Measuring the Performance of Vaccination Programs Using Cross-Sectional Surveys: A Likelihood Framework and Retrospective Analysis

Justin Lessler and colleagues describe a method that estimates the fraction of a population accessible to vaccination activities, and they apply it to measles vaccination in three African countries: Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone

Ultracold atomic gases in optical lattices: mimicking condensed matter physics and beyond

We review recent developments in the physics of ultracold atomic and molecular gases in optical lattices. Such systems are nearly perfect realisations of various kinds of Hubbard models, and as such may very well serve to mimic condensed matter phenomena. We show how these systems may be employed as quantum simulators to answer some challenging open questions of condensed matter, and even high energy physics. After a short presentation of the models and the methods of treatment of such systems, we discuss in detail, which challenges of condensed matter physics can be addressed with (i) disordered ultracold lattice gases, (ii) frustrated ultracold gases, (iii) spinor lattice gases, (iv) lattice gases in "artificial" magnetic fields, and, last but not least, (v) quantum information processing in lattice gases. For completeness, also some recent progress related to the above topics with trapped cold gases will be discussed.Comment: Review article. v2: published version, 135 pages, 34 figure

A mosaic tetracycline resistance gene tet(S/M) detected in an MDR pneumococcal CC230 lineage that underwent capsular switching in South Africa

Objectives: We reported tet(S/M) in Streptococcus pneumoniae and investigated its temporal spread in relation to nationwide clinical interventions. Methods: We whole-genome sequenced 12 254 pneumococcal isolates from 29 countries on an Illumina HiSeq sequencer. Serotype, multilocus ST and antibiotic resistance were inferred from genomes. An SNP tree was built using Gubbins. Temporal spread was reconstructed using a birth–death model. Results: We identified tet(S/M) in 131 pneumococcal isolates and none carried other known tet genes. Tetracycline susceptibility testing results were available for 121 tet(S/M)-positive isolates and all were resistant. A majority (74%) of tet(S/M)-positive isolates were from South Africa and caused invasive diseases among young children (59% HIV positive, where HIV status was available). All but two tet(S/M)-positive isolates belonged to clonal complex (CC) 230. A global phylogeny of CC230 (n=389) revealed that tet(S/M)-positive isolates formed a sublineage predicted to exhibit resistance to penicillin, co-trimoxazole, erythromycin and tetracycline. The birth–death model detected an unrecognized outbreak of this sublineage in South Africa between 2000 and 2004 with expected secondary infections (effective reproductive number, R) of ∼2.5. R declined to ∼1.0 in 2005 and <1.0 in 2012. The declining epidemic could be related to improved access to ART in 2004 and introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in 2009. Capsular switching from vaccine serotype 14 to non-vaccine serotype 23A was observed within the sublineage. Conclusions: The prevalence of tet(S/M) in pneumococci was low and its dissemination was due to an unrecognized outbreak of CC230 in South Africa. Capsular switching in this MDR sublineage highlighted its potential to continue to cause disease in the post-PCV13 era

Adaptive Management and the Value of Information: Learning Via Intervention in Epidemiology

Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach to design and evaluate intervention strategies in epidemiology, using real-time surveillance to resolve model uncertainty as management proceeds, with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) culling and measles vaccination as case studies. We use simulations of alternative intervention strategies under competing models to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on decision making, in terms of the value of information, and quantify the benefit of adaptive versus static intervention strategies. Culling decisions during the 2001 UK FMD outbreak were contentious due to uncertainty about the spatial scale of transmission. The expected benefit of resolving this uncertainty prior to a new outbreak on a UK-like landscape would be £45–£60 million relative to the strategy that minimizes livestock losses averaged over alternate transmission models. AM during the outbreak would be expected to recover up to £20.1 million of this expected benefit. AM would also recommend a more conservative initial approach (culling of infected premises and dangerous contact farms) than would a fixed strategy (which would additionally require culling of contiguous premises). For optimal targeting of measles vaccination, based on an outbreak in Malawi in 2010, AM allows better distribution of resources across the affected region; its utility depends on uncertainty about both the at-risk population and logistical capacity. When daily vaccination rates are highly constrained, the optimal initial strategy is to conduct a small, quick campaign; a reduction in expected burden of approximately 10,000 cases could result if campaign targets can be updated on the basis of the true susceptible population. Formal incorporation of a policy to update future management actions in response to information gained in the course of an outbreak can change the optimal initial response and result in significant cost savings. AM provides a framework for using multiple models to facilitate public-health decision making and an objective basis for updating management actions in response to improved scientific understanding

Colonization history of the western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) in North America: insights from random forest ABC using microsatellite data

