British foreign policy towards Latin America in the twenty-first century:Assessing the “Canning Agenda"

In November 2010, the then British Foreign Secretary William Hague delivered Canning House's annual lecture on the topic of Britain's relations with Latin America. In launching the so-called ‘Canning Agenda’, Hague pledged to ‘halt the decline in Britain's diplomatic presence in Latin America’. ‘It is now time’, Hague went on, ‘for an advance to begin’. This article represents the first scholarly analysis of this policy. In particular, it assesses British efforts to enhance its economic ties with the countries of Latin America; the status granted to Latin America in Britain's strategic world-view in the post-Brexit era; the impact on Britain of other external powers in the region; and the political relationships between Britain and the countries of Latin America. The article draws on interviews with the key policy-makers involved in the Canning Agenda, including William Hague, Sir Hugo Swire, Jeremy Browne, and several other officials and diplomats from Britain and throughout Latin America. It concludes that while an identifiable effort to enhance Britain's economic and political standing in Latin America is discernible since 2010, major impediments to achieving this goal persist across the range of areas explored

Depressive symptoms in asymptomatic stage B heart failure with Type II diabetic mellitus.

BackgroundThe presence of concomitant Type II diabetic mellitus (T2DM) and depressive symptoms adversely affects individuals with symptomatic heart failure (HF).HypothesisIn presymptomatic stage B HF, this study hypothesized the presence of greater inflammation and depressive symptoms in T2DM as compared to non-T2DM Stage B patients.MethodsThis cross-sectional study examined clinical parameters, inflammatory biomarkers, and depressive symptoms in 349 T2DM and non-T2DM men with asymptomatic stage B HF (mean age 66.4 years ±10.1; range 30-91).ResultsFewer diabetic HF patients had left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (P < .05) although more had LV diastolic dysfunction (P < .001). A higher percentage of T2DM HF patients were taking ACE-inhibitors, beta-blockers, calcium channel blockers, statins, and diuretics (P values < .05). T2DM HF patients had higher circulating levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) (P < .01), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (P < .01), and soluble ST2 (sST2) (P < .01) and reported more somatic/affective depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory II) (P < .05) but not cognitive/affective depressive symptoms (P = .20). Among all patients, in a multiple regression analysis predicting presence of somatic/affective depressive symptoms, sST2 (P = .026), IL-6 (P = .010), B-type natriuretic peptide (P = .016), and sleep (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index [P < .001]) were significant predictors (overall model F = 15.39, P < .001, adjusted R2 = .207).ConclusionsSomatic/affective but not cognitive/affective depressive symptoms are elevated in asymptomatic HF patients with T2DM patients. Linkages with elevated inflammatory and cardiac relevant biomarkers suggest shared pathophysiological mechanisms among T2DM HF patients with somatic depression, and these conditions are responsive to routine interventions, including behavioral. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Deeper, Wider, Sharper: Next-Generation Ground-Based Gravitational-Wave Observations of Binary Black Holes

Next-generation observations will revolutionize our understanding of binary black holes and will detect new sources, such as intermediate-mass black holes. Primary science goals include: Discover binary black holes throughout the observable Universe; Reveal the fundamental properties of black holes; Uncover the seeds of supermassive black holes.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, White Paper Submitted to Astro2020 (2020 Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey) by GWIC 3G Science Case Team (GWIC: Gravitational Wave International Committee

Estimating the Holdout Problem in Land Assembly

The Supreme Court's recent decision in Kelo v. New London allows the use of eminent domain to facilitate private economic development. While the court's condition for allowing takings was highly expansive, there may be a market failure that warrants state intervention when parcels of land need to be combined for redevelopment. The collective action or strategic holdout problem associated with land assembly may limit redevelopment of older communities when one or more existing owners seek to capture a disproportionate share of the potential surplus. The problem may be compounded by landowners' uncertainty as to the true value of the expected surplus to be divided (Eckart, 1985; Strange, 1995). At the same time, developers may attempt to disguise the assemblage through the use of straw purchasers. This paper employs administrative Geographic Information System and assessor data from Seattle, Washington, to identify lots that were ultimately assembled. The paper then matches them to their pre-assembly sales. Controlling for lot and existing structure characteristics and census tract-year fixed effects, I find that land bought in the process of a successful assembly commands an 18 percent premium. Consistent with theory, this premium falls with a parcel's relative size in the assemblage. I also find some evidence that parcels toward the center of the development may command a larger premium than those at the edge, suggesting that developers retain or are perceived to retain some design flexibility

