma taxa anual de 16,52% a.a. no período analisado. A concentração regional do VBP pinhão está na mesorregião Centro-sul, microrregião de Guarapuava, municípios de Turvo e Pinhão e na mesorregião Sudeste, microrregião de União da Vitória, município de General Carneiro. Segundo a classificação de Bain, em nível municipal a razão de concentração foi de alta para baixa, prevalecendo concentração baixa e em nível microrregional a predominância foi de muito alta a alta. O índice de Herfindahl-Hirschman apresentou tendências de queda na concentração nos níveis mesorregional, microrregional e municipal. O índice de Gini mostrou maior desigualdade em nível municipal quando comparado com as mesorregiões do Paraná

Analysis of Biomass-fired Boilers in a Polygeneration System for a Hospital

This study evaluates the types of biomass that can be used in boilers for the production of steam and hot water for the Lauro Wanderley University Hospital located in the city of João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil, using average cost of production and business model analysis (Business Model Canvas). The study was conducted to subsidize a system for the optimization of the energy resources to be adopted by the hospital, as the design of a product or service production system can identify opportunities to reduce costs and environmental damage. The energy demand of the hospital was surveyed. Only firewood, sugarcane bagasse and pellets were considered in the analysis, as these are the types of biomass allowed in the specified boiler. The results showed that the pellets were the costliest resource, whereas firewood exhibited the best results considering the average cost of production and the business model. This information supports more consistently the adequate inclusion of this resource in the hospital superstructure and, consequently, the optimization of the polygeneration system, allowing clearer verification of decreased costs and environmental impacts

Análise do comportamento temporal dos preços da borracha natural no mercado internacional

This work analyzed the behavior of natural rubber prices in the international market from January 1982 to December 2006 in function of its aggregated demand and supply, pointing out the main producing and consuming countries. Specifically, the research studied the evolution of prices and of the marketed quantum of natural rubber in the international market. It was characterized,  identified, estimated and analyzed models for the real monthly prices series of raw rubber RSS 1 (US$/t), and the accuracy of the estimated models for forecasting prices of this commodity was tested from Jan/2006 to Dez/2006. The studied models were of ARIMA-ARCH class. The main results were:  the real natural rubber prices presented decreasing tendency in the period being studied; the ARIMA family estimated model indicating the existence of heteroskedasticity in the series, making it necessary to identify, to estimate and to analyze the models of ARCH family; the model which best adjusted the returns of the price series of the raw rubber RSS1 was AR(1)-GARCH(1,1); the models of the ARIMA family didn't satisfy the prognosis conditions of the series being studied; the AIR (1)-GARCH (1,1) model was accurate for forecasting rubber prices.Este trabalho analisou o comportamento dos preços da borracha natural no mercado internacional, no período de janeiro de 1982 a dezembro de 2006, em função de sua oferta e demanda agregadas, evidenciando os principais países produtores e consumidores. Especificamente a pesquisa analisou a evolução dos preços e do quantum comercializado da borracha natural no mercado internacional. Caracterizou, identificou, estimou e analisou modelos para a série de preços reais mensais da borracha crua RSS 1 (US$/t) e; testou a precisão dos modelos estimados na previsão dos preços dessa commodity, no período de jan./2006 a dez./2006. Os modelos estudados foram das classes ARIMA-ARCH. Os principais resultados encontrados foram: 0s preços reais da borracha natural, no período estudado, apresentam tendência decrescente; A identificação e estimação dos modelos da família ARIMA mostraram a existência de heteroscedasticidade na série estudada e a necessidade de identificar, estimar e analisar os modelos da família ARCH; O modelo que melhor ajustou os retornos da série de preços da borracha crua RSS 1 foi o AR(1) para um GARCH(1,1); Os modelos da família ARIMA não satisfizeram as condições de previsão da série estudada; o modelo AR (1)-GARCH (1,1) se mostrou preciso para a realização de prognoses do preço da borracha

