Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study

When patients randomised to the control group of a randomised controlled trial are allowed to switch onto the experimental treatment, intention-to-treat analyses of the treatment effect are confounded because the separation of randomised groups is lost. Previous research has investigated statistical methods that aim to estimate the treatment effect that would have been observed had this treatment switching not occurred and has demonstrated their performance in a limited set of scenarios. Here, we investigate these methods in a new range of realistic scenarios, allowing conclusions to be made based upon a broader evidence base. We simulated randomised controlled trials incorporating prognosis-related treatment switching and investigated the impact of sample size, reduced switching proportions, disease severity, and alternative data-generating models on the performance of adjustment methods, assessed through a comparison of bias, mean squared error, and coverage, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. Rank preserving structural failure time models, inverse probability of censoring weights, and two-stage methods consistently produced less bias than the intentionto-treat analysis. The switching proportion was confirmed to be a key determinant of bias: sample size and censoring proportion were relatively less important. It is critical to determine the size of the treatment effect in terms of an acceleration factor (rather than a hazard ratio) to provide information on the likely bias associated with rank-preserving structural failure time model adjustments. In general, inverse probability of censoring weight methods are more volatile than other adjustment methods

Long-Term Follow-Up of the Intergroup Exemestane Study

Purpose: The Intergroup Exemestane Study, an investigator-led study of 4,724 postmenopausal patients with early breast cancer (clinical trial information: ISRCTN11883920), has previously demonstrated that a switch from adjuvant endocrine therapy after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen to exemestane was associated with clinically relevant improvements in efficacy. Here, we report the final efficacy analyses of this cohort. Patients and Methods: Patients who remained disease free after 2 to 3 years of adjuvant tamoxifen were randomly assigned to continue tamoxifen or switch to exemestane to complete a total of 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Given the large number of non–breast cancer–related deaths now reported, breast cancer–free survival (BCFS), with censorship of intercurrent deaths, was the primary survival end point of interest. Analyses focus on patients with estrogen receptor-positive or unknown tumors (n = 4,599). Results: At the time of the data snapshot, median follow-up was 120 months. In the population that was estrogen receptor positive or had unknown estrogen receptor status, 1,111 BCFS events were observed with 508 (22.1%) of 2,294 patients in the exemestane group and 603 (26.2%) of 2,305 patients in the tamoxifen group. The data corresponded to an absolute difference (between exemestane and tamoxifen) at 10 years of 4.0% (95% CI, 1.2% to 6.7%), and the hazard ratio (HR) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.92) favored exemestane. This difference remained in multivariable analysis that was adjusted for nodal status, prior use of hormone replacement therapy, and prior chemotherapy (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.90; P < .001). A modest improvement in overall survival was seen with exemestane; the absolute difference (between exemestane and tamoxifen) at 10 years in the population that was estrogen receptor positive or had unknown estrogen receptor status was 2.1% (95% CI, −0.5% to 4.6%), and the HR was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.78 to 1.01; P = .08). For the intention-to-treat population, the absolute difference was 1.6% (95% CI, −0.9% to 4.1%); the HR was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80 to 1.03, P = .15). No statistically significant difference was observed in the proportion of patients who reported a fracture event in the post-treatment period. Conclusion: The Intergroup Exemestane Study and contemporaneous studies have established that a strategy of switching to an aromatase inhibitor after 2 to 3 years of tamoxifen can lead to sustained benefits in terms of reduction of disease recurrence and breast cancer mortality

Exploration of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes as a predictive biomarker for adjuvant endocrine therapy in early breast cancer.

