Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state

Significantly lower anti-Leishmania IgG responses in Sudanese versus Indian visceral leishmaniasis.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a widely distributed systemic disease caused by infection with the Leishmania donovani complex (L. donovani and L. infantum), is almost always fatal if symptomatic and untreated. A rapid point-of-care diagnostic test for anti-Leishmania antibodies, the rK39-immunochromatographic test (rK39-ICT), has high sensitivity and specificity in South Asia but is less sensitive in East Africa. One of the underlying reasons may be continent-specific molecular diversity in the rK39 antigen within the L. donovani complex. However, a second reason may be differences in specific IgG anti-Leishmania levels in patients from different geographical regions, either due to variable antigenicity or immunological response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We determined IgG titres of Indian and Sudanese VL patients against whole cell lysates of Indian and Sudanese L. donovani strains. Indian VL patients had significantly higher IgG titres against both L. donovani strains compared to Sudanese VL patients (p<0.0001). Mean reciprocal log10 50% end-point titres (1/log10t50) were i) 3.80 and 3.88 for Indian plasma and ii) 2.13 and 2.09 for Sudanese plasma against Indian and Sudanese antigen respectively (p<0.0001). Overall, the Indian VL patients therefore showed a 46.8-61.7 -fold higher mean ELISA titre than the Sudanese VL patients. The higher IgG titres occurred in children (<16 years old) and adults of either sex from India (mean 1/log10t50: 3.60-4.15) versus Sudan (mean 1/log10t50: 1.88-2.54). The greatest difference in IgG responses was between male Indian and Sudanese VL patients of ≥ 16 years old (mean 1/log10t50: 4.15 versus 1.99 = 144-fold (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Anti-Leishmania IgG responses among VL patients in Sudan were significantly lower than in India; this may be due to chronic malnutrition with Zn(2+) deficiency, or variable antigenicity and capacity to generate IgG responses to Leishmania antigens. Such differential anti-Leishmania IgG levels may contribute to lower sensitivity of the rK39-ICT in East Africa

CRISPR-Cas9 screens in human cells and primary neurons identify modifiers of C9ORF72 dipeptide-repeat-protein toxicity.

Hexanucleotide-repeat expansions in the C9ORF72 gene are the most common cause of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia (c9ALS/FTD). The nucleotide-repeat expansions are translated into dipeptide-repeat (DPR) proteins, which are aggregation prone and may contribute to neurodegeneration. We used the CRISPR-Cas9 system to perform genome-wide gene-knockout screens for suppressors and enhancers of C9ORF72 DPR toxicity in human cells. We validated hits by performing secondary CRISPR-Cas9 screens in primary mouse neurons. We uncovered potent modifiers of DPR toxicity whose gene products function in nucleocytoplasmic transport, the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), proteasome, RNA-processing pathways, and chromatin modification. One modifier, TMX2, modulated the ER-stress signature elicited by C9ORF72 DPRs in neurons and improved survival of human induced motor neurons from patients with C9ORF72 ALS. Together, our results demonstrate the promise of CRISPR-Cas9 screens in defining mechanisms of neurodegenerative diseases

Outcome of ATP-based tumor chemosensitivity assay directed chemotherapy in heavily pre-treated recurrent ovarian carcinoma

BACKGROUND: We wished to evaluate the clinical response following ATP-Tumor Chemosensitivity Assay (ATP-TCA) directed salvage chemotherapy in a series of UK patients with advanced ovarian cancer. The results are compared with that of a similar assay used in a different country in terms of evaluability and clinical endpoints. METHODS: From November 1998 to November 2001, 46 patients with pre-treated, advanced ovarian cancer were given a total of 56 courses of chemotherapy based on in-vitro ATP-TCA responses obtained from fresh tumor samples or ascites. Forty-four patients were evaluable for results. Of these, 18 patients had clinically platinum resistant disease (relapse < 6 months after first course of chemotherapy). There was evidence of cisplatin resistance in 31 patients from their first ATP-TCA. Response to treatment was assessed by radiology, clinical assessment and tumor marker level (CA 125). RESULTS: The overall response rate was 59% (33/56) per course of chemotherapy, including 12 complete responses, 21 partial responses, 6 with stable disease, and 15 with progressive disease. Two patients were not evaluable for response having received just one cycle of chemotherapy: if these were excluded the response rate is 61%. Fifteen patients are still alive. Median progression free survival (PFS) was 6.6 months per course of chemotherapy; median overall survival (OAS) for each patient following the start of TCA-directed therapy was 10.4 months (95% confidence interval 7.9-12.8 months). CONCLUSION: The results show similar response rates to previous studies using ATP-TCA directed therapy in recurrent ovarian cancer. The assay shows high evaluability and this study adds weight to the reproducibility of results from different centre

