Healthcare expenditure prediction with neighbourhood variables:A random forest model

We investigated the additional predictive value of an individual’s neighbourhood (quality and location), and of changes therein on his/her healthcare costs. To this end, we combined several Dutch nationwide data sources from 2003 to 2014, and selected inhabitants who moved in 2010. We used random forest models to predict the area under the curve of the regular healthcare costs of individuals in the years 2011–2014. In our analyses, the quality of the neighbourhood before the move appeared to be quite important in predicting healthcare costs (i.e. importance rank 11 out of 126 socio-demographic and neighbourhood variables; rank 73 out of 261 in the full model with prior expenditure and medication). The predictive performance of the models was evaluated in terms of R2 (or proportion of explained variance) and MAE (mean absolute (prediction) error). The model containing only socio-demographic information improved marginally when neighbourhood was added (R2 +0.8%, MAE −€5). The full model remained the same for the study population (R2 = 48.8%, MAE of €1556) and for subpopulations. These results indicate that only in prediction models in which prior expenditure and utilization cannot or ought not to be used neighbourhood might be an interesting source of information to improve predictive performance

Изменение микроструктуры пружинного Сr-Ni сплава после старения

Установлено, что старение закаленного сплава 47ХНМ при температуре 500 °С в течение 5...10 ч не приводит к распаду пересыщенного твердого раствора, при повышении температуры старения до 600 °С начинают проявляться признаки распада в частицах ?-фазы гомогенного типа. Показано, что после старения при 700 °С закаленных образцов интенсивно развивается прерывистый распад с выделением некогерентной ?-фазы на основе хрома, причем объемная доля его возрастает с увеличением времени старения, достигая максимальных значений за 5...10 ч старения

Pain shared, pain halved? Cooperation as a coping strategy for innovation barriers

The paper analyses the relationship between the perception of barriers to innovation and the firm’s propensity to cooperate to mitigate their effect. First, we look at whether cooperation with research organizations or private firms is associated with experiencing different types of barriers, for example, financial constraints, lack of human capital or uncertain market demand. Second, we test whether experiencing several types of barriers simultaneously has a super-modular effect on the propensity to cooperate tout court, and the choice of cooperation partner. We find that having to face a single, specific constraint leads to firms ‘sharing the pain’ with cooperation partners—both research organization and other firms. However, the results of a super-modularity test show that having to cope with different barriers is a deterrent to establishing cooperation agreements, especially when firms lack finance, adequate skills and information on technology or markets. The paper adds to the innovation literature by identifying the factors associated with firms’ coping with different barriers by applying a selective cooperation strategy

Dietary Supplementation with Soluble Plantain Non-Starch Polysaccharides Inhibits Intestinal Invasion of Salmonella Typhimurium in the Chicken

Soluble fibres (non-starch polysaccharides, NSP) from edible plants but particularly plantain banana (Musa spp.), have been shown in vitro and ex vivo to prevent various enteric pathogens from adhering to, or translocating across, the human intestinal epithelium, a property that we have termed contrabiotic. Here we report that dietary plantain fibre prevents invasion of the chicken intestinal mucosa by Salmonella. In vivo experiments were performed with chicks fed from hatch on a pellet diet containing soluble plantain NSP (0 to 200 mg/d) and orally infected with S.Typhimurium 4/74 at 8 d of age. Birds were sacrificed 3, 6 and 10 d post-infection. Bacteria were enumerated from liver, spleen and caecal contents. In vitro studies were performed using chicken caecal crypts and porcine intestinal epithelial cells infected with Salmonella enterica serovars following pre-treatment separately with soluble plantain NSP and acidic or neutral polysaccharide fractions of plantain NSP, each compared with saline vehicle. Bacterial adherence and invasion were assessed by gentamicin protection assay. In vivo dietary supplementation with plantain NSP 50 mg/d reduced invasion by S.Typhimurium, as reflected by viable bacterial counts from splenic tissue, by 98.9% (95% CI, 98.1–99.7; P<0.0001). In vitro studies confirmed that plantain NSP (5–10 mg/ml) inhibited adhesion of S.Typhimurium 4/74 to a porcine epithelial cell-line (73% mean inhibition (95% CI, 64–81); P<0.001) and to primary chick caecal crypts (82% mean inhibition (95% CI, 75–90); P<0.001). Adherence inhibition was shown to be mediated via an effect on the epithelial cells and Ussing chamber experiments with ex-vivo human ileal mucosa showed that this effect was associated with increased short circuit current but no change in electrical resistance. The inhibitory activity of plantain NSP lay mainly within the acidic/pectic (homogalacturonan-rich) component. Supplementation of chick feed with plantain NSP was well tolerated and shows promise as a simple approach for reducing invasive salmonellosis