Bayesian inversion for finite fault earthquake source models – II: the 2011 great Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake

We present a fully Bayesian inversion of kinematic rupture parameters for the 2011 M_w 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake. Albeit computationally expensive, this approach to kinematic source modelling has the advantage of producing an ensemble of slip models that are consistent with physical a priori constraints, realistic data uncertainties, and realistic but simplistic uncertainties in the physics of the kinematic forward model, all without being biased by non-physical regularization constraints. Combining 1 Hz kinematic GPS, static GPS offsets, seafloor geodesy and near-field and far-field tsunami data into a massively parallel Monte Carlo simulation, we construct an ensemble of samples of the posterior probability density function describing the evolution of fault rupture. We find that most of the slip is concentrated in a depth range of 10–20 km from the trench, and that slip decreases towards the trench with significant displacements at the toe of wedge occurring in just a small region. Estimates of static stress drop and rupture velocity are ambiguous. Due to the spatial compactness of the fault rupture, the duration of the entire rupture was less than approximately 150 s

The 2013 M_w 7.7 Balochistan Earthquake: Seismic Potential of an Accretionary Wedge

Great earthquakes rarely occur within active accretionary prisms, despite the intense long‐term deformation associated with the formation of these geologic structures. This paucity of earthquakes is often attributed to partitioning of deformation across multiple structures as well as aseismic deformation within and at the base of the prism (Davis et al., 1983). We use teleseismic data and satellite optical and radar imaging of the 2013 M_w 7.7 earthquake that occurred on the southeastern edge of the Makran plate boundary zone to study this unexpected earthquake. We first compute a multiple point‐source solution from W‐phase waveforms to estimate fault geometry and rupture duration and timing. We then derive the distribution of subsurface fault slip from geodetic coseismic offsets. We sample for the slip posterior probability density function using a Bayesian approach, including a full description of the data covariance and accounting for errors in the elastic structure of the crust. The rupture nucleated on a subvertical segment, branching out of the Chaman fault system, and grew into a major earthquake along a 50° north‐dipping thrust fault with significant along‐strike curvature. Fault slip propagated at an average speed of 3.0  km/s for about 180 km and is concentrated in the top 10 km with no displacement on the underlying décollement. This earthquake does not exhibit significant slip deficit near the surface, nor is there significant segmentation of the rupture. We propose that complex interaction between the subduction accommodating the Arabia–Eurasia convergence to the south and the Ornach Nal fault plate boundary between India and Eurasia resulted in the significant strain gradient observed prior to this earthquake. Convergence in this region is accommodated both along the subduction megathrust and as internal deformation of the accretionary wedge

Predictors of mortality in connective tissue disease-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension: a cohort study

Extent: 9p.Introduction: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a major cause of mortality in connective tissue disease (CTD). We sought to quantify survival and determine factors predictive of mortality in a cohort of patients with CTD-associated PAH (CTD-PAH) in the current era of advanced PAH therapy. Methods: Patients with right heart catheter proven CTD-PAH were recruited from six specialised PAH treatment centres across Australia and followed prospectively. Using survival methods including Cox proportional hazards regression, we modelled for all-cause mortality. Independent variables included demographic, clinical and hemodynamic data. Results: Among 117 patients (104 (94.9%) with systemic sclerosis), during 2.6 ± 1.8 (mean ± SD) years of follow-up from PAH diagnosis, there were 32 (27.4%) deaths. One-, two- and three-year survivals were 94%, 89% and 73%, respectively. In multiple regression analysis, higher mean right atrial pressure (mRAP) at diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.24, P = 0.007), lower baseline six-minute walk distance (HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.97, P = 0.04), higher baseline World Health Organization functional class (HR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.25 to 9.36, P = 0.04) and presence of a pericardial effusion (HR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.07 to 10.68, P = 0.04) were predictive of mortality. Warfarin (HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.78, P = 0.02) and combination PAH therapy (HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.83, P = 0.03) were protective. Conclusions: In this cohort of CTD-PAH patients, three-year survival was 73%. Independent therapeutic predictors of survival included warfarin and combination PAH therapy. Our findings suggest that anticoagulation and combination PAH therapy may improve survival in CTD-PAH. This observation merits further evaluation in randomised controlled trials.Gene-Siew Ngian, Wendy Stevens, David Prior, Eli Gabbay, Janet Roddy, Ai Tran, Robert Minson, Catherine Hill, Ken Chow, Joanne Sahhar, Susanna Proudman and Mandana Nikpou

Effect of Benzoic Acid, Myristic Acid, and Aspergillus Niger on the AME and N Retention in Grow-Finishing Pigs