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere

Web-based monitoring tools for Resistive Plate Chambers in the CMS experiment at CERN

The Resistive Plate Chambers (RPC) are used in the CMS experiment at the trigger level and also in the standard offline muon reconstruction. In order to guarantee the quality of the data collected and to monitor online the detector performance, a set of tools has been developed in CMS which is heavily used in the RPC system. The Web-based monitoring (WBM) is a set of java servlets that allows users to check the performance of the hardware during data taking, providing distributions and history plots of all the parameters. The functionalities of the RPC WBM monitoring tools are presented along with studies of the detector performance as a function of growing luminosity and environmental conditions that are tracked over time

'Sifting the significance from the data' - the impact of high-throughput genomic technologies on human genetics and health care.

This report is of a round-table discussion held in Cardiff in September 2009 for Cesagen, a research centre within the Genomics Network of the UK's Economic and Social Research Council. The meeting was arranged to explore ideas as to the likely future course of human genomics. The achievements of genomics research were reviewed, and the likely constraints on the pace of future progress were explored. New knowledge is transforming biology and our understanding of evolution and human disease. The difficulties we face now concern the interpretation rather than the generation of new sequence data. Our understanding of gene-environment interaction is held back by our current primitive tools for measuring environmental factors, and in addition, there may be fundamental constraints on what can be known about these complex interactions.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Exploring the Free Energy Landscape: From Dynamics to Networks and Back

The knowledge of the Free Energy Landscape topology is the essential key to understand many biochemical processes. The determination of the conformers of a protein and their basins of attraction takes a central role for studying molecular isomerization reactions. In this work, we present a novel framework to unveil the features of a Free Energy Landscape answering questions such as how many meta-stable conformers are, how the hierarchical relationship among them is, or what the structure and kinetics of the transition paths are. Exploring the landscape by molecular dynamics simulations, the microscopic data of the trajectory are encoded into a Conformational Markov Network. The structure of this graph reveals the regions of the conformational space corresponding to the basins of attraction. In addition, handling the Conformational Markov Network, relevant kinetic magnitudes as dwell times or rate constants, and the hierarchical relationship among basins, complete the global picture of the landscape. We show the power of the analysis studying a toy model of a funnel-like potential and computing efficiently the conformers of a short peptide, the dialanine, paving the way to a systematic study of the Free Energy Landscape in large peptides.Comment: PLoS Computational Biology (in press

The Energy Landscape, Folding Pathways and the Kinetics of a Knotted Protein

The folding pathway and rate coefficients of the folding of a knotted protein are calculated for a potential energy function with minimal energetic frustration. A kinetic transition network is constructed using the discrete path sampling approach, and the resulting potential energy surface is visualized by constructing disconnectivity graphs. Owing to topological constraints, the low-lying portion of the landscape consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the native knotted state and to configurations where either the N- or C-terminus is not yet folded into the knot. The fastest folding pathways from denatured states exhibit early formation of the N-terminus portion of the knot and a rate-determining step where the C-terminus is incorporated. The low-lying minima with the N-terminus knotted and the C-terminus free therefore constitute an off-pathway intermediate for this model. The insertion of both the N- and C-termini into the knot occur late in the folding process, creating large energy barriers that are the rate limiting steps in the folding process. When compared to other protein folding proteins of a similar length, this system folds over six orders of magnitude more slowly.Comment: 19 page