Land system governance shapes tick-related public and animal health risks

Land cover and land use have established effects on hazard and exposure to vector-borne diseases. While our understanding of the proximate and distant causes and consequences of land use decisions has evolved, the focus on the proximate effects of landscape on disease ecology remains dominant. We argue that land use governance, viewed through a land system lens, affects tick-borne disease risk. Governance affects land use trajectories and potentially shapes landscapes favourable to ticks or increases contact with ticks by structuring human-land interactions. We illustrate the role of land use legacies, trade-offs in land-use decisions, and social inequities in access to land resources, information and decision-making, with three cases: Kyasanur Forest disease in India, Lyme disease in the Outer Hebrides (Scotland), and tick acaricide resistance in cattle in Ecuador. Land use governance is key to managing the risk of tick-borne diseases, by affecting the hazard and exposure. We propose that land use governance should consider unintended consequences on infectious disease risk

Challenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally

Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly because we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major challenges and opportunities for mappinglanduseintensityfor cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research.Peer Reviewe

Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models

The use of agent-based modelling approaches in ex-post and ex-ante evaluations of agricultural policies has been progressively increasing over the last few years. There are now a sufficient number of models that it is worth taking stock of the way these models have been developed. Here, we review 20 agricultural agent-based models (ABM) addressing heterogeneous decision-making processes in the context of European agriculture. The goals of this review were to i) develop a framework describing aspects of farmers' decision-making that are relevant from a farm-systems perspective, ii) reveal the current state-of-the-art in representing farmers' decision-making in the European agricultural sector, and iii) provide a critical reflection of underdeveloped research areas and on future opportunities in modelling decision-making. To compare different approaches in modelling farmers' behaviour, we focused on the European agricultural sector, which presents a specific character with its family farms, its single market and the common agricultural policy (CAP). We identified several key properties of farmers' decision-making: the multi-output nature of production; the importance of non-agricultural activities; heterogeneous household and family characteristics; and the need for concurrent short- and long-term decision-making. These properties were then used to define levels and types of decision-making mechanisms to structure a literature review. We find most models are sophisticated in the representation of farm exit and entry decisions, as well as the representation of long-term decisions and the consideration of farming styles or types using farm typologies. Considerably fewer attempts to model farmers' emotions, values, learning, risk and uncertainty or social interactions occur in the different case studies. We conclude that there is considerable scope to improve diversity in representation of decision-making and the integration of social interactions in agricultural agent-based modelling approaches by combining existing modelling approaches and promoting model inter-comparisons. Thus, this review provides a valuable entry point for agent-based modellers, agricultural systems modellers and data driven social scientists for the re-use and sharing of model components, code and data. An intensified dialogue could fertilize more coordinated and purposeful combinations and comparisons of ABM and other modelling approaches as well as better reconciliation of empirical data and theoretical foundations, which ultimately are key to developing improved models of agricultural systems.Swiss National Science Foundatio

Tropical dry woodland loss occurs disproportionately in areas of highest conservation value

Tropical and subtropical dry woodlands are rich in biodiversity and carbon. Yet, many of these woodlands are under high deforestation pressure and remain weakly protected. Here, we assessed how deforestation dynamics relate to areas of woodland protection and to conservation priorities across the world's tropical dry woodlands. Specifically, we characterized different types of deforestation frontier from 2000 to 2020 and compared them to protected areas (PAs), Indigenous Peoples' lands and conservation areas for biodiversity, carbon and water. We found that global conservation priorities were always overrepresented in tropical dry woodlands compared to the rest of the globe (between 4% and 96% more than expected, depending on the type of conservation priority). Moreover, about 41% of all dry woodlands were characterized as deforestation frontiers, and these frontiers have been falling disproportionately in areas with important regional (i.e. tropical dry woodland) conservation assets. While deforestation frontiers were identified within all tropical dry woodland classes of woodland protection, they were lower than the average within protected areas coinciding with Indigenous Peoples' lands (23%), and within other PAs (28%). However, within PAs, deforestation frontiers have also been disproportionately affecting regional conservation assets. Many emerging deforestation frontiers were identified outside but close to PAs, highlighting a growing threat that the conserved areas of dry woodland will become isolated. Understanding how deforestation frontiers coincide with major types of current woodland protection can help target context-specific conservation policies and interventions to tropical dry woodland conservation assets (e.g. PAs in which deforestation is rampant require stronger enforcement, inactive deforestation frontiers could benefit from restoration). Our analyses also identify recurring patterns that can be used to test the transferability of governance approaches and promote learning across social–ecological contexts

Transparency and sustainability in global commodity supply chains

Over the last few decades rapid advances in processes to collect, monitor, disclose, and disseminate information have contributed towards the development of entirely new modes of sustainability governance for global commodity supply chains. However, there has been very little critical appraisal of the contribution made by different transparency initiatives to sustainability and the ways in which they can (and cannot) influence new governance arrangements. Here we seek to strengthen the theoretical underpinning of research and action on supply chain transparency by addressing four questions: (1) What is meant by supply chain transparency? (2) What is the relevance of supply chain transparency to supply chain sustainability governance? (3) What is the current status of supply chain transparency, and what are the strengths and weaknesses of existing initiatives? and (4) What propositions can be advanced for how transparency can have a positive transformative effect on the governance interventions that seek to strengthen sustainability outcomes? We use examples from agricultural supply chains and the zero-deforestation agenda as a focus of our analysis but draw insights that are relevant to the transparency and sustainability of supply chains in general. We propose a typology to distinguish among types of supply chain information that are needed to support improvements in sustainability governance, and illustrate a number of major shortfalls and systematic biases in existing information systems. We also propose a set of ten propositions that, taken together, serve to expose some of the potential pitfalls and undesirable outcomes that may result from (inevitably) limited or poorly designed transparency systems, whilst offering guidance on some of the ways in which greater transparency can make a more effective, lasting and positive contribution to sustainability

