Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic

The unprecedented scale of the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014–2015) has prompted an explosion of efforts to understand the transmission dynamics of the virus and to analyze the performance of possible containment strategies. Models have focused primarily on the reproductive numbers of the disease that represent the average number of secondary infections produced by a random infectious individual. However, these population-level estimates may conflate important systematic variation in the number of cases generated by infected individuals, particularly found in spatially localized transmission and superspreading events. Although superspreading features prominently in first-hand narratives of Ebola transmission, its dynamics have not been systematically characterized, hindering refinements of future epidemic predictions and explorations of targeted interventions. We used Bayesian model inference to integrate individual-level spatial information with other epidemiological data of community-based (undetected within clinical-care systems) cases and to explicitly infer distribution of the cases generated by each infected individual. Our results show that superspreaders play a key role in sustaining onward transmission of the epidemic, and they are responsible for a significant proportion (∼61%) of the infections. Our results also suggest age as a key demographic predictor for superspreading. We also show that community-based cases may have progressed more rapidly than those notified within clinical-care systems, and most transmission events occurred in a relatively short distance (with median value of 2.51 km). Our results stress the importance of characterizing superspreading of Ebola, enhance our current understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics, and highlight the potential importance of targeted control measures

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission—With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging

Comparative analysis of bones, mites, soil chemistry, nematodes and soil micro-Eukaryotes from a suspected homicide to estimate the post-mortem interval

Criminal investigations of suspected murder cases require estimating the post-mortem interval (PMI, or time after death) which is challenging for longer periods. Here we present the case of human remains found in a Swiss forest. We have used a multidisciplinary approach involving the analysis of bones, soil chemical characteristics, mites and nematodes (by microscopy) and micro-Eukaryotes (by Illumina high throughput sequencing). We analysed soil samples collected beneath the remains of the head, upper and lower body and “control” samples taken a few meters away. The PMI estimated on hair 14C-data via bomb peak radiocarbon dating gave a time range of 1 to 2 years before the finding of the remains on site. Cluster analyses for chemical constituents, nematodes, mites and micro- Eukaryotes revealed two clusters 1) head and upper body and 2) lower body and controls. From mite evidence, we conclude that the body was likely to have been brought to the site after death. However, chemical analyses, nematode community analyses and the analyses of micro-Eukaryotes indicate that decomposition took place at least partly on site. This study illustrates the usefulness of combining several lines of evidence for the study of homicide cases to better calibrate PMI inference tools

Treatment of synthetic textile wastewater containing dye mixtures with microcosms

The aim was to assess the ability of microcosms (laboratory-scale shallow ponds) as a post polishing stage for the remediation of artificial textile wastewater comprising two commercial dyes (basic red 46 (BR46) and reactive blue 198 (RB198)) as a mixture. The objectives were to evaluate the impact of Lemna minor L. (common duckweed) on the water quality outflows; the elimination of dye mixtures, organic matter, and nutrients; and the impact of synthetic textile wastewater comprising dye mixtures on the L. minor plant growth. Three mixtures were prepared providing a total dye concentration of 10 mg/l. Findings showed that the planted simulated ponds possess a significant (p < 0.05) potential for improving the outflow characteristics and eliminate dyes, ammonium-nitrogen (NH4-N), and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) in all mixtures compared with the corresponding unplanted ponds. The removal of mixed dyes in planted ponds was mainly due to phyto-transformation and adsorption of BR46 with complete aromatic amine mineralisation. For ponds containing 2 mg/l of RB198 and 8 mg/l of BR46, removals were around 53%, which was significantly higher than those for other mixtures: 5 mg/l of RB198 and 5 mg/l of BR46 and 8 mg/l of RB198 and 2 mg/l of BR46 achieved only 41 and 26% removals, respectively. Dye mixtures stopped the growth of L. minor, and the presence of artificial wastewater reduced their development

Toxic ignorance and right-to-know in biomonitoring results communication: a survey of scientists and study participants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exposure assessment has shifted from pollutant monitoring in air, soil, and water toward personal exposure measurements and biomonitoring. This trend along with the paucity of health effect data for many of the pollutants studied raise ethical and scientific challenges for reporting results to study participants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We interviewed 26 individuals involved in biomonitoring studies, including academic scientists, scientists from environmental advocacy organizations, IRB officials, and study participants; observed meetings where stakeholders discussed these issues; and reviewed the relevant literature to assess emerging ethical, scientific, and policy debates about personal exposure assessment and biomonitoring, including public demand for information on the human health effects of chemical body burdens.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identify three frameworks for report-back in personal exposure studies: clinical ethics; community-based participatory research; and citizen science 'data judo.' The first approach emphasizes reporting results only when the health significance of exposures is known, while the latter two represent new communication strategies where study participants play a role in interpreting, disseminating, and leveraging results to promote community health. We identify five critical areas to consider in planning future biomonitoring studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Public deliberation about communication in personal exposure assessment research suggests that new forms of community-based research ethics and participatory scientific practice are emerging.</p

