Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in McPherson, M. L., Finger, D. J., I., Houskeeper, H. F., Bell, T. W., Carr, M. H., Rogers-Bennett, L., & Kudela, R. M. Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave. Communications Biology, 4(1), (2021): 298, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-01827-6.Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). Within eastern boundary current systems, MHWs have profound impacts on temperature-nutrient dynamics that drive primary productivity. Bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana) forests, a vital nearshore habitat, experienced unprecedented losses along 350 km of coastline in northern California beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2019. These losses have had devastating consequences to northern California communities, economies, and fisheries. Using a suite of in situ and satellite-derived data, we demonstrate that the abrupt ecosystem shift initiated by a multi-year MHW was preceded by declines in keystone predator population densities. We show strong evidence that northern California kelp forests, while temporally dynamic, were historically resilient to fluctuating environmental conditions, even in the absence of key top predators, but that a series of coupled environmental and biological shifts between 2014 and 2016 resulted in the formation of a persistent, altered ecosystem state with low primary productivity. Based on our findings, we recommend the implementation of ecosystem-based and adaptive management strategies, such as (1) monitoring the status of key ecosystem attributes: kelp distribution and abundance, and densities of sea urchins and their predators, (2) developing management responses to threshold levels of these attributes, and (3) creating quantitative restoration suitability indices for informing kelp restoration efforts.M.H.C. received support from the National Science Foundation (OCE‐1538582)

Improving spatial predictability of petroleum resources within the Central Tertiary Basin, Spitsbergen: a geochemical and petrographic study of coals from the eastern and western coalfields

Central Tertiary Basin (CTB) coals from a variety of palaeogeographic conditions within the Longyear and Verkhnij seams, were sampled to assess the relationship between the petroleum present, the remaining generation potential and coal geochemistry in order to improve the spatial predictability of petroleum resources within the basin. Vitrinite reflectance (VR) values from the CTB coals have been shown to be suppressed (Marshall et al., 2015a). This study attempts to quantify and correct for this suppression effect by applying the Lo (1993) method (LoVR), which uses Hydrogen Index (HI) values to modify VR data, and the coal Rank(Sr) scale of Suggate (2000, 2002), a technique not affected by suppression. In addition, the oil generation and expulsion thresholds for the CTB coals were investigated

Shale gas reserve evaluation by laboratory pyrolysis and gas holding capacity consistent with field data

Exploration for shale gas occurs in onshore basins, with two approaches used to predict the maximum gas in place (GIP) in the absence of production data. The first estimates adsorbed plus free gas held within pore space, and the second measures gas yields from laboratory pyrolysis experiments on core samples. Here we show the use of sequential high-pressure water pyrolysis (HPWP) to replicate petroleum generation and expulsion in uplifted onshore basins. Compared to anhydrous pyrolysis where oil expulsion is limited, gas yields are much lower, and the gas at high maturity is dry, consistent with actual shales. Gas yields from HPWP of UK Bowland Shales are comparable with those from degassed cores, with the ca. 1% porosity sufficient to accommodate the gas generated. Extrapolating our findings to the whole Bowland Shale, the maximum GIP equate to potentially economically recoverable reserves of less than 10 years of current UK gas consumption

Return-to-Work Self-Efficacy:Development and Validation of a Scale in Claimants with Musculoskeletal Disorders

Introduction We report on the development and validation of a 10-item scale assessing self-efficacy within the return-to-work context, the Return-to-Work Self-Efficacy (RTWSE) scale. Methods Lost-time claimants completed a telephone survey 1 month (n = 632) and 6 months (n = 446) after a work-related musculoskeletal injury. Exploratory (Varimax and Promax rotation) and confirmatory factor analyses of self-efficacy items were conducted with two separate subsamples at both time points. Construct validity was examined by comparing scale measurements and theoretically derived constructs, and the phase specificity of RTWSE was studied by examining changes in strength of relationships between the RTWSE Subscales and the other constructs at both time measures. Results Factor analyses supported three underlying factors: (1) Obtaining help from supervisor, (2) Coping with pain (3) Obtaining help from co-workers. Internal consistency (alpha) for the three subscales ranged from 0.66 to 0.93. The total variance explained was 68% at 1-month follow-up and 76% at 6-month follow-up. Confirmatory factor analyses had satisfactory fit indices to confirm the initial model. With regard to construct validity: relationships of RTWSE with depressive symptoms, fear-avoidance, pain, and general health, were generally in the hypothesized direction. However, the hypothesis that less advanced stages of change on the Readiness for RTW scale would be associated with lower RTWSE could not be completely confirmed: on all RTWSE subscales, RTWSE decreased significantly for a subset of participants who started working again. Moreover, only Pain RTWSE was significantly associated with RTW status and duration of work disability. With regard to the phase specificity, the strength of association between RTWSE and other constructs was stronger at 6 months post-injury compared to 1 month post-injury. Conclusions A final 10-item version of the RTWSE has adequate internal consistency and validity to assess the confidence of injured workers to obtain help from supervisor and co-workers and to cope with pain. With regard to phase specificity, stronger associations between RTWSE and other constructs at 6-month follow-up suggest that the association between these psychological constructs consolidates over time after the disruptive event of the injury

Cross-cutting principles for planetary health education

Since the 2015 launch of the Rockefeller Foundation Lancet Commission on planetary health,1 an enormous groundswell of interest in planetary health education has emerged across many disciplines, institutions, and geographical regions. Advancing these global efforts in planetary health education will equip the next generation of scholars to address crucial questions in this emerging field and support the development of a community of practice. To provide a foundation for the growing interest and efforts in this field, the Planetary Health Alliance has facilitated the first attempt to create a set of principles for planetary health education that intersect education at all levels, across all scales, and in all regions of the world—ie, a set of cross-cutting principles

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

The self-organizing fractal theory as a universal discovery method: the phenomenon of life

A universal discovery method potentially applicable to all disciplines studying organizational phenomena has been developed. This method takes advantage of a new form of global symmetry, namely, scale-invariance of self-organizational dynamics of energy/matter at all levels of organizational hierarchy, from elementary particles through cells and organisms to the Universe as a whole. The method is based on an alternative conceptualization of physical reality postulating that the energy/matter comprising the Universe is far from equilibrium, that it exists as a flow, and that it develops via self-organization in accordance with the empirical laws of nonequilibrium thermodynamics. It is postulated that the energy/matter flowing through and comprising the Universe evolves as a multiscale, self-similar structure-process, i.e., as a self-organizing fractal. This means that certain organizational structures and processes are scale-invariant and are reproduced at all levels of the organizational hierarchy. Being a form of symmetry, scale-invariance naturally lends itself to a new discovery method that allows for the deduction of missing information by comparing scale-invariant organizational patterns across different levels of the organizational hierarchy