Concentração das exportações mundiais de produtos florestais

http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509812353This study analyzed the degree of concentration in worldwide exports of forest products in the period rangingfrom 1961 to 2008. The data used are available at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO). The concentration was determined by the concentration ratio [HR (k)], the Herfindahl-HirschmanIndex (HHI), Theil Entropy Index (E) and the Gini index (G). The main conclusions were: The aggregateBrazilian share in the world exports of forest products is increasing over time; the most important sectors inthe aggregate world exports of forest products, in decreasing order, were pulp, lumber, paper and cardboard,wooden panels, saw and fire wood. According to Bain, the concentration ratio of the four and eight largestexporters of forest products is moderately low; the HHI and Theil Entropy (E) show a reduction in theconcentration of world exports of forest products and greater competition among the countries that sell suchproducts; the Gini index indicates that despite the increase in export of forest products over the period ofanalysis, a smaller number of competitors concentrate increasingly larger shares of international exports of these products; summary indices (HHI, E and G) indicated that increased competition has not led to a moreequitable distribution of forest products so as to bring down inequalities and concentration of profits in thesector; despite the downward trend in CR (4) and CR (8), there is an increase in G, probably because theeconomies of scale in the international trade have been held by few competitors; caution is recommendedin the analysis of summary indices (HHI, E and G) which had better be checked jointly with the partialindices [CR (k)] in order to avoid wrong conclusions; countries with a significant share in total exports, suchas Brazil, should seek business strategies to retain competitive advantages, especially those arising fromeconomies of scale.http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509812353Este trabalho analisou o grau de concentração das exportações mundiais de produtos florestais no período 1961 - 2008. Os dados utilizados estão disponíveis na Organização das Nações Unidas para Agricultura e Alimento. O grau de concentração foi determinado por meio da Razão de Concentração [CR(k)], Índice de Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI), Índice de Entropia de Theil (E) e Índice de Gini (G). As principais conclusões foram: A participação brasileira nas exportações mundiais no agregado de produtos florestais é crescente ao longo do tempo; os setores mais significativos do agregado das exportações mundiais de produtos florestais, em ordem decrescente, foram o de celulose, madeira serrada, papel e papelão, painéis de madeira, madeira para fins industriais e energia. Segundo a classificação de Bain, a Razão de Concentração dos quatro e oito maiores exportadores de produtos florestais é moderadamente baixa; os indicadores HHI e de Entropia de Theil (E) mostram redução na concentração das exportações mundiais de produtos florestais e maior competição entre os países que comercializam tais produtos; o Índice de Gini indica que, apesar do aumento de exportadores de produtos florestais ao longo do período de análise, um número reduzido de competidores concentra frações cada vez maiores das exportações internacionais desses produtos; os índices sumários (HHI, E e G) indicaram que o aumento da competição e da concorrência não tem se traduzido em uma distribuição mais equitativa das exportações de produtos florestais, que levasse à redução das desigualdades e da concentração dos ganhos do setor; apesar da tendência decrescente dos CR(4) e CR(8), há uma elevação de G, isso porque os ganhos de escala do comércio internacional têm sido apropriado por poucos concorrentes; é recomendada cautela na análise dos índices sumários (HHI, E e G), que devem ser examinados em conjunto com os índices parciais [CR(k)] para não tirar conclusões errôneas; os países com expressiva participação na pauta de exportações, como o Brasil, devem buscar estratégias comerciais para reter as vantagens competitivas conquistadas, principalmente aquelas advindas do ganho de escala

