Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Lepidoptera are sensitive to climate change, with documented impacts on their phenology, distribution and communities. However, there remains considerable uncertainty over which species are most vulnerable, and which have been most affected so far. To address this, we analyse 35-year UK or English population trends of 55 butterfly and 265 moth species to model the impacts of variation in temperature and precipitation upon population growth rates. We identify the weather variables and periods that species are most sensitive to, the long-term impacts of climate change, and the characteristics of species which show the greatest responses. Positive impacts of summer temperature on both butterflies and moths were partly offset by negative impacts of temperature in other seasons, particularly winter. Precipitation tended to have negative impacts on population growth rates, particularly for moths. Annual population fluctuations were strongly driven by inter-annual variation in weather conditions. Over 40% of a significant decline in mean moth abundance from the 1990s to 2000s was consistent with a weather-driven decline predicted by our models, which also explained up to 19% of the decadal variation in abundance between species. Species overwintering as larvae and multivoltine species were most sensitive to the effects of weather, whilst southerly-distributed species, species associated with woodland and unimproved grassland habitats, and pest species, showed the most positive long-term responses to climate change. Combined, these results show how climate change is already having significant impacts on the abundance of particular butterfly and moth species, with likely future consequences for ecosystem function and services

The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with ‘business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions

Multi-taxa spatial conservation planning reveals similar priorities between taxa and improved protected area representation with climate change

Protected area (PA) networks have in the past been constructed to include all major habitats, but have often been developed through consideration of only a few indicator taxa or across restricted areas, and rarely account for global climate change. Systematic conservation planning (SCP) aims to improve the efficiency of biodiversity conservation, particularly when addressing internationally agreed protection targets. We apply SCP in Great Britain (GB) using the widest taxonomic coverage to date (4,447 species), compare spatial prioritisation results across 18 taxa and use projected future (2080) distributions to assess the potential impact of climate change on PA network effectiveness. Priority conservation areas were similar among multiple taxa, despite considerable differences in spatial species richness patterns; thus systematic prioritisations based on indicator taxa for which data are widely available are still useful for conservation planning. We found that increasing the number of protected hectads by 2% (to reach the 2020 17% Aichi target) could have a disproportionate positive effect on species protected, with an increase of up to 17% for some taxa. The PA network in GB currently under-represents priority species but, if the potential future distributions under climate change are realised, the proportion of species distributions protected by the current PA network may increase, because many PAs are in northern and higher altitude areas. Optimal locations for new PAs are particularly concentrated in southern and upland areas of GB. This application of SCP shows how a small addition to an existing PA network could have disproportionate benefits for species conservation

A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion, that climate change could pose for over 3,000 plants and animals that occur in England. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors, was applied to 402 species, of which 35 % were at risk of range loss and 42 % may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit. The balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and increasing uncertainty of the future

The role of sex in the pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a progressive disease characterised by increased pulmonary vascular resistance and pulmonary artery remodelling as result of increased vascular tone and vascular cell proliferation, respectively. Eventually, this leads to right heart failure. Heritable PAH is caused by a mutation in the bone morphogenetic protein receptor-II (BMPR-II). Female susceptibility to PAH has been known for some time, and most recent figures show a female-to-male ratio of 4:1. Variations in the female sex hormone estrogen and estrogen metabolism modify FPAH risk, and penetrance of the disease in BMPR-II mutation carriers is increased in females. Several lines of evidence point towards estrogen being pathogenic in the pulmonary circulation, and thus increasing the risk of females developing PAH. Recent studies have also suggested that estrogen metabolism may be crucial in the development and progression of PAH with studies indicating that downstream metabolites such as 16α-hydroxyestrone are upregulated in several forms of experimental pulmonary hypertension (PH) and can cause pulmonary artery smooth muscle cell proliferation and subsequent vascular remodelling. Conversely, other estrogen metabolites such as 2-methoxyestradiol have been shown to be protective in the context of PAH. Estrogen may also upregulate the signalling pathways of other key mediators of PAH such as serotonin

Woodland Recovery after Suppression of Deer: Cascade effects for Small Mammals, Wood Mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and Bank Voles (Myodes glareolus)

Over the past century, increases in both density and distribution of deer species in the Northern Hemisphere have resulted in major changes in ground flora and undergrowth vegetation of woodland habitats, and consequentially the animal communities that inhabit them. In this study, we tested whether recovery in the vegetative habitat of a woodland due to effective deer management (from a peak of 0.4–1.5 to <0.17 deer per ha) had translated to the small mammal community as an example of a higher order cascade effect. We compared deer-free exclosures with neighboring open woodland using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods to see if the significant difference in bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) numbers between these environments from 2001–2003 persisted in 2010. Using the multi-state Robust Design method in program MARK we found survival and abundance of both voles and mice to be equivalent between the open woodland and the experimental exclosures with no differences in various metrics of population structure (age structure, sex composition, reproductive activity) and individual fitness (weight), although the vole population showed variation both locally and temporally. This suggests that the vegetative habitat - having passed some threshold of complexity due to lowered deer density - has allowed recovery of the small mammal community, although patch dynamics associated with vegetation complexity still remain. We conclude that the response of small mammal communities to environmental disturbance such as intense browsing pressure can be rapidly reversed once the disturbing agent has been removed and the vegetative habitat is allowed to increase in density and complexity, although we encourage caution, as a source/sink dynamic may emerge between old growth patches and the recently disturbed habitat under harsh conditions

More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas

Global declines in insects have sparked wide interest among scientists, politicians, and the general public. Loss of insect diversity and abundance is expected to provoke cascading effects on food webs and to jeopardize ecosystem services. Our understanding of the extent and underlying causes of this decline is based on the abundance of single species or taxonomic groups only, rather than changes in insect biomass which is more relevant for ecological functioning. Here, we used a standardized protocol to measure total insect biomass using Malaise traps, deployed over 27 years in 63 nature protection areas in Germany (96 unique location-year combinations) to infer on the status and trend of local entomofauna. Our analysis estimates a seasonal decline of 76%, and mid-summer decline of 82% in flying insect biomass over the 27 years of study. We show that this decline is apparent regardless of habitat type, while changes in weather, land use, and habitat characteristics cannot explain this overall decline. This yet unrecognized loss of insect biomass must be taken into account in evaluating declines in abundance of species depending on insects as a food source, and ecosystem functioning in the European landscape