Characterizing the variability and meteorological drivers of wind power and solar power generation over Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest energy access rates in the world, which poses a key barrier to power system development. Deployment of renewables, including wind and solar power, will play a key role in expanding electricity supply across SSA: distributed generation (enabling access for remote communities), cost-effectiveness and low emissions are key advantages. However, renewable generation is weather dependent; therefore, including more renewables increases the amount of meteorologically driven variability in the power system. Two countries in SSA are chosen for detailed investigation of this meteorologically driven variability: Senegal in West Africa and Kenya in East Africa. These are chosen due to being areas of dense population, where there is operational wind and solar power, and plans for regional expansion. In Senegal, solar generation is fairly consistent throughout the year, while wind generation exhibits strong seasonality, with a peak in the boreal spring. Low wind and solar power generation days during the boreal summer are found to be related to the passage of African Easterly Waves. Over Kenya, both wind and solar generation exhibit seasonal variability, with wind generation peaking during boreal autumn, and solar generation at a minimum during boreal summer. Inter-annual variability in generation is greater over Kenya than over Senegal; the El Nino Southern Oscillation is found to impact wind and solar generation over Kenya. El Nino phases are associated with lower wind and solar generation in October–December over Kenya, but higher generation in July–September. This improved understanding of variability will assist system planners in designing reliable future energy systems

Daily emollient during infancy for prevention of eczema: the BEEP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin barrier dysfunction precedes eczema development. We tested whether daily use of emollient in the first year could prevent eczema in high-risk children. METHODS: We did a multicentre, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial in 12 hospitals and four primary care sites across the UK. Families were approached via antenatal or postnatal services for recruitment of term infants (at least 37 weeks' gestation) at high risk of developing eczema (ie, at least one first-degree relative with parent-reported eczema, allergic rhinitis, or asthma, diagnosed by a doctor). Term newborns with a family history of atopic disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to application of emollient daily (either Diprobase cream or DoubleBase gel) for the first year plus standard skin-care advice (emollient group) or standard skin-care advice only (control group). The randomisation schedule was created using computer-generated code (stratified by recruiting centre and number of first-degree relatives with atopic disease) and participants were assigned to groups using an internet-based randomisation system. The primary outcome was eczema at age 2 years (defined by UK working party criteria) with analysis as randomised regardless of adherence to allocation for participants with outcome data collected, and adjusting for stratification variables. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN21528841. Data collection for long-term follow-up is ongoing, but the trial is closed to recruitment. FINDINGS: 1394 newborns were randomly assigned to study groups between Nov 19, 2014, and Nov 18, 2016; 693 were assigned to the emollient group and 701 to the control group. Adherence in the emollient group was 88% (466 of 532) at 3 months, 82% (427 of 519) at 6 months, and 74% (375 of 506) at 12 months in those with complete questionnaire data. At age 2 years, eczema was present in 139 (23%) of 598 infants with outcome data collected in the emollient group and 150 (25%) of 612 infants in the control group (adjusted relative risk 0·95 [95% CI 0·78 to 1·16], p=0·61; adjusted risk difference -1·2% [-5·9 to 3·6]). Other eczema definitions supported the results of the primary analysis. Mean number of skin infections per child in year 1 was 0·23 (SD 0·68) in the emollient group versus 0·15 (0·46) in the control group; adjusted incidence rate ratio 1·55 (95% CI 1·15 to 2·09). INTERPRETATION: We found no evidence that daily emollient during the first year of life prevents eczema in high-risk children and some evidence to suggest an increased risk of skin infections. Our study shows that families with eczema, asthma, or allergic rhinitis should not use daily emollients to try and prevent eczema in their newborn. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment

Daily emollient during infancy for prevention of eczema: the BEEP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin barrier dysfunction precedes eczema development. We tested whether daily use of emollient in the first year could prevent eczema in high-risk children. METHODS: We did a multicentre, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial in 12 hospitals and four primary care sites across the UK. Families were approached via antenatal or postnatal services for recruitment of term infants (at least 37 weeks' gestation) at high risk of developing eczema (ie, at least one first-degree relative with parent-reported eczema, allergic rhinitis, or asthma, diagnosed by a doctor). Term newborns with a family history of atopic disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to application of emollient daily (either Diprobase cream or DoubleBase gel) for the first year plus standard skin-care advice (emollient group) or standard skin-care advice only (control group). The randomisation schedule was created using computer-generated code (stratified by recruiting centre and number of first-degree relatives with atopic disease) and participants were assigned to groups using an internet-based randomisation system. The primary outcome was eczema at age 2 years (defined by UK working party criteria) with analysis as randomised regardless of adherence to allocation for participants with outcome data collected, and adjusting for stratification variables. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN21528841. Data collection for long-term follow-up is ongoing, but the trial is closed to recruitment. FINDINGS: 1394 newborns were randomly assigned to study groups between Nov 19, 2014, and Nov 18, 2016; 693 were assigned to the emollient group and 701 to the control group. Adherence in the emollient group was 88% (466 of 532) at 3 months, 82% (427 of 519) at 6 months, and 74% (375 of 506) at 12 months in those with complete questionnaire data. At age 2 years, eczema was present in 139 (23%) of 598 infants with outcome data collected in the emollient group and 150 (25%) of 612 infants in the control group (adjusted relative risk 0·95 [95% CI 0·78 to 1·16], p=0·61; adjusted risk difference -1·2% [-5·9 to 3·6]). Other eczema definitions supported the results of the primary analysis. Mean number of skin infections per child in year 1 was 0·23 (SD 0·68) in the emollient group versus 0·15 (0·46) in the control group; adjusted incidence rate ratio 1·55 (95% CI 1·15 to 2·09). INTERPRETATION: We found no evidence that daily emollient during the first year of life prevents eczema in high-risk children and some evidence to suggest an increased risk of skin infections. Our study shows that families with eczema, asthma, or allergic rhinitis should not use daily emollients to try and prevent eczema in their newborn. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment

Examining a staging model for anorexia nervosa: empirical exploration of a four stage model of severity.

Background: An illness staging model for anorexia nervosa (AN) has received increasing attention, but assessing the merits of this concept is dependent on empirically examining a model in clinical samples. Building on preliminary findings regarding the reliability and validity of the Clinician Administered Staging Instrument for Anorexia Nervosa (CASIAN), the current study explores operationalising CASIAN severity scores into stages and assesses their relationship with other clinical features. Method: In women with DSM-IV-R AN and sub-threshold AN (all met AN criteria using DSM 5), receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis (n = 67) assessed the relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of each stage of the CASIAN. Thereafter chi-square and post-hoc adjusted residual analysis provided a preliminary assessment of the validity of the stages comparing the relationship between stage and treatment intensity and AN sub-types, and explored movement between stages after six months (Time 3) in a larger cohort (n = 171). Results: The CASIAN significantly distinguished between milder stages of illness (Stage 1 and 2) versus more severe stages of illness (Stages 3 and 4), and approached statistical significance in distinguishing each of the four stages from one other. CASIAN Stages were significantly associated with treatment modality and primary diagnosis, and CASIAN Stage at Time 1 was significantly associated with Stage at 6 month follow-up. Conclusions: Provisional support is provided for a staging model in AN. Larger studies with longer follow-up of cases are now needed to replicate and extend these findings and evaluate the overall utility of staging as well as optimal staging models

Using Devolution to Set the Agenda? Venue shift and the smoking ban in Scotland

This article examines the changing agendas on smoking-related issues in Scotland. It charts the methods that groups, governments and MSPs use to frame and pursue or suppress discussion of the prohibition of smoking in public places. The article presents two narratives-one which stresses ‘new politics' and the ability of groups to influence policy through Scottish Parliamentary procedures, and another which stresses Scottish Executive ‘business as usual' and presents smoking legislation as a logical progression from early ministerial commitments. A combination of narratives suggests that tobacco legislation in Scotland was by no means part of an inevitable international trend towards prohibition and this article traces the precise conditions or ‘policy windows' in which decisions take place. The discussion highlights the often unsettled nature of the devolution settlement and the ability of Scottish issues to influence UK agendas

Writhe in the Stretch-Twist-Fold Dynamo

This is an Author's Original Manuscript of an article whose final and definitive form, the Version of Record, has been published in Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics (2008) Copyright © 2008 Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/03091920802531791This article looks at the influence of writhe in the stretch-twist-fold dynamo. We consider a thin flux tube distorted by simple stretch, twist, and fold motions and calculate the helicity and energy spectra. The writhe number assists in the calculations, as it tells us how much the internal twist changes as the tube is distorted. In addition it provides a valuable diagnostic for the degree of distortion. Non mirror-symmetric dynamos typically generate magnetic helicity of one sign on large-scales and the opposite sign on small scales. The calculations presented here confirm the hypothesis that the large-scale helicity corresponds to writhe and the small scale corresponds to twist. In addition, the writhe helicity spectrum exhibits an interesting oscillatory behavior. The technique of calculating Fourier spectra for the writhe helicity may be useful in other areas of research, for example, the study of highly coiled molecules

