Time-varying Learning and Content Analytics via Sparse Factor Analysis

We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept knowledge over time, (ii) analyzes learner concept knowledge state transitions (induced by interacting with learning resources, such as textbook sections, lecture videos, etc, or the forgetting effect), and (iii) estimates the content organization and intrinsic difficulty of the assessment questions. These quantities are estimated solely from binary-valued (correct/incorrect) graded learner response data and a summary of the specific actions each learner performs (e.g., answering a question or studying a learning resource) at each time instance. Experimental results on two online course datasets demonstrate that SPARFA-Trace is capable of tracing each learner's concept knowledge evolution over time, as well as analyzing the quality and content organization of learning resources, the question-concept associations, and the question intrinsic difficulties. Moreover, we show that SPARFA-Trace achieves comparable or better performance in predicting unobserved learner responses than existing collaborative filtering and knowledge tracing approaches for personalized education

Excitability scores of goats administered ascorbic acid and transported during hot-dry conditions

In this study, we investigated the effect of ascorbic acid (AA) administration on goat excitability due to transportation. Ten goats administered AA (p.o.) at 100 mg/kg of body weight before transportation served as the experimental group, and seven goats administered only 10ml/kg of sterile water (p.o.) served as controls. Excitability scores were recorded for each goat; when weighed, before, immediately after, and 3 h after 8 h of transportation. A score of one to four was allocated to each goat; higher scores represent greater excitability. Immediately after transportation, excitability scores decreased significantly, especially those of control goats (p < 0.001). At 3 h post-transportation, the excitability scores of animals in the experimental group were not significantly (p>0.05) different from their pre-transportation normal values, whereas those of control goats were significantly lower (p < 0.01). The correlation i.e. the relationship between excitability score values and percent excitability (percentage of goat with particular excitability score) for different excitability score group 3 h post-transportation was positive and highly significant (p < 0.001), in both experimental and control goats. Our results indicate that road transportation induces considerable stress (depression) in goats as evidenced by a lower excitability score post-transportation. Moreover, the administration of AA pre-transportation facilitated the transition from a state of depression to excitation. In conclusion, AA administration to animals prior to transportation may ameliorate the depression often encountered after road transportation

Distinguishing Asthma Phenotypes Using Machine Learning Approaches.

Asthma is not a single disease, but an umbrella term for a number of distinct diseases, each of which are caused by a distinct underlying pathophysiological mechanism. These discrete disease entities are often labelled as asthma endotypes. The discovery of different asthma subtypes has moved from subjective approaches in which putative phenotypes are assigned by experts to data-driven ones which incorporate machine learning. This review focuses on the methodological developments of one such machine learning technique-latent class analysis-and how it has contributed to distinguishing asthma and wheezing subtypes in childhood. It also gives a clinical perspective, presenting the findings of studies from the past 5 years that used this approach. The identification of true asthma endotypes may be a crucial step towards understanding their distinct pathophysiological mechanisms, which could ultimately lead to more precise prevention strategies, identification of novel therapeutic targets and the development of effective personalized therapies

Semantics for probabilistic programming: higher-order functions, continuous distributions, and soft constraints

We study the semantic foundation of expressive probabilistic programming languages, that support higher-order functions, continuous distributions, and soft constraints (such as Anglican, Church, and Venture). We define a metalanguage (an idealised version of Anglican) for probabilistic computation with the above features, develop both operational and denotational semantics, and prove soundness, adequacy, and termination. They involve measure theory, stochastic labelled transition systems, and functor categories, but admit intuitive computational readings, one of which views sampled random variables as dynamically allocated read-only variables. We apply our semantics to validate nontrivial equations underlying the correctness of certain compiler optimisations and inference algorithms such as sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The language enables defining probability distributions on higher-order functions, and we study their properties

CD83 Modulates B Cell Function In Vitro: Increased IL-10 and Reduced Ig Secretion by CD83Tg B Cells

The murine transmembrane glycoprotein CD83 is an important regulator for both thymic T cell maturation and peripheral T cell responses. Recently, we reported that CD83 also has a function on B cells: Ubiquitous transgenic (Tg) expression of CD83 interfered with the immunoglobulin (Ig) response to infectious agents and to T cell dependent as well as T cell independent model antigen immunization. Here we compare the function of CD83Tg B cells that overexpress CD83 and CD83 mutant (CD83mu) B cells that display a drastically reduced CD83 expression. Correlating with CD83 expression, the basic as well as the lipopolysaccharide (LPS) induced expression of the activation markers CD86 and MHC-II are significantly increased in CD83Tg B cells and reciprocally decreased in CD83mu B cells. Wild-type B cells rapidly upregulate CD83 within three hours post BCR or TLR engagement by de novo protein synthesis. The forced premature overexpression of CD83 on the CD83Tg B cells results in reduced calcium signaling, reduced Ig secretion and a reciprocally increased IL-10 production upon in vitro activation. This altered phenotype is mediated by CD83 expressed on the B cells themselves, since it is observed in the absence of accessory cells. In line with this finding, purified CD83mu B cells displayed a reduced IL-10 production and slightly increased Ig secretion upon LPS stimulation in vitro. Taken together, our data strongly suggest that CD83 is expressed by B cells upon activation and contributes to the regulation of B cell function

