Model confirmation in climate economics

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century

A review on impedimetric immunosensors for pathogen and biomarker detection

Since the discovery of antibiotics in the first quarter of the twentieth century, their use has been the principal approach to treat bacterial infection. Modernized medicine such as cancer therapy, organ transplantation or advanced major surgeries require effective antibiotics to manage bacterial infections. However, the irresponsible use of antibiotics along with the lack of development has led to the emergence of antimicrobial resistance which is considered a serious global threat due to the rise of multidrug-resistant bacteria (Wang et al. in Antibiotic resistance: a rundown of a global crisis, pp. 1645–1658, 2018). Currently employed diagnostics techniques are microscopy, colony counting, ELISA, PCR, RT-PCR, surface-enhanced Raman scattering and others. These techniques provide satisfactory selectivity and sensitivity (Joung et al. in Sens Actuators B Chem 161:824–831, 2012). Nevertheless, they demand specialized personnel and expensive and sophisticated machinery which can be labour-intensive and time-consuming, (Malvano et al. in Sensors (Switzerland) 18:1–11, 2018; Mantzila et al. in Anal Chem 80:1169–1175, 2008). To get around these problems, new technologies such as biosensing and lab-on-a-chip devices have emerged in the last two decades. Impedimetric immunosensors function by applying electrochemical impedance spectroscopy to a biosensor platform using antibodies or other affinity proteins such as Affimers (Tiede et al. in Elife 6(c):1–35, 2017) or other binding proteins (Weiss et al. in Electrochim Acta 50:4248–4256, 2005) as bioreceptors, which provide excellent sensitivity and selectivity. Pre-enrichment steps are not required and this allows miniaturization and low-cost. In this review different types of impedimetric immunosensors are reported according to the type of electrode and their base layer materials, either self-assembled monolayers or polymeric layers, composition and functionalization for different types of bacteria, viruses, fungi and disease biomarkers. Additionally, novel protein scaffolds, both antibody derived and non-antibody derived, used to specifically target the analyte are considered

Overview study of Space Power Technologies for the advanced energetics program

Space power technologies are reviewed to determine the state-of-the-art and to identify advanced or novel concepts which promise large increases in performance. The potential for incresed performance is judged relative to benchmarks based on technologies which have been flight tested. Space power technology concepts selected for their potentially high performance are prioritized in a list of R & D topical recommendations for the NASA program on Advanced Energetics. The technology categories studied are solar collection, nuclear power sources, energy conversion, energy storage, power transmission, and power processing. The emphasis is on electric power generation in space for satellite on board electric power, for electric propulsion, or for beamed power to spacecraft. Generic mission categories such as low Earth orbit missions and geosynchronous orbit missions are used to distinguish general requirements placed on the performance of power conversion technology. Each space power technology is judged on its own merits without reference to specific missions or power systems. Recommendations include 31 space power concepts which span the entire collection of technology categories studied and represent the critical technologies needed for higher power, lighter weight, more efficient power conversion in space

Effects of alternative forages on nitrate leaching under intensive sheep grazing

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Geographies of authority

This is the final version. Available on open access from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordWe propose a geography that pluralises the sites, practices, and politics of authority. We defend an approach that tracks less perceptible forms of authority emerging through everyday micropolitics and experimental practices. In contrast to dominant definitions of authority as institutionalized legitimate power, we propose a definition of authority as a relation of guidance emerging from recognition of inequalities in access to truth, experience, or objectivity. Analysing four intersecting areas of authority (algorithmic, experiential, expert, and participatory authority), we propose analyses that trace authority’s affective force, and which address the tension between, but also mutual constitution of, authority and equality

Single-Item Measurement of Suicidal Behaviors: Validity and Consequences of Misclassification

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Although research has made strides in better defining suicidal behaviors, there has been less focus on accurate measurement. Currently, the widespread use of self-report, single-item questions to assess suicide ideation, plans and attempts may contribute to measurement problems and misclassification. We examined the validity of single-item measurement and the potential for statistical errors. Over 1,500 participants completed an online survey containing single-item questions regarding a history of suicidal behaviors, followed by questions with more precise language, multiple response options and narrative responses to examine the validity of single-item questions. We also conducted simulations to test whether common statistical tests are robust against the degree of misclassification produced by the use of single-items. We found that 11.3% of participants that endorsed a single-item suicide attempt measure engaged in behavior that would not meet the standard definition of a suicide attempt. Similarly, 8.8% of those who endorsed a single-item measure of suicide ideation endorsed thoughts that would not meet standard definitions of suicide ideation. Statistical simulations revealed that this level of misclassification substantially decreases statistical power and increases the likelihood of false conclusions from statistical tests. Providing a wider range of response options for each item reduced the misclassification rate by approximately half. Overall, the use of single-item, self-report questions to assess the presence of suicidal behaviors leads to misclassification, increasing the likelihood of statistical decision errors. Improving the measurement of suicidal behaviors is critical to increase understanding and prevention of suicide

Transmogrifying Fuzzy Vortices

We show that the construction of vortex solitons of the noncommutative Abelian-Higgs model can be extended to a critically coupled gauged linear sigma model with Fayet-Illiopolous D-terms. Like its commutative counterpart, this fuzzy linear sigma model has a rich spectrum of BPS solutions. We offer an explicit construction of the degree$-k$ static semilocal vortex and study in some detail the infinite coupling limit in which it descends to a degree$-k$ \C\Pk^{N} instanton. This relation between the fuzzy vortex and noncommutative lump is used to suggest an interpretation of the noncommutative sigma model soliton as tilted D-strings stretched between an NS5-brane and a stack of D3-branes in type IIB superstring theory.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, LaTeX(JHEP3