First described from western Kansas, USA, the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, is one of the worst pests of maize. The species is generally thought to be of Mexican origin and to have incidentally followed the expansion of maize cultivation into North America thousands of years ago. However, this hypothesis has never been investigated formally. In this study, the genetic variability of samples collected throughout North America was analysed at 13 microsatellite marker loci to explore precisely the population genetic structure and colonization history of D. v. virgifera. In particular, we used up-to-date approximate Bayesian computation methods based on random forest algorithms to test a Mexican versus a central-USA origin of the species, and to compare various possible timings of colonization. This analysis provided strong evidence that the origin of D. v. virgifera was southern (Mexico, or even further south). Surprisingly, we also found that the expansion of the species north of its origin was recent—probably not before 1100 years ago—thus indicating it was not directly associated with the early history of maize expansion out of Mexico, a far more ancient event

Physician career satisfaction within specialties

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Specialty-specific data on career satisfaction may be useful for understanding physician workforce trends and for counseling medical students about career options.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed cross-sectional data from 6,590 physicians (response rate, 53%) in Round 4 (2004-2005) of the Community Tracking Study Physician Survey. The dependent variable ranged from +1 to -1 and measured satisfaction and dissatisfaction with career. Forty-two specialties were analyzed with survey-adjusted linear regressions</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After adjusting for physician, practice, and community characteristics, the following specialties had significantly higher satisfaction levels than family medicine: pediatric emergency medicine (regression coefficient = 0.349); geriatric medicine (0.323); other pediatric subspecialties (0.270); neonatal/prenatal medicine (0.266); internal medicine and pediatrics (combined practice) (0.250); pediatrics (0.250); dermatology (0.249);and child and adolescent psychiatry (0.203). The following specialties had significantly lower satisfaction levels than family medicine: neurological surgery (-0.707); pulmonary critical care medicine (-0.273); nephrology (-0.206); and obstetrics and gynecology (-0.188). We also found satisfaction was significantly and positively related to income and employment in a medical school but negatively associated with more than 50 work-hours per-week, being a full-owner of the practice, greater reliance on managed care revenue, and uncontrollable lifestyle. We observed no statistically significant gender differences and no differences between African-Americans and whites.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Career satisfaction varied across specialties. A number of stakeholders will likely be interested in these findings including physicians in specialties that rank high and low and students contemplating specialty. Our findings regarding "less satisfied" specialties should elicit concern from residency directors and policy makers since they appear to be in critical areas of medicine.</p

Visualizing variation within Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) and country population snapshots to contextualize pneumococcal isolates

Knowledge of pneumococcal lineages, their geographic distribution and antibiotic resistance patterns, can give insights into global pneumococcal disease. We provide interactive bioinformatic outputs to explore such topics, aiming to increase dissemination of genomic insights to the wider community, without the need for specialist training. We prepared 12 country-specific phylogenetic snapshots, and international phylogenetic snapshots of 73 common Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) previously defined using PopPUNK, and present them in Microreact. Gene presence and absence defined using Roary, and recombination profiles derived from Gubbins are presented in Phandango for each GPSC. Temporal phylogenetic signal was assessed for each GPSC using BactDating. We provide examples of how such resources can be used. In our example use of a country-specific phylogenetic snapshot we determined that serotype 14 was observed in nine unrelated genetic backgrounds in South Africa. The international phylogenetic snapshot of GPSC9, in which most serotype 14 isolates from South Africa were observed, highlights that there were three independent sub-clusters represented by South African serotype 14 isolates. We estimated from the GPSC9-dated tree that the sub-clusters were each established in South Africa during the 1980s. We show how recombination plots allowed the identification of a 20kb recombination spanning the capsular polysaccharide locus within GPSC97. This was consistent with a switch from serotype 6A to 19A estimated to have occured in the 1990s from the GPSC97-dated tree. Plots of gene presence/absence of resistance genes (tet, erm, cat) across the GPSC23 phylogeny were consistent with acquisition of a composite transposon. We estimated from the GPSC23-dated tree that the acquisition occurred between 1953 and 1975. Finally, we demonstrate the assignment of GPSC31 to 17 externally generated pneumococcal serotype 1 assemblies from Utah via Pathogenwatch. Most of the Utah isolates clustered within GPSC31 in a USA-specific clade with the most recent common ancestor estimated between 1958 and 1981. The resources we have provided can be used to explore to data, test hypothesis and generate new hypotheses. The accessible assignment of GPSCs allows others to contextualize their own collections beyond the data presented here

Platelet-rich plasma induces post-natal maturation of immature articular cartilage and correlates with LOXL1 activation

