Reliability analysis of dynamic systems by translating temporal fault trees into Bayesian networks

Classical combinatorial fault trees can be used to assess combinations of failures but are unable to capture sequences of faults, which are important in complex dynamic systems. A number of proposed techniques extend fault tree analysis for dynamic systems. One of such technique, Pandora, introduces temporal gates to capture the sequencing of events and allows qualitative analysis of temporal fault trees. Pandora can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques. It is, therefore, useful to explore the possible avenues for quantitative analysis of Pandora temporal fault trees, and we identify Bayesian Networks as a possible framework for such analysis. We describe how Pandora fault trees can be translated to Bayesian Networks for dynamic dependability analysis and demonstrate the process on a simplified fuel system model. The conversion facilitates predictive reliability analysis of Pandora fault trees, but also opens the way for post-hoc diagnostic analysis of failures

Ring-type singular solutions of the biharmonic nonlinear Schrodinger equation

We present new singular solutions of the biharmonic nonlinear Schrodinger equation in dimension d and nonlinearity exponent 2\sigma+1. These solutions collapse with the quasi self-similar ring profile, with ring width L(t) that vanishes at singularity, and radius proportional to L^\alpha, where \alpha=(4-\sigma)/(\sigma(d-1)). The blowup rate of these solutions is 1/(3+\alpha) for 4/d\le\sigma<4, and slightly faster than 1/4 for \sigma=4. These solutions are analogous to the ring-type solutions of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures, research articl

MTSS1 is a critical epigenetically regulated tumor suppressor in CML

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is driven by malignant stem cells that can persist despite therapy. We have identified Metastasis suppressor 1 (Mtss1/MIM) to be downregulated in hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells from leukemic transgenic SCLtTA/Bcr-Abl mice and in patients with CML at diagnosis, and Mtss1 was restored when patients achieved complete remission. Forced expression of Mtss1 decreased clonogenic capacity and motility of murine myeloid progenitor cells and reduced tumor growth. Viral transduction of Mtss1 into lineage depleted SCLtTA/Bcr-Abl bone marrow cells decreased leukemic cell burden in recipients, and leukemogenesis was reduced upon injection of Mtss1 overexpressing murine myeloid 32D cells. Tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy and reversion of Bcr-Abl expression increased Mtss1 expression but failed to restore it to control levels. CML patient samples revealed higher DNA methylation of specific Mtss1 promoter CpG sites that contain binding sites for Kaiso and Rest transcription factors. In summary, we identified a novel tumor suppressor in CML stem cells that is downregulated by both Bcr-Abl kinase-dependent and -independent mechanisms. Restored Mtss1 expression markedly inhibits primitive leukemic cell biology in vivo, providing a therapeutic rationale for the Bcr-Abl-Mtss1 axis to target TKI resistant CML stem cells in patients

Asymptotic dynamics of short-waves in nonlinear dispersive models

The multiple-scale perturbation theory, well known for long-waves, is extended to the study of the far-field behaviour of short-waves, commonly called ripples. It is proved that the Benjamin-Bona-Mahony- Peregrine equation can propagates short-waves. This result contradict the Benjamin hypothesis that short-waves tends not to propagate in this model and close a part of the old controversy between Korteweg-de Vries and Benjamin-Bona-Mahony-Peregrine equations. We shown that a nonlinear (quadratic) Klein-Gordon type equation substitutes in a short-wave analysis the ubiquitous Korteweg-de Vries equation of long-wave approach. Moreover the kink solutions of phi-4 and sine-Gordon equations are understood as an all orders asymptotic behaviour of short-waves. It is proved that the antikink solution of phi-4 model which was never obtained perturbatively can be obtained by perturbation expansion in the wave-number k in the short-wave limit.Comment: to appears in Physical Review E. 4 pages, revtex file

A Centre-Stable Manifold for the Focussing Cubic NLS in R1+3R^{1+3}

Consider the focussing cubic nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation in $R^3$: $$i\psi_t+\Delta\psi = -|\psi|^2 \psi.$$ It admits special solutions of the form $e^{it\alpha}\phi$, where $\phi$ is a Schwartz function and a positive ($\phi>0$) solution of $$-\Delta \phi + \alpha\phi = \phi^3.$$ The space of all such solutions, together with those obtained from them by rescaling and applying phase and Galilean coordinate changes, called standing waves, is the eight-dimensional manifold that consists of functions of the form $e^{i(v \cdot + \Gamma)} \phi(\cdot - y, \alpha)$. We prove that any solution starting sufficiently close to a standing wave in the $\Sigma = W^{1, 2}(R^3) \cap |x|^{-1}L^2(R^3)$ norm and situated on a certain codimension-one local Lipschitz manifold exists globally in time and converges to a point on the manifold of standing waves. Furthermore, we show that \mc N is invariant under the Hamiltonian flow, locally in time, and is a centre-stable manifold in the sense of Bates, Jones. The proof is based on the modulation method introduced by Soffer and Weinstein for the $L^2$-subcritical case and adapted by Schlag to the $L^2$-supercritical case. An important part of the proof is the Keel-Tao endpoint Strichartz estimate in $R^3$ for the nonselfadjoint Schr\"odinger operator obtained by linearizing around a standing wave solution.Comment: 56 page

Constraining New Physics with a Positive or Negative Signal of Neutrino-less Double Beta Decay

