Influencer-Centered Accounts of Manipulation

Advances in science and technology have added to our insights into the vulnerabilities of human agency as well as to the methods of exploiting them. This has raised the stakes for efforts to clarify the concept and ethics of manipulation. Among these efforts, Robert Noggle’s influencer-centered account of manipulation has been most significant. He defines manipulative acts as those whereby an agent intentionally influences a recipient’s attitudes so that they do not conform as closely as they otherwise would to the pertinent norms and ideals endorsed by the influencer. This provides a relatively simple and in many ways clear definition of manipulation. It sidesteps thorny debates about autonomy, freedom, or practical rationality. It also promises to reveal a conceptual parallel between manipulating and lying, and thus to explain why manipulation is pro tanto wrong. In one respect, however, the account remains ambiguous: It remains unclear whether, and to what extent, it requires that influencers’ beliefs about what is ideal for their recipients to be grounded in some effort on the part of the influencer to identify with or take on the role of her recipient. This paper explains this ambiguity. It argues that influencer-centrism cannot remain indifferent to the validity of an agent’s beliefs about the ideal state of the recipient and provide an identification requirement that would render the whole account plausible and sufficiently determinate

Model Integration To Improve An Early Warning System For The Pollution Control Of The Cauca River, Colombia

One of the main problems in the water supply system in the city of Cali is related to the water quality of the Cauca River. An important source of pollution upstream of the intake of the Puerto Mallarino Treatment Plant (PMTP) is the south channel, part of the South Drainage System (SDS) which discharges into the Cauca River. The existing Early Warning System (EWS) prototype named EWS-Centinela aims to use the real-time data from the Milan station located in the Navarro area and data generated from the intake of PMTP. EWS-Centinela estimates the risk level of a critical pollution event that may exceed levels of purification in the PMTP. In order to contribute to find solutions, this research aims to show the potential that the integration of prediction models could have in improving the water quality forecast of the Cauca River. To this end, an urban drainage model of the SDS of Cali was developed using the PCSWMM software. The existing water quality model of the Cauca River developed in MIKE 11 program was used along with the existing prototype EWS-Centinela. The input rainfall data to the urban drainage model was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The proposed integration shows not only the SDS effects in terms of quality and quantity into the Cauca River, but also a tool for decision-making facing the high risk of pollution of the supply source for this City. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study has been carried out within the framework of the FORESEE project (Operational Flood Forecasting, Warning and Response for Multi-Scale Flood Risks in Developing Cities), supported by Cinara Institute - Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Del Valle and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, The Netherlands

Influence of Canopy Disturbances on Runoff and Landslide Disposition after Heavy Rainfall Events

As protective forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from hydrogeomorphic processes such as sediment transport processes or debris flows. In this context, future scenarios of climate-related canopy disturbances and their influence on the protective effect remain, however, an unsolved problem. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand, an ensemble of forest landscape simulations was carried out and the effects of future changes in natural disturbance regimes were evaluated. To determine peak runoff, hydrological simulations have been conducted, using the conceptual hydrological model ZEMOKOST as well as the deterministic model GEOtop. Effects of forest disturbances on hillslope stability were investigated, based on a modified Coulomb landslide model. Our results suggest no influence of the disturbance regime on the runoff. The climate-related increase in the frequency of disturbances is not reflected in increased runoff during the period under consideration. Contrary, slope stability analyses indicate that the availability of shallow landslides in steep forested torrent catchments might be decreased by the occurrence of disturbances – especially for a warm and dry climate projection. Canopy disturbances seem to accelerate the adaptation of tree species to future climate conditions, which is likely to be accompanied by a change in root systems away from flat roots that currently predominate in torrential catchments. In terms of managing the protective effect of forests against shallow landslides, such natural disturbances can thus be considered as positive interventions in the existing forest ecosystem by promoting natural succession

Replacement of dietary saturated fat with unsaturated fats increases numbers of circulating endothelial progenitor cells and decreases number of microparticles: findings from the randomized, controlled DIVAS study