Rationale and design of the randomized, controlled early valve replacement guided by biomarkers of left ventricular decompensation in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis (EVOLVED) trial

Background: The optimal timing of aortic valve replacement in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis is uncertain. Replacement fibrosis, as assessed by midwall (nonischemic) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, is an irreversible marker of left ventricular decompensation in aortic stenosis. Once established, it progresses rapidly and is associated with poor long-term prognosis in a dose-dependent manner. // Trial design: The objective of this multicenter prospective randomized controlled trial is to determine whether early aortic valve replacement in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis can improve the adverse prognosis associated with midwall LGE. Patients will be screened for likelihood of having LGE with electrocardiography or high-sensitivity troponin I. Those at high risk will proceed to CMR imaging. Approximately 400 patients with midwall LGE will be randomized 1:1 to early valve replacement or routine care. Those who do not exhibit midwall LGE will continue with routine care and be randomized to a study registry or no further follow-up. Follow-up will be annual for approximately 3 years until the number of required outcome events is achieved. The primary endpoint is a composite of all-cause mortality and unplanned aortic stenosis–related hospitalization. The expected event rate is 25.0% in the routine care arm and 13.4% in the early intervention arm over the first 2 years; 88 observed primary outcome events will give 90% power at 5% significance level. Key secondary endpoints include all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, stroke, and symptomatic status. // Conclusion: The EVOLVED trial is the first multicenter randomized controlled trial to compare early aortic valve replacement to routine care in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis and midwall LGE

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %

Be prepared: communism and the politics of scouting in 1950s Britain

This article examines the exposure, and in some cases dismissal, of Boy Scouts who belonged or sympathised with the Young Communist League in Britain during the early 1950s. A focus on the rationale and repercussions of the organisation's approach and attitudes towards ‘Red Scouts’ found within their ‘ranks’ extends our understanding of youth movements and their often complex and conflicting ideological foundations. In particular, the post-World War Two period presented significant challenges to these spaces of youth work in terms of broader social and political change in Britain. An analysis of the politics of scouting in relation to Red Scouts questions not only the assertion that British McCarthyism was ‘silent’, but also brings young people firmly into focus as part of a more everyday politics of communism in British society

External validation and recalibration of an incidental meningioma prognostic model - IMPACT: protocol for an international multicentre retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Due to the increased use of CT and MRI, the prevalence of incidental findings on brain scans is increasing. Meningioma, the most common primary brain tumour, is a frequently encountered incidental finding, with an estimated prevalence of 3/1000. The management of incidental meningioma varies widely with active clinical-radiological monitoring being the most accepted method by clinicians. Duration of monitoring and time intervals for assessment, however, are not well defined. To this end, we have recently developed a statistical model of progression risk based on single-centre retrospective data. The model Incidental Meningioma: Prognostic Analysis Using Patient Comorbidity and MRI Tests (IMPACT) employs baseline clinical and imaging features to categorise the patient with an incidental meningioma into one of three risk groups: low, medium and high risk with a proposed active monitoring strategy based on the risk and temporal trajectory of progression, accounting for actuarial life expectancy. The primary aim of this study is to assess the external validity of this model. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: IMPACT is a retrospective multicentre study which will aim to include 1500 patients with an incidental intracranial meningioma, powered to detect a 10% progression risk. Adult patients ≥16 years diagnosed with an incidental meningioma between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2010 will be included. Clinical and radiological data will be collected longitudinally until the patient reaches one of the study endpoints: intervention (surgery, stereotactic radiosurgery or fractionated radiotherapy), mortality or last date of follow-up. Data will be uploaded to an online Research Electronic Data Capture database with no unique identifiers. External validity of IMPACT will be tested using established statistical methods. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Local institutional approval at each participating centre will be required. Results of the study will be reported through peer-reviewed articles and conferences and disseminated to participating centres, patients and the public using social media