Ecological aspects of the substrate and water relations of deciduous and evergreen plant forms in the western Karoo

The principle aim of this work was to ascertain the relative importance of water and nutrient supply in determining the success of deciduous and evergreen plant forms on two main substrate types in the Worcester-Robertson valley, situated in the Succulent Karoo Biome. The substrate types selected for study represent soils of zoogenic soil mounds (locally termed "heuweltjies", and often referred to in the literature as "Mirna-like" mounds), and soils immediately adjacent to and surrounding the soil mounds. The distribution of deciduous and evergreen plant forms in the Worcester-Robertson valley was analys~d relative to the selected substrate types. Foliar elemental concentrations of four selected species growing on both substrates at five separate sites within the valley were determined. Also, the patterns of seasonal water stress exhibited by three deciduous and five evergreen non-succulent woody perennials growing in both substrates were investigated on high radiation (equator-facing) and low radiation (pole-facing) slopes at one intensive study site, the Worcester Veld Reserve

Exploring the significance of land-cover change in South Africa

Changing land cover is a phenomenon that is growing in magnitude and significance, both globally1 and in South Africa2 . Changes in land cover include the conversion of natural vegetation to agricultural crops and forest plantations, changes to natural vegetation through bush encroachment and overgrazing, soil erosion, invasion by alien plant species, and accelerating urbanisation. Land-cover changes increasingly relate to climate and atmospheric changes in ways that are currently poorly understood but potentially significant, especially in terms of compromising or enhancing the delivery of vital ecosystem services from rangelands, agricultural croplands, water catchments and conservation areas. Land-cover change is being studied in different ways, and at different scales, by ecologists, plant physiologists, applied biologists and social scientists. A core group of scientists has recently formed the Land Cover Change Consortium (LCCC), which aims to begin integrating the results of the varied approaches to studying land-cover change, and to guide future research directions, with a view to building a better science base for informing policy and management decision-making in conservation, agriculture and environmental management. The group has developed a simple conceptual outline that links field experiments, observation and monitoring, modelling and prediction of land-cover change (Figure 1), and is currently developing a funding base to support collaboration in addressing fundamental questions about how ecosystems might change in the coming decades, in training new graduates, and in communicating effectively with policymakers. The LCCC hopes to provide a theoretical and practical multidisciplinary platform for scientific collaboration on global change issues that also includes different stakeholder groups and contributes to policy and decision-making. Multidisciplinary collaboration is notoriously challenging, but holds great promise for novel insights

How Climate Extremes Influence Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Performance and Uncertainty

Rainfall-runoff models are frequently used for assessing climate risks by predicting changes in streamflow and other hydrological processes due to anticipated anthropogenic climate change, climate variability, and land management. Historical observations are commonly used to calibrate empirically the performance of conceptual hydrological mechanisms. As a result, calibration procedures are limited when extrapolated to novel climate conditions under future scenarios. In this paper, rainfall-runoff model performance and the simulated catchment hydrological processes were explored using the JAMS/J2000 model for the Berg River catchment in South Africa to evaluate the model in the tails of the current distribution of climatic conditions. An evolutionary multi-objective search algorithm was used to develop sets of parameters which best simulate “wet” and “dry” periods, providing the upper and lower bounds for a temporal uncertainty analysis approach to identify variables which are affected by these climate extremes. Variables most affected included soil-water storage and timing of interflow and groundwater flow, emerging as the overall dampening of the simulated hydrograph. Previous modeling showed that the JAMS/J2000 model provided a “good” simulation for periods where the yearly long-term mean precipitation shortfall was 0.7) during “wet” periods using parameters from a long-term calibration, “wet” parameters were not recommended for the Berg River catchment, but could play a large role in tropical climates. The results of this study are likely transferrable to other conceptual rainfall/runoff models, but may differ for various climates. As greater climate variability drives hydrological changes around the world, future empirically-based hydrological projections need to evaluate assumptions regarding storage and the simulated hydrological processes, to enhanced climate risk management

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Niches of Restionaceae Species in Jonkershoek, South Africa

The Restionaceae species of the Fynbos biome is part of the Cape Floristic Kingdom is threatened by urbanization, agricultural expansion, groundwater extraction, and climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to assess and monitor the Restionaceae species under the impact of climate change. South Africa is a semi-arid environment, and hydrological factors are the main variables in the determination of species niches. This study investigates the microclimate at Jonkershoek, and examines the impact of climate change to the plant species distribution, thus creating shifts in the hydrological niche. This study generates its own unique microclimate hydrological datasets for modelling species niche. The Restionaceae species and their hydrological niche at the Jonkershoek study area are assessed under future climate change scenario, at a microclimatic level. It provided evidence regarding the importance of the study to understanding the climate change impacts on hydrological niche and on species richness

A socio-ecological approach for identifying and contextualising spatial ecosystem-based adaptation priorities at the sub-national level

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world

Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report

South Africa is wrestling with increasing climate change impacts and how to respond. The 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report synthesises the latest evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and what this means for climate-resilient development. In this commentary, South African authors on the Report reflect on its key findings and the implications for the country. The commentary highlights challenges and opportunities for cities, the food-water-energy-nature nexus, knowledge and capacity strengthening (which includes climate services, climate change literacy, and indigenous and local knowledge), climate finance, equity, justice and social protection, and climate-resilient development pathways. The piece closes with a reflection on research gaps requiring attention and the importance of urgently ramping up climate action to secure a liveable future for all South Africans

An operational definition of the biome for global change research

CITATION: Conradi, T. et al. 2020. An operational definition of the biome for global change research. New Phytologist, 227:1294–1306, doi:10.1111/nph.16580.The original publication is available at https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.comBiomes are constructs for organising knowledge on the structure and functioning of the world’s ecosystems, and serve as useful units for monitoring how the biosphere responds to anthropogenic drivers, including climate change. The current practice of delimiting biomes relies on expert knowledge. Recent studies have questioned the value of such biome maps for comparative ecology and global-change research, partly due to their subjective origin. Here we propose a flexible method for developing biome maps objectively. The method uses range modelling of several thousands of plant species to reveal spatial attractors for different growth-form assemblages that define biomes. The workflow is illustrated using distribution data from 23 500 African plant species. In an example application, we create a biome map for Africa and use the fitted species models to project biome shifts. In a second example, we map gradients of growth-form suitability that can be used to identify sites for comparative ecology. This method provides a flexible framework that (1) allows a range of biome types to be defined according to user needs and (2) enables projections of biome changes that emerge purely from the individualistic responses of plant species to environmental changes.Publisher's versio

Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa

In this paper we review current approaches and recent advances in research on climate impacts and adaptation in South Africa. South Africa has a well-developed earth system science research program that underpins the climate change scenarios developed for the southern African region. Established research on the biophysical impacts of climate change on key sectors (water, agriculture, and biodiversity) integrates the climate change scenarios but further research is needed in a number of areas, such as the climate impacts on cities and the built environment. National government has developed a National Climate Change Response White Paper, but this has yet to translate into policy that mainstreams adaptation in everyday practice and longer-term planning in all spheres and levels of government. A national process to scope long-term adaptation scenarios is underway, focusing on cross-sectoral linkages in adaptation responses at a national level. Adaptation responses are emerging in certain sectors. Some notable city-scale and project-based adaptation responses have been implemented, but institutional challenges persist. In addition, a number of knowledge gaps remain in relation to the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. A particular need is to develop South Africa's capacity to undertake integrated assessments of climate change that can support climate-resilient development planning