Platelet-­rich plasma (PRP) is used to stimulate the repair of acute and chronic cartilage damage even though there is no definitive evidence of how this is achieved. Chondrocytes in injured and diseased situations frequently re­ express phenotypic biomarkers of immature cartilage so tissue maturation is a potential pathway for restoration of normal structure and function. We used an in vitro model of growth factor­induced maturation to perform a comparative study in order to determine whether PRP can also induce this specific form of remodeling that is characterised by increased cellular proliferation and tissue stiffness. Gene expression patterns specific for maturation were mimicked in PRP treated cartilage, with chondromodulin, collagen types II/X downregulated, deiodinase II and netrin­1 upregulated. PRP increased cartilage surface cell density 1.5­fold (P &#60; 0.05), confirmed by bromodeoxyuridine incorporation and proportionate increases in proliferating cell nuclear antigen gene expression. Atomic force microscopy analysis of PRP and growth factor treated cartilage gave a 5­fold increase in stiffness correlating with a 10­fold upregulation of lysyl oxidase like­1 gene expression (P &#60; 0.001). These data show PRP induces key aspects of post­natal maturation in immature cartilage and provides the basis to evaluate a new biological rationale for its activity when used clinically to initiate joint repair

Cigarette smoke worsens lung inflammation and impairs resolution of influenza infection in mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cigarette smoke has both pro-inflammatory and immunosuppressive effects. Both active and passive cigarette smoke exposure are linked to an increased incidence and severity of respiratory virus infections, but underlying mechanisms are not well defined. We hypothesized, based on prior gene expression profiling studies, that upregulation of pro-inflammatory mediators by short term smoke exposure would be protective against a subsequent influenza infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>BALB/c mice were subjected to whole body smoke exposure with 9 cigarettes/day for 4 days. Mice were then infected with influenza A (H3N1, Mem71 strain), and analyzed 3 and 10 days later (d3, d10). These time points are the peak and resolution (respectively) of influenza infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Inflammatory cell influx into the bronchoalveolar lavage (BALF), inflammatory mediators, proteases, histopathology, viral titres and T lymphocyte profiles were analyzed. Compared to smoke or influenza alone, mice exposed to smoke and then influenza had more macrophages, neutrophils and total lymphocytes in BALF at d3, more macrophages in BALF at d10, lower net gelatinase activity and increased activity of tissue inhibitor of metalloprotease-1 in BALF at d3, altered profiles of key cytokines and CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes, worse lung pathology and more virus-specific, activated CD8+ T lymphocytes in BALF. Mice smoke exposed before influenza infection had close to 10-fold higher lung virus titres at d3 than influenza alone mice, although all mice had cleared virus by d10, regardless of smoke exposure. Smoke exposure caused temporary weight loss and when smoking ceased after viral infection, smoke and influenza mice regained significantly less weight than smoke alone mice.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Smoke induced inflammation does not protect against influenza infection.</p> <p>In most respects, smoke exposure worsened the host response to influenza. This animal model may be useful in studying how smoke worsens respiratory viral infections.</p

Secondary prevention of heart disease – knowledge among cardiologists and Ω-3 (Omega-3) fatty acid prescribing behaviors in Karachi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The use of omega-3 fatty acids is a currently proven strategy for secondary prevention of heart disease. The prescription practices for this important nutraceutical is not currently known. It is imperative to assess the knowledge of cardiologists regarding the benefits of omega-3 fatty acids and to determine the frequency of its prescription. The aim of the study was to determine the practices and associations of dietary fish prescribing among cardiologists of Karachi and to assess their knowledge of fish oil supplementation and attitudes toward dietary practices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross sectional survey was conducted during the period of January to March, 2008. A self report questionnaire was employed. All practicing cardiologists of Karachi were included in the study. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the independent factors associated with high fish prescribers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sample comprised of a total of 163 cardiologists practicing in Karachi, Pakistan. Most (73.6%) of the cardiologists fell in the age range of 28 – 45 years and were male (90.8%). High fish prescribers only comprised 36.2% of the respondents. After adjusting for age and gender, multivariate analysis revealed that only the variable of knowledge about fish oil's role in reducing sudden cardiac death was independently associated with high fish prescribers OR = 6.38 [95% CI 2.58–15.78].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The level of knowledge about the benefits of omega-3 fatty acids is high and the cardiologists harbor a favorable attitude towards dispensing dietary fish advice. However, the prescription practices are less than optimal and not concordant with recommendations of organisations such as the American Heart Association and National Heart Foundation of Australia. The knowledge of prevention of sudden cardiac death in CVD patients has been identified as an important predictor of high fish prescription. This particular life-saving property of omega-3 fatty acids should be the focus of any implemented educational strategy targeted to improve secondary CVD prevention via omega-3 fatty acid supplementation.</p