Associations between cardiorespiratory fitness, physical activity and clustered cardiometabolic risk in children and adolescents: the HAPPY study

Clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors can occur during childhood and predisposes individuals to cardiometabolic disease. This study calculated clustered cardiometabolic risk in 100 children and adolescents aged 10-14 years (59 girls) and explored differences according to cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) levels and time spent at different physical activity (PA) intensities. CRF was determined using a maximal cycle ergometer test, and PA was assessed using accelerometry. A cardiometabolic risk score was computed as the sum of the standardised scores for waist circumference, blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio, triglycerides and glucose. Differences in clustered cardiometabolic risk between fit and unfit participants, according to previously proposed health-related threshold values, and between tertiles for PA subcomponents were assessed using ANCOVA. Clustered risk was significantly lower (p < 0.001) in the fit group (mean 1.21 ± 3.42) compared to the unfit group (mean -0.74 ± 2.22), while no differences existed between tertiles for any subcomponent of PA. Conclusion These findings suggest that CRF may have an important cardioprotective role in children and adolescents and highlights the importance of promoting CRF in youth

Predicted Auxiliary Navigation Mechanism of Peritrichously Flagellated Chemotactic Bacteria

Chemotactic movement of Escherichia coli is one of the most thoroughly studied paradigms of simple behavior. Due to significant competitive advantage conferred by chemotaxis and to high evolution rates in bacteria, the chemotaxis system is expected to be strongly optimized. Bacteria follow gradients by performing temporal comparisons of chemoeffector concentrations along their runs, a strategy which is most efficient given their size and swimming speed. Concentration differences are detected by a sensory system and transmitted to modulate rotation of flagellar motors, decreasing the probability of a tumble and reorientation if the perceived concentration change during a run is positive. Such regulation of tumble probability is of itself sufficient to explain chemotactic drift of a population up the gradient, and is commonly assumed to be the only navigation mechanism of chemotactic E. coli. Here we use computer simulations to predict existence of an additional mechanism of gradient navigation in E. coli. Based on the experimentally observed dependence of cell tumbling angle on the number of switching motors, we suggest that not only the tumbling probability but also the degree of reorientation during a tumble depend on the swimming direction along the gradient. Although the difference in mean tumbling angles up and down the gradient predicted by our model is small, it results in a dramatic enhancement of the cellular drift velocity along the gradient. We thus demonstrate a new level of optimization in E. coli chemotaxis, which arises from the switching of several flagellar motors and a resulting fine tuning of tumbling angle. Similar strategy is likely to be used by other peritrichously flagellated bacteria, and indicates yet another level of evolutionary development of bacterial chemotaxis

Who mixes with whom among men who have sex with men? Implications for modelling the HIV epidemic in southern India

In India, the identity of men who have sex with men (MSM) is closely related to the role taken in anal sex (insertive, receptive or both), but little is known about sexual mixing between identity groups. Both role segregation (taking only the insertive or receptive role) and the extent of assortative (within-group) mixing are known to affect HIV epidemic size in other settings and populations. This study explores how different possible mixing scenarios, consistent with behavioural data collected in Bangalore, south India, affect both the HIV epidemic, and the impact of a targeted intervention. Deterministic models describing HIV transmission between three MSM identity groups (mostly insertive Panthis/Bisexuals, mostly receptive Kothis/Hijras and versatile Double Deckers), were parameterised with behavioural data from Bangalore. We extended previous models of MSM role segregation to allow each of the identity groups to have both insertive and receptive acts, in differing ratios, in line with field data. The models were used to explore four different mixing scenarios ranging from assortative (maximising within-group mixing) to disassortative (minimising within-group mixing). A simple model was used to obtain insights into the relationship between the degree of within-group mixing, R0 and equilibrium HIV prevalence under different mixing scenarios. A more complex, extended version of the model was used to compare the predicted HIV prevalence trends and impact of an HIV intervention when fitted to data from Bangalore. With the simple model, mixing scenarios with increased amounts of assortative (within-group) mixing tended to give rise to a higher R0 and increased the likelihood that an epidemic would occur. When the complex model was fit to HIV prevalence data, large differences in the level of assortative mixing were seen between the fits identified using different mixing scenarios, but little difference was projected in future HIV prevalence trends. An oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention was modelled, targeted at the different identity groups. For intervention strategies targeting the receptive or receptive and versatile MSM together, the overall impact was very similar for different mixing patterns. However, for PrEP scenarios targeting insertive or versatile MSM alone, the overall impact varied considerably for different mixing scenarios; more impact was achieved with greater levels of disassortative mixing