CONCENTRATION OF WORLD EXPORTS OF FOREST PRODUCTS

Este trabalho analisou o grau de concentra\ue7\ue3o das exporta\ue7\uf5es mundiais de produtos florestais no per\uedodo 1961 - 2008. Os dados utilizados est\ue3o dispon\uedveis na Organiza\ue7\ue3o das Na\ue7\uf5es Unidas para Agricultura e Alimento. O grau de concentra\ue7\ue3o foi determinado por meio da Raz\ue3o de Concentra\ue7\ue3o [CR(k)], \ucdndice de Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI), \ucdndice de Entropia de Theil (E) e \ucdndice de Gini (G). As principais conclus\uf5es foram: A participa\ue7\ue3o brasileira nas exporta\ue7\uf5es mundiais no agregado de produtos florestais \ue9 crescente ao longo do tempo; os setores mais significativos do agregado das exporta\ue7\uf5es mundiais de produtos florestais, em ordem decrescente, foram o de celulose, madeira serrada, papel e papel\ue3o, pain\ue9is de madeira, madeira para fins industriais e energia. Segundo a classifica\ue7\ue3o de Bain, a Raz\ue3o de Concentra\ue7\ue3o dos quatro e oito maiores exportadores de produtos florestais \ue9 moderadamente baixa; os indicadores HHI e de Entropia de Theil (E) mostram redu\ue7\ue3o na concentra\ue7\ue3o das exporta\ue7\uf5es mundiais de produtos florestais e maior competi\ue7\ue3o entre os pa\uedses que comercializam tais produtos; o \ucdndice de Gini indica que, apesar do aumento de exportadores de produtos florestais ao longo do per\uedodo de an\ue1lise, um n\ufamero reduzido de competidores concentra fra\ue7\uf5es cada vez maiores das exporta\ue7\uf5es internacionais desses produtos; os \uedndices sum\ue1rios (HHI, E e G) indicaram que o aumento da competi\ue7\ue3o e da concorr\ueancia n\ue3o tem se traduzido em uma distribui\ue7\ue3o mais equitativa das exporta\ue7\uf5es de produtos florestais, que levasse \ue0 redu\ue7\ue3o das desigualdades e da concentra\ue7\ue3o dos ganhos do setor; apesar da tend\ueancia decrescente dos CR(4) e CR(8), h\ue1 uma eleva\ue7\ue3o de G, isso porque os ganhos de escala do com\ue9rcio internacional t\ueam sido apropriado por poucos concorrentes; \ue9 recomendada cautela na an\ue1lise dos \uedndices sum\ue1rios (HHI, E e G), que devem ser examinados em conjunto com os \uedndices parciais [CR(k)] para n\ue3o tirar conclus\uf5es err\uf4neas; os pa\uedses com expressiva participa\ue7\ue3o na pauta de exporta\ue7\uf5es, como o Brasil, devem buscar estrat\ue9gias comerciais para reter as vantagens competitivas conquistadas, principalmente aquelas advindas do ganho de escala.This study analyzed the degree of concentration in worldwide exports of forest products in the period ranging from 1961 to 2008. The data used are available at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The concentration was determined by the concentration ratio [HR (k)], the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Theil Entropy Index (E) and the Gini index (G). The main conclusions were: The aggregate Brazilian share in the world exports of forest products is increasing over time; the most important sectors in the aggregate world exports of forest products, in decreasing order, were pulp, lumber, paper and cardboard, wooden panels, saw and fire wood. According to Bain, the concentration ratio of the four and eight largest exporters of forest products is moderately low; the HHI and Theil Entropy (E) show a reduction in the concentration of world exports of forest products and greater competition among the countries that sell such products; the Gini index indicates that despite the increase in export of forest products over the period of analysis, a smaller number of competitors concentrate increasingly larger shares of international exports of these products; summary indices (HHI, E and G) indicated that increased competition has not led to a more equitable distribution of forest products so as to bring down inequalities and concentration of profits in the sector; despite the downward trend in CR (4) and CR (8), there is an increase in G, probably because the economies of scale in the international trade have been held by few competitors; caution is recommended in the analysis of summary indices (HHI, E and G) which had better be checked jointly with the partial indices [CR (k)] in order to avoid wrong conclusions; countries with a significant share in total exports, such as Brazil, should seek business strategies to retain competitive advantages, especially those arising from economies of scale

Time series analysis of the behavior of natural rubber prices in the international market