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.The author acknowledges an EPSRC grant EP/I036575/1, the DARPA PPAML programme, a Google Focused Research Award for the Automatic Statistician and support from Microsoft Research.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v521/n7553/full/nature14541.html#abstract

Generative Embedding for Model-Based Classification of fMRI Data

Decoding models, such as those underlying multivariate classification algorithms, have been increasingly used to infer cognitive or clinical brain states from measures of brain activity obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The practicality of current classifiers, however, is restricted by two major challenges. First, due to the high data dimensionality and low sample size, algorithms struggle to separate informative from uninformative features, resulting in poor generalization performance. Second, popular discriminative methods such as support vector machines (SVMs) rarely afford mechanistic interpretability. In this paper, we address these issues by proposing a novel generative-embedding approach that incorporates neurobiologically interpretable generative models into discriminative classifiers. Our approach extends previous work on trial-by-trial classification for electrophysiological recordings to subject-by-subject classification for fMRI and offers two key advantages over conventional methods: it may provide more accurate predictions by exploiting discriminative information encoded in ‘hidden’ physiological quantities such as synaptic connection strengths; and it affords mechanistic interpretability of clinical classifications. Here, we introduce generative embedding for fMRI using a combination of dynamic causal models (DCMs) and SVMs. We propose a general procedure of DCM-based generative embedding for subject-wise classification, provide a concrete implementation, and suggest good-practice guidelines for unbiased application of generative embedding in the context of fMRI. We illustrate the utility of our approach by a clinical example in which we classify moderately aphasic patients and healthy controls using a DCM of thalamo-temporal regions during speech processing. Generative embedding achieves a near-perfect balanced classification accuracy of 98% and significantly outperforms conventional activation-based and correlation-based methods. This example demonstrates how disease states can be detected with very high accuracy and, at the same time, be interpreted mechanistically in terms of abnormalities in connectivity. We envisage that future applications of generative embedding may provide crucial advances in dissecting spectrum disorders into physiologically more well-defined subgroups

Phenotypic Characterization of EIF2AK4 Mutation Carriers in a Large Cohort of Patients Diagnosed Clinically With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare disease with an emerging genetic basis. Heterozygous mutations in the gene encoding the bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2 (BMPR2) are the commonest genetic cause of PAH, whereas biallelic mutations in the eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 alpha kinase 4 gene (EIF2AK4) are described in pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis. Here, we determine the frequency of these mutations and define the genotype-phenotype characteristics in a large cohort of patients diagnosed clinically with PAH. METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing was performed on DNA from patients with idiopathic and heritable PAH and with pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis recruited to the National Institute of Health Research BioResource-Rare Diseases study. Heterozygous variants in BMPR2 and biallelic EIF2AK4 variants with a minor allele frequency of <1:10 000 in control data sets and predicted to be deleterious (by combined annotation-dependent depletion, PolyPhen-2, and sorting intolerant from tolerant predictions) were identified as potentially causal. Phenotype data from the time of diagnosis were also captured. RESULTS: Eight hundred sixty-four patients with idiopathic or heritable PAH and 16 with pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis were recruited. Mutations in BMPR2 were identified in 130 patients (14.8%). Biallelic mutations in EIF2AK4 were identified in 5 patients with a clinical diagnosis of pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis. Furthermore, 9 patients with a clinical diagnosis of PAH carried biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations. These patients had a reduced transfer coefficient for carbon monoxide (Kco; 33% [interquartile range, 30%-35%] predicted) and younger age at diagnosis (29 years; interquartile range, 23-38 years) and more interlobular septal thickening and mediastinal lymphadenopathy on computed tomography of the chest compared with patients with PAH without EIF2AK4 mutations. However, radiological assessment alone could not accurately identify biallelic EIF2AK4 mutation carriers. Patients with PAH with biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations had a shorter survival. CONCLUSIONS: Biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations are found in patients classified clinically as having idiopathic and heritable PAH. These patients cannot be identified reliably by computed tomography, but a low Kco and a young age at diagnosis suggests the underlying molecular diagnosis. Genetic testing can identify these misclassified patients, allowing appropriate management and early referral for lung transplantation