PURPOSE:Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) have been shown to be prognostic for disease-free survival and predictive for the benefit of chemotherapy in patients with early breast cancer, but have not been studied for endocrine therapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN:The number of CD8-positive TILs was assessed in a subcohort of 236 patients in the Intergroup Exemestane Study. AQ After 2-3 years of adjuvant tamoxifen, AQpatients were randomized between the schemes of continuation for 5 years on tamoxifen and switching to exemestane. The numbers of CD8-positive TILs were analysed for correlations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). A similar analysis was performed on 2596 patients in the TEAM trial who were randomized between the sequential scheme and the exemestane monotherapy. RESULTS:In the first cohort, patients with low (below median) numbers of CD8-positive TILs had a univariate hazard ratio (HR) for DFS of 0.27 (95% CI 0.13-0.55) in favour of treatment with exemestane, whereas this benefit was not observed in patients with high numbers of CD8-positive TILs (HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.71-2.50, HR for interaction 5.02, p = 0.001). In the second cohort, patients with low numbers of CD8-positive TILs showed a benefit of exemestane treatment on recurrence-free survival (RFS HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.45-0.99), and not with above-median numbers of CD8-positive TILs (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.59-1.26, HR for interaction 1.29, p = 0.36). CONCLUSIONS:This study is the first to propose the number of CD8-positive TILs as potential predictive markers for endocrine therapy, with the low presence of CD8-positive TILs associated to benefit for exemestane-inclusive therapy. However, treatment-by-marker interactions were only significant in one cohort, indicating the need for further validation

Acute kidney disease and renal recovery : consensus report of the Acute Disease Quality Initiative (ADQI) 16 Workgroup

Consensus definitions have been reached for both acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and these definitions are now routinely used in research and clinical practice. The KDIGO guideline defines AKI as an abrupt decrease in kidney function occurring over 7 days or less, whereas CKD is defined by the persistence of kidney disease for a period of > 90 days. AKI and CKD are increasingly recognized as related entities and in some instances probably represent a continuum of the disease process. For patients in whom pathophysiologic processes are ongoing, the term acute kidney disease (AKD) has been proposed to define the course of disease after AKI; however, definitions of AKD and strategies for the management of patients with AKD are not currently available. In this consensus statement, the Acute Disease Quality Initiative (ADQI) proposes definitions, staging criteria for AKD, and strategies for the management of affected patients. We also make recommendations for areas of future research, which aim to improve understanding of the underlying processes and improve outcomes for patients with AKD

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.</p

Increasing the dose intensity of chemotherapy by more frequent administration or sequential scheduling: a patient-level meta-analysis of 37 298 women with early breast cancer in 26 randomised trials

Background Increasing the dose intensity of cytotoxic therapy by shortening the intervals between cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially at full dose rather than in lower-dose concurrent treatment schedules, might enhance efficacy. Methods To clarify the relative benefits and risks of dose-intense and standard-schedule chemotherapy in early breast cancer, we did an individual patient-level meta-analysis of trials comparing 2-weekly versus standard 3-weekly schedules, and of trials comparing sequential versus concurrent administration of anthracycline and taxane chemotherapy. The primary outcomes were recurrence and breast cancer mortality. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded dose-intense versus standard-schedule first-event rate ratios (RRs). Findings Individual patient data were provided for 26 of 33 relevant trials identified, comprising 37 298 (93%) of 40 070 women randomised. Most women were aged younger than 70 years and had node-positive disease. Total cytotoxic drug usage was broadly comparable in the two treatment arms; colony-stimulating factor was generally used in the more dose-intense arm. Combining data from all 26 trials, fewer breast cancer recurrences were seen with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year recurrence risk 28·0% vs 31·4%; RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·82–0·89; p<0·0001). 10-year breast cancer mortality was similarly reduced (18·9% vs 21·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83–0·92; p<0·0001), as was all-cause mortality (22·1% vs 24·8%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83–0·91; p<0·0001). Death without recurrence was, if anything, lower with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year risk 4·1% vs 4·6%; RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78–0·99; p=0·034). Recurrence reductions were similar in the seven trials (n=10 004) that compared 2-weekly chemotherapy with the same chemotherapy given 3-weekly (10-year risk 24·0% vs 28·3%; RR 0·83, 95% CI 0·76–0·91; p<0·0001), in the six trials (n=11 028) of sequential versus concurrent anthracycline plus taxane chemotherapy (28·1% vs 31·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·80–0·94; p=0·0006), and in the six trials (n=6532) testing both shorter intervals and sequential administration (30·4% vs 35·0%; RR 0·82, 95% CI 0·74–0·90; p<0·0001). The proportional reductions in recurrence with dose-intense chemotherapy were similar and highly significant (p<0·0001) in oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative disease and did not differ significantly by other patient or tumour characteristics. Interpretation Increasing the dose intensity of adjuvant chemotherapy by shortening the interval between treatment cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially rather than giving the same drugs concurrently, moderately reduces the 10-year risk of recurrence and death from breast cancer without increasing mortality from other causes. Funding Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council