Background Endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) and microparticles (MP) are emerging novel markers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, which could potentially be modified by dietary fat. We have previously shown that replacing dietary saturated fat (SFA) with monounsaturated (MUFA) or n-6 polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) improved lipid biomarkers, blood pressure and markers of endothelial activation, but their effects on circulating EPCs and MPs are unclear. Objective The Dietary Intervention and VAScular function (DIVAS) study investigated the replacement of 9.5-9.6% total energy (%TE) SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA for 16 weeks on EPC and MP numbers in UK adults with moderate CVD risk. Design In this randomized, controlled, single-blind, parallel group dietary intervention, men and women aged 21-60 y (n=190) with moderate CVD risk (≥50% above the population mean) consumed one of three 16-week isoenergetic diets. Target compositions for total fat, SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA (%TE) were: SFA-rich diet (36:17:11:4, n=64), MUFA-rich diet (36:9:19:4, n=62) and n-6 PUFA-rich diet (36:9:13:10, n=66). Circulating EPC, endothelial MP (EMP) and platelet MP (PMP) numbers were analysed by flow cytometry. Dietary intake, vascular function and other cardio-metabolic risk factors were determined at baseline. Results Relative to the SFA-rich diet, MUFA and n-6 PUFA-rich diets decreased EMP (-47.3%, -44.9%) and PMP numbers (-36.8%, -39.1%) (overall diet effects P<0.01). The MUFA-rich diet increased EPC numbers (+28.4%; P=0.023). Additional analyses using stepwise regression models identified the augmentation index (measuring arterial stiffness determined by pulse wave analysis) as an independent predictor of baseline EPC and MP numbers. Conclusions Replacing 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with MUFA increased EPC numbers and replacement with either MUFA or n-6 PUFA decreased MP numbers, suggesting beneficial effects on endothelial repair and maintenance. Further studies are warranted to determine the mechanisms underlying the favourable effects on EPC and MP numbers following SFA replacement

TOWARD GLOBAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING CAPABILITY: Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

The need for a global drought early warning framework. Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%–13% over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success

Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop

The unprecedented progress in ensemble hydro-meteorological modelling and forecasting on a range of temporal and spatial scales, raises a variety of new challenges which formed the theme of the Joint Virtual Workshop, "Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: challenges and scientific advances”. Held from 29 June to 1 July 2021, this workshop was co-organized by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Copernicus Emergency Management (CEMS) and Climate Change (C3S) Services, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX), and the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). This paper aims to summarize the state-of-the-art presented at the workshop and provide an early career perspective. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and forecasting, reflections on the use of forecasts for decision-making across scales, and means to minimise new barriers to communication in the virtual format are also discussed. Thematic foci of the workshop included hydrological model development and skill assessment, uncertainty communication, forecasts for early action, co-production of services and incorporation of local knowledge, Earth Observation, and data assimilation. Connecting hydrological services to societal needs and local decision-making through effective communication, capacity-building and co-production was identified as critical. Multidisciplinary collaborations emerged as crucial to effectively bring newly developed tools to practice

An eQTL Analysis of Partial Resistance to Puccinia hordei in Barley

Background - Genetic resistance to barley leaf rust caused by Puccinia hordei involves both R genes and quantitative trait loci. The R genes provide higher but less durable resistance than the quantitative trait loci. Consequently, exploring quantitative or partial resistance has become a favorable alternative for controlling disease. Four quantitative trait loci for partial resistance to leaf rust have been identified in the doubled haploid Steptoe (St)/Morex (Mx) mapping population. Further investigations are required to study the molecular mechanisms underpinning partial resistance and ultimately identify the causal genes.Methodology/Principal Findings - We explored partial resistance to barley leaf rust using a genetical genomics approach. We recorded RNA transcript abundance corresponding to each probe on a 15K Agilent custom barley microarray in seedlings from St and Mx and 144 doubled haploid lines of the St/Mx population. A total of 1154 and 1037 genes were, respectively, identified as being P. hordei-responsive among the St and Mx and differentially expressed between P. hordei-infected St and Mx. Normalized ratios from 72 distant-pair hybridisations were used to map the genetic determinants of variation in transcript abundance by expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) mapping generating 15685 eQTL from 9557 genes. Correlation analysis identified 128 genes that were correlated with resistance, of which 89 had eQTL co-locating with the phenotypic quantitative trait loci (pQTL). Transcript abundance in the parents and conservation of synteny with rice allowed us to prioritise six genes as candidates for Rphq11, the pQTL of largest effect, and highlight one, a phospholipid hydroperoxide glutathione peroxidase (HvPHGPx) for detailed analysis.Conclusions/Significance - The eQTL approach yielded information that led to the identification of strong candidate genes underlying pQTL for resistance to leaf rust in barley and on the general pathogen response pathway. The dataset will facilitate a systems appraisal of this host-pathogen interaction and, potentially, for other traits measured in this populatio