Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

Could thermal fluctuations seed cosmic structure?

We examine the possibility that thermal, rather than quantum, fluctuations are responsible for seeding the structure of our universe. We find that while the thermalization condition leads to nearly Gaussian statistics, a Harrisson-Zeldovich spectrum for the primordial fluctuations can only be achieved in very special circumstances. These depend on whether the universe gets hotter or colder in time, while the modes are leaving the horizon. In the latter case we find a no-go theorem which can only be avoided if the fundamental degrees of freedom are not particle-like, such as in string gases near the Hagedorn phase transition. The former case is less forbidding, and we suggest two potentially successful ``warming universe'' scenarios. One makes use of the Phoenix universe, the other of ``phantom'' matter.Comment: minor corrections made, references added, matches the version accepted to PR

Collapsing granular suspensions

A 2D contact dynamics model is proposed as a microscopic description of a collapsing suspension/soil to capture the essential physical processes underlying the dynamics of generation and collapse of the system. Our physical model is compared with real data obtained from in situ measurements performed with a natural collapsing/suspension soil. We show that the shear strength behavior of our collapsing suspension/soil model is very similar to the behavior of this collapsing suspension soil, for both the unperturbed and the perturbed phases of the material.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in EPJ

Ambient particulate pollution and the world-wide prevalence of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in children: Phase One of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC)

Objectives: To investigate the effect of ambient particulate matter on variation in childhood prevalence of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema. Methods: Prevalences of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema obtained in Phase One of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) were matched with city-level estimates of residential PM10 obtained from a World Bank model. Associations were investigated using binomial regression adjusting for GNP per capita and for clustering within country. For countries with more than one centre, a two stage meta-analysis was carried out. The results were compared with a meta-analysis of published multi-centre studies. Results: Annual concentrations of PM₁₀ at city level were obtained for 105 ISAAC centres in 51 countries. After controlling for GNP per capita, there was a weak negative association between PM₁₀ and various outcomes. For severe wheeze in 13-14-year-olds, the OR for a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ was 0.92 (95 CI 0.84 to 1.00). In 24 countries with more than one centre, most summary estimates for within-country associations were weakly positive. For severe wheeze in 13-14-year-olds, the summary OR for a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ was 1.01 (0.92 to 1.10). This result was close to a summary OR of 0.99 (0.91 to 1.06) obtained from published multi-centre studies. Conclusions: Modelled estimates of particulate matter at city level are imprecise and incomplete estimates of personal exposure to ambient air pollutants. Nevertheless, our results together with those of previous multi-centre studies, suggest that urban background PM₁₀ has little or no association with the prevalence of childhood asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis or eczema either within or between countries

Patients' experiences and perceived causes of persisting discomfort following day surgery

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to describe patients' experiences and perceived causes of persisting discomfort following day surgery. Earlier research has mainly covered symptoms and signs during a recovery period of up to one month, and not dealt with patients' perceptions of what causes persisting, longer-term discomfort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study is a part from a study carried out during the period May 2006 to May 2007 with a total of 298 day surgery patients. Answers were completed by 118 patients at 48 hours, 110 at seven days and 46 at three months to one open-ended question related to discomfort after day surgery constructed as follows: <it>If you are still experiencing discomfort related to the surgery, what is the reason, in your opinion</it>? Data was processed, quantitatively and qualitatively. Descriptive, inferential, correlation and content analyses were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results suggest that patients suffer from remaining discomfort e.g. pain and wound problem, with effects on daily life following day surgery up to three months. Among patients' perceptions of <it>factors leading to discomfort </it>may be <it>wrongful or suboptimal treatment</it>, <it>type of surgery </it>or <it>insufficient access to provider/information.</it></p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results have important implications for preventing and managing discomfort at home following day surgery, and for nursing interventions to help patients handle the recovery period better.</p

G-quadruplex-binding small molecules ameliorate C9orf72 FTD/ALS pathology in vitro and in vivo

Intronic GGGGCC repeat expansions in C9orf72 are the most common known cause of frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), which are characterised by degeneration of cortical and motor neurons, respectively. Repeat expansions have been proposed to cause disease by both the repeat RNA forming foci that sequester RNA-binding proteins and through toxic dipeptide repeat proteins generated by repeat-associated non-ATG translation. GGGGCC repeat RNA folds into a G-quadruplex secondary structure, and we investigated whether targeting this structure is a potential therapeutic strategy. We performed a screen that identified three structurally related small molecules that specifically stabilise GGGGCC repeat G-quadruplex RNA We investigated their effect in C9orf72 patient iPSC-derived motor and cortical neurons and show that they significantly reduce RNA foci burden and the levels of dipeptide repeat proteins. Furthermore, they also reduce dipeptide repeat proteins and improve survival in vivo, in GGGGCC repeat-expressing Drosophila Therefore, small molecules that target GGGGCC repeat G-quadruplexes can ameliorate the two key pathologies associated with C9orf72 FTD/ALS These data provide proof of principle that targeting GGGGCC repeat G-quadruplexes has therapeutic potential