Methods for attributing land-use emissions to products

Roughly one-third of anthropogenic GHG emissions are caused by agricultural and forestry activities and land-use change (collectively, land-use emissions'). Understanding the ultimate drivers of these emissions requires attributing emissions to specific land-use activities and products. Although quantities of land-use emissions are matters of fact, the methodological choices and assumptions required to attribute those emissions to activities and products depend on research goals and data availability. In this review, we explore several possible accounting methods. Our results highlight the sensitivity of accounting to temporal distributions of emissions and the consequences of replacing spatially-explicit data with aggregate proxies such as production or harvested area data. Different accounting options emphasize different causes of land-use emissions (e.g., proximate or indirect drivers of deforestation). To support public policies that effectively balance competing objectives, analysts should carefully consider and communicate implications of accounting choices

Targeted temperature control following traumatic brain injury:ESICM/NACCS best practice consensus recommendations

Aims and scope: The aim of this panel was to develop consensus recommendations on targeted temperature control (TTC) in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and in patients with moderate TBI who deteriorate and require admission to the intensive care unit for intracranial pressure (ICP) management. Methods: A group of 18 international neuro-intensive care experts in the acute management of TBI participated in a modified Delphi process. An online anonymised survey based on a systematic literature review was completed ahead of the meeting, before the group convened to explore the level of consensus on TTC following TBI. Outputs from the meeting were combined into a further anonymous online survey round to finalise recommendations. Thresholds of ≥ 16 out of 18 panel members in agreement (≥ 88%) for strong consensus and ≥ 14 out of 18 (≥ 78%) for moderate consensus were prospectively set for all statements. Results: Strong consensus was reached on TTC being essential for high-quality TBI care. It was recommended that temperature should be monitored continuously, and that fever should be promptly identified and managed in patients perceived to be at risk of secondary brain injury. Controlled normothermia (36.0–37.5 °C) was strongly recommended as a therapeutic option to be considered in tier 1 and 2 of the Seattle International Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Consensus Conference ICP management protocol. Temperature control targets should be individualised based on the perceived risk of secondary brain injury and fever aetiology. Conclusions: Based on a modified Delphi expert consensus process, this report aims to inform on best practices for TTC delivery for patients following TBI, and to highlight areas of need for further research to improve clinical guidelines in this setting.</p

Targeted temperature control following traumatic brain injury:ESICM/NACCS best practice consensus recommendations

Aims and scope: The aim of this panel was to develop consensus recommendations on targeted temperature control (TTC) in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and in patients with moderate TBI who deteriorate and require admission to the intensive care unit for intracranial pressure (ICP) management. Methods: A group of 18 international neuro-intensive care experts in the acute management of TBI participated in a modified Delphi process. An online anonymised survey based on a systematic literature review was completed ahead of the meeting, before the group convened to explore the level of consensus on TTC following TBI. Outputs from the meeting were combined into a further anonymous online survey round to finalise recommendations. Thresholds of ≥ 16 out of 18 panel members in agreement (≥ 88%) for strong consensus and ≥ 14 out of 18 (≥ 78%) for moderate consensus were prospectively set for all statements. Results: Strong consensus was reached on TTC being essential for high-quality TBI care. It was recommended that temperature should be monitored continuously, and that fever should be promptly identified and managed in patients perceived to be at risk of secondary brain injury. Controlled normothermia (36.0–37.5 °C) was strongly recommended as a therapeutic option to be considered in tier 1 and 2 of the Seattle International Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Consensus Conference ICP management protocol. Temperature control targets should be individualised based on the perceived risk of secondary brain injury and fever aetiology. Conclusions: Based on a modified Delphi expert consensus process, this report aims to inform on best practices for TTC delivery for patients following TBI, and to highlight areas of need for further research to improve clinical guidelines in this setting.</p

Population Physiology: Leveraging Electronic Health Record Data to Understand Human Endocrine Dynamics

Studying physiology and pathophysiology over a broad population for long periods of time is difficult primarily because collecting human physiologic data can be intrusive, dangerous, and expensive. One solution is to use data that have been collected for a different purpose. Electronic health record (EHR) data promise to support the development and testing of mechanistic physiologic models on diverse populations and allow correlation with clinical outcomes, but limitations in the data have thus far thwarted such use. For example, using uncontrolled population-scale EHR data to verify the outcome of time dependent behavior of mechanistic, constructive models can be difficult because: (i) aggregation of the population can obscure or generate a signal, (ii) there is often no control population with a well understood health state, and (iii) diversity in how the population is measured can make the data difficult to fit into conventional analysis techniques. This paper shows that it is possible to use EHR data to test a physiological model for a population and over long time scales. Specifically, a methodology is developed and demonstrated for testing a mechanistic, time-dependent, physiological model of serum glucose dynamics with uncontrolled, population-scale, physiological patient data extracted from an EHR repository. It is shown that there is no observable daily variation the normalized mean glucose for any EHR subpopulations. In contrast, a derived value, daily variation in nonlinear correlation quantified by the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI), did reveal the intuitively expected diurnal variation in glucose levels amongst a random population of humans. Moreover, in a population of continuously (tube) fed patients, there was no observable TDMI-based diurnal signal. These TDMI-based signals, via a glucose insulin model, were then connected with human feeding patterns. In particular, a constructive physiological model was shown to correctly predict the difference between the general uncontrolled population and a subpopulation whose feeding was controlled