We investigate numerically how accurately one could constrain the strengths of different short-range contributions to neutrino-less double beta decay in effective field theory. Depending on the outcome of near-future experiments yielding information on the neutrino masses, the corresponding bounds or estimates can be stronger or weaker. A particularly interesting case, resulting in strong bounds, would be a positive signal of neutrino-less double beta decay that is consistent with complementary information from neutrino oscillation experiments, kinematical determinations of the neutrino mass, and measurements of the sum of light neutrino masses from cosmological observations. The keys to more robust bounds are improvements of the knowledge of the nuclear physics involved and a better experimental accuracy.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures. Minor changes. Matches version published in JHE

The Carina Project. V. The impact of NLTE effects on the iron content

We have performed accurate iron abundance measurements for 44 red giants (RGs) in the Carina dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxy. We used archival, high-resolution spectra (R~38,000) collected with UVES at ESO/VLT either in slit mode (5) or in fiber mode (39, FLAMES/GIRAFFE-UVES). The sample is more than a factor of four larger than any previous spectroscopic investigation of stars in dSphs based on high-resolution (R>38,000) spectra. We did not impose the ionization equilibrium between neutral and singly-ionized iron lines. The effective temperatures and the surface gravities were estimated by fitting stellar isochrones in the V, B-V color-magnitude diagram. To measure the iron abundance of individual lines we applied the LTE spectrum synthesis fitting method using MARCS model atmospheres of appropriate metallicity. We found evidence of NLTE effects between neutral and singly-ionized iron abundances. Assuming that the FeII abundances are minimally affected by NLTE effects, we corrected the FeI stellar abundances using a linear fit between FeI and FeII stellar abundance determinations. We found that the Carina metallicity distribution based on the corrected FeI abundances (44 RGs) has a weighted mean metallicity of [Fe/H]=-1.80 and a weighted standard deviation of sigma=0.24 dex. The Carina metallicity distribution based on the FeII abundances (27 RGs) gives similar estimates ([Fe/H]=-1.72, sigma=0.24 dex). The current weighted mean metallicities are slightly more metal poor when compared with similar estimates available in the literature. Furthermore, if we restrict our analysis to stars with the most accurate iron abundances, ~20 FeI and at least three FeII measurements (15 stars), we found that the range in iron abundances covered by Carina RGs (~1 dex) agrees quite well with similar estimates based on high-resolution spectra.Comment: Accepted for publication in PASP, 16 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, 1 MR table Note: the electronic version of Table1 is included, but commented, in the tex fil

Comparative analysis of intestinal helminth infections in colic and non-colic control equine patients

All around the world, intestinal helminths constitute one of the most prevalent life-long occurring infections and re-infections affecting all horse age groups. A range of parasite species among strongyles, ascarids, and tapeworms is known to have the potential to cause colic in horses. However, there is a lack of current scientific evidence on the actual relevance of helminth infection levels in the context of colic in horses kept during prevailing epidemiological conditions. Thus, a prospective case-control study on the occurrence of intestinal helminths in a total of 620 mainly adult equine clinic patients was conducted to investigate the association between colic and helminth infection. For each horse, a range of copromicroscopic, serological, and clinical data was obtained, in addition to a questionnaire on relevant anamnestic data, including previous anthelmintic treatment and husbandry. Using a FLOTAC-based copromicroscopic diagnosis, the highest infection rates were seen for strongyles (41.8%), followed by Anoplocephala perfoliata and Parascaris spp. (both 0.8%), with no significant difference between the two study groups. Employing a real-time PCR a 1.1% S. vulgaris DNA prevalence was found. Considerably higher seroprevalences were observed using S. vulgaris and A. perfoliata ELISAs, with 32.3% and 10.7%, respectively. It was noteworthy that no association concerning either serologic status was encountered with colic status. The shedding of strongyle eggs was associated with a 1.8-times increased risk of S. vulgaris seropositivity. Recent anthelmintic treatment was associated with the onset of colic, as animals who had received an anthelmintic during the previous week had a 2.4-times higher risk of signs of colic compared to those who had been treated at least eight weeks prior. Another noteworthy observation was that ponies were significantly less often affected by colic than warmbloods. The high S. vulgaris and considerable A. perfoliata seroprevalences encountered in this investigation should prompt veterinarians, farm managers, and horse owners to maintain consequent and effective worm control measures

On the Quantitative Impact of the Schechter-Valle Theorem

We evaluate the Schechter-Valle (Black Box) theorem quantitatively by considering the most general Lorentz invariant Lagrangian consisting of point-like operators for neutrinoless double beta decay. It is well known that the Black Box operators induce Majorana neutrino masses at four-loop level. This warrants the statement that an observation of neutrinoless double beta decay guarantees the Majorana nature of neutrinos. We calculate these radiatively generated masses and find that they are many orders of magnitude smaller than the observed neutrino masses and splittings. Thus, some lepton number violating New Physics (which may at tree-level not be related to neutrino masses) may induce Black Box operators which can explain an observed rate of neutrinoless double beta decay. Although these operators guarantee finite Majorana neutrino masses, the smallness of the Black Box contributions implies that other neutrino mass terms (Dirac or Majorana) must exist. If neutrino masses have a significant Majorana contribution then this will become the dominant part of the Black Box operator. However, neutrinos might also be predominantly Dirac particles, while other lepton number violating New Physics dominates neutrinoless double beta decay. Translating an observed rate of neutrinoless double beta decay into neutrino masses would then be completely misleading. Although the principal statement of the Schechter-Valle theorem remains valid, we conclude that the Black Box diagram itself generates radiatively only mass terms which are many orders of magnitude too small to explain neutrino masses. Therefore, other operators must give the leading contributions to neutrino masses, which could be of Dirac or Majorana nature.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures; v2: minor corrections, reference added, matches journal version; v3: typo corrected, physics result and conclusions unchange