We're in this Together: Sensation of the Host Cell Environment by Endosymbiotic Bacteria

Bacteria inhabit diverse environments, including the inside of eukaryotic cells. While a bacterial invader may initially act as a parasite or pathogen, a subsequent mutualistic relationship can emerge in which the endosymbiotic bacteria and their host share metabolites. While the environment of the host cell provides improved stability when compared to an extracellular environment, the endosymbiont population must still cope with changing conditions, including variable nutrient concentrations, the host cell cycle, host developmental programs, and host genetic variation. Furthermore, the eukaryotic host can deploy mechanisms actively preventing a bacterial return to a pathogenic state. Many endosymbionts are likely to use two-component systems (TCSs) to sense their surroundings, and expanded genomic studies of endosymbionts should reveal how TCSs may promote bacterial integration with a host cell. We suggest that studying TCS maintenance or loss may be informative about the evolutionary pathway taken toward endosymbiosis, or even toward endosymbiont-to-organelle conversion.Peer reviewe

Primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is an immune-mediated chronic cholestatic liver disease with a slowly progressive course. Without treatment, most patients eventually develop fibrosis and cirrhosis of the liver and may need liver transplantation in the late stage of disease. PBC primarily affects women (female preponderance 9–10:1) with a prevalence of up to 1 in 1,000 women over 40 years of age. Common symptoms of the disease are fatigue and pruritus, but most patients are asymptomatic at first presentation. The diagnosis is based on sustained elevation of serum markers of cholestasis, i.e., alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyl transferase, and the presence of serum antimitochondrial antibodies directed against the E2 subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex. Histologically, PBC is characterized by florid bile duct lesions with damage to biliary epithelial cells, an often dense portal inflammatory infiltrate and progressive loss of small intrahepatic bile ducts. Although the insight into pathogenetic aspects of PBC has grown enormously during the recent decade and numerous genetic, environmental, and infectious factors have been disclosed which may contribute to the development of PBC, the precise pathogenesis remains enigmatic. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is currently the only FDA-approved medical treatment for PBC. When administered at adequate doses of 13–15 mg/kg/day, up to two out of three patients with PBC may have a normal life expectancy without additional therapeutic measures. The mode of action of UDCA is still under discussion, but stimulation of impaired hepatocellular and cholangiocellular secretion, detoxification of bile, and antiapoptotic effects may represent key mechanisms. One out of three patients does not adequately respond to UDCA therapy and may need additional medical therapy and/or liver transplantation. This review summarizes current knowledge on the clinical, diagnostic, pathogenetic, and therapeutic aspects of PBC

Fragmented realities: The ‘sectarianisation’of space among Iraqi Shias in London

How do the spaces we inhabit shape our lived experiences? And how do those lived experiences in turn come to shape and influence our political subjectivity? Such questions are rendered all the more important in studies of migrant or diaspora populations who, by definition, conduct their daily lives in spaces and places that were initially alien to them. The way in which migrants interact with the spaces around them can tell us much about the social, political, and religious engagements they invest in, as well as the very real way in which they experience their local milieu. Through a detailed study of Iraqi Shiis living in London, specifically in the north-western borough of Brent, this article will seek to trace the ways in which religious institutions have carved up the physical and social landscape of north-west London in ways that have enduring effect on the communities with which they engage. The increasing diversification of different religious establishments, I argue, has led to a fragmentation of the city-as-lived, in which the vast majority of practising Iraqi Shiis engage with only small isolated pockets of the urban environment on a daily basis. Moreover, the growing number of specifically Shia schools, charities, mosques, community centres and other such institutions has resulted in what I call a ‘sectarianisation’ of space in Brent, in which individuals hailing from different branches of Islam inhabit different spaces within the city despite often living within metres of each other. Drawing on a mixture of interviews, participant observation, and mapping techniques, I bring together theory and practice in order to sketch out the ways migrant lives can come to be localised in certain spaces, and what that can ultimately mean in terms of their political subjectivity and engagement