Construction and physiochemical characterisation of a multi-composite, potential oral vaccine delivery system (VDS)

An increasing human population requires a secure food supply and a cost effective, oral vaccine delivery system for livestock would help facilitate this end. Recombinant antigen adsorbed onto silica beads and coated with myristic acid, was released (∼15% (w/v)) over 24 h at pH 8.8. At pH 2, the myristic acid acted as an enteric coating, protecting the antigen from a variety of proteases. The antigen adsorbed onto silica particles, coated in myristic acid had a conserved secondary structure (measured by circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy) following its pH-triggered release. Small angle neutron scattering (SANS) was used to measure the thickness of the adsorbed antigen, finding that its adsorbed conformation was slightly greater than its solution radius of gyration, i.e. 120–160 Å. The addition of myristic acid led to a further increase in particle size, with scattering data consistent with an acid thickness slightly greater than a monolayer of fully extended alkyl chains and a degree of hydration of around 50%. Whilst adsorbed onto the silica and coated in myristic acid, the protein was stable over 14 days at 42 °C, indicating a reduced need for cold chain storage. These data indicate that further investigation is warranted into the development of this technology

Density of Common Complex Ocular Traits in the Aging Eye: Analysis of Secondary Traits in Genome-Wide Association Studies

Genetic association studies are identifying genetic risks for common complex ocular traits such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The subjects used for discovery of these loci have been largely from clinic-based, case-control studies. Typically, only the primary phenotype (e.g., AMD) being studied is systematically documented and other complex traits (e.g., affecting the eye) are largely ignored. The purpose of this study was to characterize these other or secondary complex ocular traits present in the cases and controls of clinic-based studies being used for genetic study of AMD. The records of 100 consecutive new patients (of any diagnosis) age 60 or older for which all traits affecting the eye had been recorded systematically were reviewed. The average patient had 3.5 distinct diagnoses. A subset of 10 complex traits was selected for further study because they were common and could be reliably diagnosed. The density of these 10 complex ocular traits increased by 0.017 log-traits/year (P = 0.03), ranging from a predicted 2.74 at age 60 to 4.45 at age 90. Trait-trait association was observed only between AMD and primary vitreomacular traction (P = 0.0009). Only 1% of subjects age 60 or older had no common complex traits affecting the eye. Extrapolations suggested that a study of 2000 similar subjects would have sufficient power to detect genetic association with an odds ratio of 2.0 or less for 4 of these 10 traits. In conclusion, the high prevalence of complex traits affecting the aging eye and the inherent biases in referral patterns leads to the potential for confounding by undocumented secondary traits within case-control studies. In addition to the primary trait, other common ocular phenotypes should be systematically documented in genetic association studies so that adjustments for potential trait-trait associations and other bias can be made and genetic risk variants identified in secondary analyses

An automated, broad-based, near real-time public health surveillance system using presentations to hospital Emergency Departments in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND: In a climate of concern over bioterrorism threats and emergent diseases, public health authorities are trialling more timely surveillance systems. The 2003 Rugby World Cup (RWC) provided an opportunity to test the viability of a near real-time syndromic surveillance system in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. We describe the development and early results of this largely automated system that used data routinely collected in Emergency Departments (EDs). METHODS: Twelve of 49 EDs in the Sydney metropolitan area automatically transmitted surveillance data from their existing information systems to a central database in near real-time. Information captured for each ED visit included patient demographic details, presenting problem and nursing assessment entered as free-text at triage time, physician-assigned provisional diagnosis codes, and status at departure from the ED. Both diagnoses from the EDs and triage text were used to assign syndrome categories. The text information was automatically classified into one or more of 26 syndrome categories using automated "naïve Bayes" text categorisation techniques. Automated processes were used to analyse both diagnosis and free text-based syndrome data and to produce web-based statistical summaries for daily review. An adjusted cumulative sum (cusum) was used to assess the statistical significance of trends. RESULTS: During the RWC the system did not identify any major public health threats associated with the tournament, mass gatherings or the influx of visitors. This was consistent with evidence from other sources, although two known outbreaks were already in progress before the tournament. Limited baseline in early monitoring prevented the system from automatically identifying these ongoing outbreaks. Data capture was invisible to clinical staff in EDs and did not add to their workload. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated the feasibility and potential utility of syndromic surveillance using routinely collected data from ED information systems. Key features of our system are its nil impact on clinical staff, and its use of statistical methods to assign syndrome categories based on clinical free text information. The system is ongoing, and has expanded to cover 30 EDs. Results of formal evaluations of both the technical efficiency and the public health impacts of the system will be described subsequently