An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of benzoic acid, myristic acid, and Aspergillus niger on the digestibility of DM and GE, and the concentration of DE and ME in diets fed to growing pigs. A total of 10 barrows (DNA 200 × 400, DNA; initially 75.2 ± 2.27 lb.) were allotted to a replicated 5 × 5 Latin square design with five treatments and five periods for a total of 10 replicate pigs per treatment. Pigs were individually housed in metabolic crates equipped with a feeder, drinker, and a wire mesh floor. Pigs were fed dietary treatments for a 5-day adaptation period followed by a 5-day collection period. During collection, a screen and a urine pan were installed below the floor of the crate to allow for the total and separate collection of feces and urine. A basal corn-soybean meal, wheat middlings and DDGS-based diet was formulated as a negative control and a corn soybean meal-based diet was formulated as positive control. Three additional diets were formulated by adding one source of benzoic acid, myristic acid, or Aspergillus niger to the negative control. Therefore, a total of five diets were formulated. The positive control diet had the greatest (P \u3c 0.05) ATTD of GE and DM, ME and DE compared to the negative control diet with or without feed additives. There was no evidence of difference between ATTD of DM and GE between the negative control diet and the negative control diets with either benzoic acid, myristic acid, or Aspergillus niger. However, the negative control diet containing myristic acid had increased (P \u3c 0.05) DE concentration compared to the negative control. There was a tendency for the negative control diets containing benzoic acid and Aspergillus niger to have increased (P \u3c 0.15) concentration of DE compared to the negative control diet without feed additives. Similarly, there was a tendency of increased (P \u3c 0.15) concentration of ME in diets containing added myristic acid and benzoic acid compared to the negative control diet. There was no evidence of difference (P \u3e 0.15) in ME concentration between the negative control diet with and without Aspergillus niger. The positive control diet had the greatest (P \u3c 0.05) N retention and N digestibility as percentage of intake compared to all negative control treatments. However, there was no evidence of differences between the negative control diet and the negative control treatments containing the feed additives. This data suggests that the inclusion of myristic acid and benzoic acid has the potential to increase the concentration of ME in diets with high fiber concentrations without impacting N retention

Trigonometric Regressive Spectral Analysis Reliably Maps Dynamic Changes in Baroreflex Sensitivity and Autonomic Tone: The Effect of Gender and Age

BACKGROUND: The assessment of baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) has emerged as prognostic tool in cardiology. Although available computer-assisted methods, measuring spontaneous fluctuations of heart rate and blood pressure in the time and frequency domain are easily applicable, they do not allow for quantification of BRS during cardiovascular adaption processes. This, however, seems an essential criterion for clinical application. We evaluated a novel algorithm based on trigonometric regression regarding its ability to map dynamic changes in BRS and autonomic tone during cardiovascular provocation in relation to gender and age. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We continuously recorded systemic arterial pressure, electrocardiogram and respiration in 23 young subjects (25+/-2 years) and 22 middle-aged subjects (56+/-4 years) during cardiovascular autonomic testing (metronomic breathing, Valsalva manoeuvre, head-up tilt). Baroreflex- and spectral analysis was performed using the algorithm of trigonometric regressive spectral analysis. There was an age-related decline in spontaneous BRS and high frequency oscillations of RR intervals. Changes in autonomic tone evoked by cardiovascular provocation were observed as shifts in the ratio of low to high frequency oscillations of RR intervals and blood pressure. Respiration at 0.1 Hz elicited an increase in BRS while head-up tilt and Valsalva manoeuvre resulted in a downregulation of BRS. The extent of autonomic adaption was in general more pronounced in young individuals and declined stronger with age in women than in men. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The trigonometric regressive spectral analysis reliably maps age- and gender-related differences in baroreflex- and autonomic function and is able to describe adaption processes of baroreceptor circuit during cardiovascular stimulation. Hence, this novel algorithm may be a useful screening tool to detect abnormalities in cardiovascular adaption processes even when resting values appear to be normal

Applying social influence insights to encourage climate resilient domestic water behaviour: Bridging the theory-practice gap

Water scarcity is one of the most pressing issues of our time and it is projected to increase as global demand surges and climate change limits fresh water availability. If we are to reduce water demand, it is essential that we draw on every tool in the box, including one that is underestimated and underutilised: social influence. Research from the psychological sciences demonstrates that behaviour is strongly influenced by the behaviour of others, and that social influence can be harnessed to develop cost-effective strategies to encourage climate resilient behaviour. Far less attention has been paid to investigating water-related interventions in comparison to interventions surrounding energy. In this paper we consider the application of three social influence strategies to encourage water conservation: social norms; social identity; and socially-comparative feedback. We not only review their empirical evidence base, but also offer an example of their application in the residential sector with the aim of highlighting how theoretical insights can be translated into practice. We argue that collaborations between researchers and industry are essential if we are to maximise the potential of behaviour change interventions to encourage climate resilient water behaviour

Levels of selected minerals, nitric oxide, and vitamins in aborted Sakis sheep raised under semitropical conditions

