Advancing projections of phytoplankton responses to climate change through ensemble modelling

A global trend of increasing health hazards associated with proliferation of toxin-producing cyanobacteria makes the ability to project phytoplankton dynamics of paramount importance. Whilst ensemble (multi-)modelling approaches have been used for a number of years to improve the robustness of weather forecasts this approach has until now never been adopted for ecosystem modelling. We show that the average simulated phytoplankton biomass derived from three different aquatic ecosystem models is generally superior to any of the three individual models in describing observed phytoplankton biomass in a typical temperate lake ecosystem, and we simulate a series of climate change projections. While this is the first multi-model ensemble approach applied for some of the most complex aquatic ecosystem models available, we consider it sets a precedent for what will become commonplace methodology in the future, as it enables increased robustness of model projections, and scenario uncertainty estimation due to differences in model structures

Classical and ab initio preparation of reliable structures for polymeric coordination compounds

The detailed investigation of electronic and magnetic properties of polymeric coordination materials with accurate ab initio quantum mechanical methods is often computationally extremely demanding because of the large number of atoms in the unit cell. Moreover, usually the available structural data are insufficient or poorly determined, especially when the structure contains hydrogen atoms. In order to be able to perform controlled ab initio calculations on reliable structures, we use a two-step approach to systematically prepare model structures for polymeric coordination compound systems and to relax them to their equilibrium configuration. First, a structure is constructed on the basis of a crystallographic database and optimized by force field methods; in the second step, the structure is relaxed by ab initio quantum mechanical molecular dynamics. With this structure, we perform accurate electronic structure calculations. We will apply this procedure to a Fe(II) triazole compound and to a coordination polymer of Cu(II) ions with 2,5-bis(pyrazol-1-yl)-1,4-dihydroxybenzene.Comment: 7 pages, 5 eps figures; proceedings of the symposium on "Spin- and charge-correlations in molecule-based materials", October 2005, Koenigstein (Taunus), Germany, final versio

Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science

Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. We use the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. We assume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: We find that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries—that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. We suggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals—as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they require many efforts to decipher the numerous interactions and feedback loops. Given the breadth of questions to be tackled when dealing with coral reefs, the best practice approach uses multiple model types and thus benefits from the strength of different models types

The Banana Project. III. Spin-orbit Alignment in the Long-period Eclipsing Binary NY Cephei

Binaries are not always neatly aligned. Previous observations of the DI Her system showed that the spin axes of both stars are highly inclined with respect to one another and the orbital axis. Here we report on a measurement of the spin-axis orientation of the primary star of the NY Cep system, which is similar to DI Her in many respects: it features two young early-type stars (~6 Myr, B0.5V+B2V), in an eccentric and relatively long-period orbit (e=0.48, P=15.d3). The sky projections of the rotation vector and the spin vector are well-aligned (beta_p = 2 +- 4 degrees), in strong contrast to DI Her. Although no convincing explanation has yet been given for the misalignment of DI Her, our results show that the phenomenon is not universal, and that a successful theory will need to account for the different outcome in the case of NY Cep.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Анализ особенностей повышения достоверности кадастровой стоимости

Основной научный результат работы заключается в разработке рекомендаций по повышению достоверности кадастровой стоимости объектов жилой недвижимости, необходимо провести анализ существующей информации данных кадастрового учета, содержащихся в Едином государственном реестре объектов недвижимости.Relevance of the research topic. In connection with the change in the taxation system of residential real estate, municipal authorities and individual owners take an interest in the objectivity and reliability of the results in calculating the cadastral value of real estate objects (further in the text - EO) on thе basis of their actual characteristics. For owners, this is a guarantee of the validity of the base for calculating property tax, or the base for calculating rent for the use of real estate. For local governments, it is regarded as the predictability and financial support in the revenue part of the municipality budget in order to ensure the future socio-economic development of territories. The topic is relevant in terms of designing the development directions and improving the s