Este trabalho analisou o comportamento dos pre\ue7os da borracha natural no mercado internacional, no per\uedodo de janeiro de 1982 a dezembro de 2006, em fun\ue7\ue3o de sua oferta e demanda agregadas, evidenciando os principais pa\uedses produtores e consumidores. Especificamente a pesquisa analisou a evolu\ue7\ue3o dos pre\ue7os e do quantum comercializado da borracha natural no mercado internacional. Caracterizou, identificou, estimou e analisou modelos para a s\ue9rie de pre\ue7os reais mensais da borracha crua RSS 1 (US/t) e; testou a precis\ue3o dos modelos estimados na previs\ue3o dos pre\ue7os dessa commodity, no per\uedodo de jan./2006 a dez./2006. Os modelos estudados foram das classes ARIMA-ARCH. Os principais resultados encontrados foram: 0s pre\ue7os reais da borracha natural, no per\uedodo estudado, apresentam tend\ueancia decrescente; A identifica\ue7\ue3o e estima\ue7\ue3o dos modelos da fam\uedlia ARIMA mostraram a exist\ueancia de heteroscedasticidade na s\ue9rie estudada e a necessidade de identificar, estimar e analisar os modelos da fam\uedlia ARCH; O modelo que melhor ajustou os retornos da s\ue9rie de pre\ue7os da borracha crua RSS 1 foi o AR(1) para um GARCH(1,1); Os modelos da fam\uedlia ARIMA n\ue3o satisfizeram as condi\ue7\uf5es de previs\ue3o da s\ue9rie estudada; o modelo AR (1)-GARCH (1,1) se mostrou preciso para a realiza\ue7\ue3o de prognoses do pre\ue7o da borracha.This work analyzed the behavior of natural rubber prices in the international market from January 1982 to December 2006 in function of its aggregated demand and supply, pointing out the main producing and consuming countries. Specifically, the research studied the evolution of prices and of the marketed quantum of natural rubber in the international market. It was characterized, identified, estimated and analyzed models for the real monthly prices series of raw rubber RSS 1 (US/t), and the accuracy of the estimated models for forecasting prices of this commodity was tested from Jan/2006 to Dez/2006. The studied models were of ARIMA-ARCH class. The main results were: the real natural rubber prices presented decreasing tendency in the period being studied; the ARIMA family estimated model indicating the existence of heteroskedasticity in the series, making it necessary to identify, to estimate and to analyze the models of ARCH family; the model which best adjusted the returns of the price series of the raw rubber RSS1 was AR(1)-GARCH(1,1); the models of the ARIMA family didn't satisfy the prognosis conditions of the series being studied; the AIR (1)-GARCH (1,1) model was accurate for forecasting rubber prices

GLOBAL CONCENTRATION OF PULP EXPORTS

This study analyzed the evolution and degree of the global concentration of pulp exports from 1961 to 2014. In order to measure and analyze the concentration, the following indicators were used: Concentration Ratio [CR(k)]; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI); Theil Entropy Index (E); Hall and Tideman Index (HTI); Comprehensive Concentration Index (CCI); and Gini Coefficient (G). We concluded that there was a tendency of growth in the global pulp exports during the analyzed period due to an increase in demand driven by population growth and to per capita consumption, enhancing the increase in the number of exporting countries. The CR(k) of the global pulp exporting countries showed that the four [CR(4)] and eight [CR(8)] largest countries present a high concentration, with an oligopolistic market structure and competitive advantage. About 100% of exports are dominated by the 20 largest countries [CR(20)]. The HHI, E, HTI, and CCI indicators showed that there is a concentration in global pulp exportation and presented a deconcentrating tendency. Despite the increase in the number of exporting countries, there was no significant reduction in the inequality of global pulp exports. According to the Gini Coefficient, the inequality was strong to absolute.This study analyzed the evolution and degree of the global concentration of pulp exports from 1961 to 2014. In order to measure and analyze the concentration, the following indicators were used: Concentration Ratio [CR(k)]; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI); Theil Entropy Index (E); Hall and Tideman Index (HTI); Comprehensive Concentration Index (CCI); and Gini Coefficient (G). We concluded that there was a tendency of growth in the global pulp exports during the analyzed period due to an increase in demand driven by population growth and to per capita consumption, enhancing the increase in the number of exporting countries. The CR(k) of the global pulp exporting countries showed that the four [CR(4)] and eight [CR(8)] largest countries present a high concentration, with an oligopolistic market structure and competitive advantage. About 100% of exports are dominated by the 20 largest countries [CR(20)]. The HHI, E, HTI, and CCI indicators showed that there is a concentration in global pulp exportation and presented a deconcentrating tendency. Despite the increase in the number of exporting countries, there was no significant reduction in the inequality of global pulp exports. According to the Gini Coefficient, the inequality was strong to absolute