The serum levels of calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, copper, zinc and iron and of nitric oxide, retinol, and β-carotene were determined in Sakiz ewes that had experienced an abortion and in healthy controls. Ten healthy and 25 aborted Sakiz sheep were selected from Afyon zone in western Turkey. Their ages ranged between 2 and 4 years weighing between 40 and 60 kg at the time of experiment. All of the abortions occurred in October. The concentrations of retinol, β-carotene, phosphorus, and zinc were significantly lower and those of calcium and nitric oxide were increased in aborted ewes relative to healthy controls. The serum levels of iron, copper, and magnesium were not significantly different among the two groups. In conclusion, abortion is an important problem in commercially important species of ruminants in many regions in the tropics including of western Turkey. Deficiencies of retinol, β-carotene, phosphorus and zinc, and the increase of calcium and nitric oxide concentration may play an important role in the etiology of abortion in ewes. Prophylactic measures such as vitamin and mineral supplementation may be of help to prevent or reduce the incidence of abortion in sheep

Low fingertip temperature rebound measured by digital thermal monitoring strongly correlates with the presence and extent of coronary artery disease diagnosed by 64-slice multi-detector computed tomography

Previous studies showed strong correlations between low fingertip temperature rebound measured by digital thermal monitoring (DTM) during a 5 min arm-cuff induced reactive hyperemia and both the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic populations. This study evaluates the correlation between DTM and coronary artery disease (CAD) measured by CT angiography (CTA) in symptomatic patients. It also investigates the correlation between CTA and a new index of neurovascular reactivity measured by DTM. 129 patients, age 63 ± 9 years, 68% male, underwent DTM, CAC and CTA. Adjusted DTM indices in the occluded arm were calculated: temperature rebound: aTR and area under the temperature curve aTMP-AUC. DTM neurovascular reactivity (NVR) index was measured based on increased fingertip temperature in the non-occluded arm. Obstructive CAD was defined as ≥50% luminal stenosis, and normal as no stenosis and CAC = 0. Baseline fingertip temperature was not different across the groups. However, all DTM indices of vascular and neurovascular reactivity significantly decreased from normal to non-obstructive to obstructive CAD [(aTR 1.77 ± 1.18 to 1.24 ± 1.14 to 0.94 ± 0.92) (P = 0.009), (aTMP-AUC: 355.6 ± 242.4 to 277.4 ± 182.4 to 184.4 ± 171.2) (P = 0.001), (NVR: 161.5 ± 147.4 to 77.6 ± 88.2 to 48.8 ± 63.8) (P = 0.015)]. After adjusting for risk factors, the odds ratio for obstructive CAD compared to normal in the lowest versus two upper tertiles of FRS, aTR, aTMP-AUC, and NVR were 2.41 (1.02–5.93), P = 0.05, 8.67 (2.6–9.4), P = 0.001, 11.62 (5.1–28.7), P = 0.001, and 3.58 (1.09–11.69), P = 0.01, respectively. DTM indices and FRS combined resulted in a ROC curve area of 0.88 for the prediction of obstructive CAD. In patients suspected of CAD, low fingertip temperature rebound measured by DTM significantly predicted CTA-diagnosed obstructive disease

Integrating BDI agents with Agent-based simulation platforms

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is increasingly being used for exploring and supporting decision making about social science scenarios involving modelling of human agents. However existing agent-based simulation platforms (e.g., SWARM, Repast) provide limited support for the simulation of more complex cognitive agents required by such scenarios. We present a framework that allows Belief-Desire Intention (BDI) cognitive agents to be embedded in an ABM system. Architecturally, this means that the "brains" of an agent can be modelled in the BDI system in the usual way, while the "body" exists in the ABM system. The architecture is exible in that the ABM can still have non-BDI agents in the simulation, and the BDI-side can have agents that do not have a physical counterpart (such as an organisation). The framework addresses a key integration challenge of coupling event-based BDI systems, with time-stepped ABM systems. Our framework is modular and supports integration off-the-shelf BDI systems with off-the-shelf ABM systems. The framework is Open Source, and all integrations and applications are available for use by the modelling community

Antiviral activity of the mineralocorticoid receptor NR3C2 against Herpes simplex virus Type 1 (HSV-1) infection

Abstract Analysis of a genome-scale RNA interference screen of host factors affecting herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) revealed that the mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) inhibits HSV-1 replication. As a ligand-activated transcription factor the MR regulates sodium transport and blood pressure in the kidney in response to aldosterone, but roles have recently been elucidated for the MR in other cellular processes. Here, we show that the MR and other members of the mineralocorticoid signalling pathway including HSP90 and FKBP4, possess anti-viral activity against HSV-1 independent of their effect on sodium transport, as shown by sodium channel inhibitors. Expression of the MR is upregulated upon infection in an interferon (IFN) and viral transcriptional activator VP16-dependent fashion. Furthermore, the MR and VP16, together with the cellular co-activator Oct-1, transactivate the hormone response element (HRE) present in the MR promoter and those of its transcriptional targets. As the MR induces IFN expression, our data suggests the MR is involved in a positive feedback loop that controls HSV-1 infection