Microgeneration of Wind Energy for Micro and Small Businesses: Application of ANN in Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic Economic Feasibility

To reduce the risks of a new energy crisis and increase energy availability, the use of renewable energy sources (RES) is important and recommended. In Brazil, micro and small companies contribute about 25% of gross domestic product (GDP), and electric energy is employed intensively, so the importance of microgeneration is observable. This research aims to analyze the economic viability of the micro-generation wind energy project for micro and small businesses. Thus, three Brazilian states, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais were considered, and different scenarios were proposed. A feasibility analysis is then performed, followed by a stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, models of artificial neural networks (ANN) are used to evaluate the relative importance (RI) of the variables. The results show that none of the states appears economically feasible under the conditions presented. In the stochastic analysis, the probability of viability is between 17% and 24% in all states, which shows the low probability of viability for microgeneration. Through ANN training, it was possible to calculate the RI, in which it is possible to identify the variables that have most impact on the net present value (NPV) in all states; it is considered the most important variable in the project's viability. In addition, the discussion explores the importance of public incentives for promoting investment in renewable energy, which can reduce investment costs and make it attractive to small and medium-sized businesses

Disparidade do valor bruto de produção dos produtos madeireiros nativos nas mesorregiões da Paraíba, Brasil (1994-2017)

Este artigo analisou a disparidade do valor bruto de produção dos produtos madeireiros do extrativismo vegetal das mesorregiões da Paraíba, Brasil, no período de 1994 a 2017. Os indicadores empregados foram: o quociente locacional (QL), o coeficiente locacional (CL), o coeficiente de redistribuição (CRED), o coeficiente de associação geográfica (Cag), o coeficiente de especialização (CE) e o coeficiente de reestruturação (Cr). Os resultados apontaram que a lenha foi o principal produto madeireiro e a mesorregião Sertão paraibano maior relevância, elevando a disparidade entre as regiões; o CRED apontou maior mudança para o carvão vegetal; a Mata Paraibana foi mais especializada em lenha e a mesorregião da Borborema apresentou a maior reestruturação em todos os períodos estudados. O estudo evidenciou que o VBP dos produtos madeireiros nativos ocorreu, principalmente, nas regiões mais áridas do estado para atender a demanda energética local e circunvizinha, com destaque aos segmentos de cerâmica vermelha e gesso.This paper analyzed the disparity in the gross production value of timber products from the state of Paraíba, Brazil, between 1994 and 2017. The indicators used were: the locational quotient (Lq), the coefficient of location (Cl), the coefficient of redistribution (Cred), the coefficient of geographic association (Cga), the coefficient of specialization (Cs) and the coefficient of restructuring (Cr). The results obtained indicated that wood was the main timber product extracted in the state of Paraíba, with the Sertão paraibano region being of greater relevance, increasing the disparity between the regions; the Cred pointed out greater change for charcoal extraction; the Mata Paraibana region was the most specialized region, especially for wood extraction; and the Borborema region presented the greatest restructuring in all studied periods. The study evidenced that the extraction of wood products mainly occurred in the more arid regions of the state with the purpose of population subsistence or industrial use, especially in the red ceramics and plaster segments for which wood can be used to generate heat and thermoelectric power