An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations based onto natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, using consistent energy units that allow direct comparisons to be made. These calculations take into account, and provide a theoretical framework for considering uncertainty in resource assessments, providing a novel contribution aimed at enabling the introduction of uncertainty into resource limitations used in energy modelling. The theoretical details and parameters provided in tables enable this extensive natural resource database to be adapted to any modelling framework for energy systems.This work was supported by the Three Guineas Trust, Conicyt (Comisio ́n Nacional de Investigacio ́n Cient ́ıfica y Tec- nolo ́gica, Gobierno de Chile) and the Ministerio de Energie, Gobierno de Chile

FTT:Power : A global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion

This work introduces a model of Future Technology Transformations for the power sector (FTT:Power), a representation of global power systems based on market competition, induced technological change (ITC) and natural resource use and depletion. It is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom-up models of future technology transformations, designed to be integrated into the global macroeconometric model E3MG. ITC occurs as a result of technological learning as given by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear, irreversible and path dependent technological transitions. The model makes use of a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations. As opposed to traditional bottom-up energy models based on systems optimisation, logistic equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and rates of change involved in sectoral technology transformations. Resource use and depletion are represented by local cost-supply curves, which give rise to different regional energy landscapes. The model is explored using two simple scenarios, a baseline and a mitigation case where the price of carbon is gradually increased. While a constant price of carbon leads to a stagnant system, mitigation produces successive technology transitions leading towards the gradual decarbonisation of the global power sector.This work was supported by the Three Guineas TrustSubmitted for publication to Energy Polic

The “Bad Girl” Turned Feminist: The Femme Fatale and the Performance of Theory

Picture the murderous femme fatale Jane Palmer in Byron Haskin’s 1949 film noir Too Late for Tears, as embodied by the talented actress Lizabeth Scott: gorgeous blonde locks, beautiful long legs and luscious thick lips, all dolled up in a shimmery evening gown fit for a Hollywood starlet and sporting a gaudy necklace that sparkles the way stars light up the night sky. Now, picture this dazzling figure stumbling over a balcony and plummeting to her untimely death after the police barge into her luxurious hotel suite in Mexico, accusing her of the murder of not one, but two of her husbands. Panicked by the accusation, she grabs two big handfuls of cash from the suitcase of money she possesses (the driving motivation for at least one of the murders, which she is guilty of). She darts away from the police, trips, and falls over the balcony, ending her life with a high-pitched, petrified scream. After she falls to her death, the money she has so desperately clung to disperses into the air, hovering around her dead body like snowflakes in a snow globe. The final image of the glamorous Jane Palmer culminates in a close-up of her hand: palm open, face up, with three bills strewn alongside it on the pavement where she meets her death

La sécurité alimentaire du tiers-monde : cadre conceptuel de l’action des pays en développement dans le contexte de la mondialisation

Une grande partie de l’élaboration et de l’adoption des droits de la personne s’est faite dans le contexte de l’après-guerre. L’évolution du modèle économique néo-libéral durant cette période et les conséquences qu’il a engendré sur le développement des pays du tiers-monde constituent des entraves évidentes à la réalisation de bon nombre de droits prioritaires de la personne à caractère économique. L’analyse qui suit tentera de démontrer que, pour le droit fondamental de la personne à caractère économique que constitue le droit à la nourriture, les États en développement jouissent de ce qui sera appelé un « droit à la conditionnalité universelle ». Passé sous silence par la doctrine, ce dernier existerait néanmoins et pourrait être défini comme le droit dont sont investis les pays en développement de rendre conditionnelle, ou de soumettre à un processus d’échange, leur participation à la résolution de problématiques mondiales, en contrepartie de l’assouplissement ou du réaménagement des conditions économiques qui empêchent la réalisation d’un droit fondamental de la personne à caractère économique. Le droit à la conditionnalité universelle existerait, par conséquent, au profit des États qui verraient leurs possibilités d’intervention, en vue d’assurer l’application effective d’un droit prioritaire de la personne à caractère économique, paralysées par les effets de la mise en oeuvre d’accords à caractère économique.In the development and adoption of human rights, the greater part of this movement occurred in the post-war context. During this period, the evolution of the neo-liberal economic model and the consequences that it would cause for third-world development constitute obvious obstacles in the fulfillment of many economically oriented priority human rights. The following analysis attempts to demonstrate that as regards the economically oriented priority human rights found in the right for food, developing States have what we may call a “right to universal condition-ality.” Never qualified as such in authoritative writings, this right would exist and could be defined as the right of developing countries to make their participation in the resolving of global issues conditional or to submit it to a trade-off process in exchange for the relaxing or reorganizing of economic conditions that prevent the satisfaction of a basic economically oriented human right. Consequently, the right to universal condition-ality would exist to the advantage of States that could then empower their possibilities to take actions for ensuring the effective application of an economically oriented priority human right currently paralyzed by the effects of implementing economic agreements

An age structured demographic theory of technological change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00191-015-0413-9At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of social and industrial dynamics. The quantitative study of sustainability transitions requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology substitution. Many, if not most, contemporary modelling approaches for future technology pathways overlook most aspects of transitions theory, for instance dimensions of heterogenous investor choices, dynamic rates of diffusion and the profile of transitions. A significant body of literature however exists that demonstrates how transitions follow S-shaped diffusion curves or Lotka- Volterra systems of equations. This framework is used ex-post since timescales can only be reliably obtained in cases where the transitions have already occurred, precluding its use for studying cases of interest where nascent innovations in protective niches await favourable conditions for their diffusion. In principle, scaling parameters of transitions can, however, be derived from knowledge of industrial dynamics, technology turnover rates and technology characteristics. In this context, this paper presents a theory framework for evaluating the parameterisation of S-shaped diffusion curves for use in simulation models of technology transitions without the involvement of historical data fitting, making use of standard demography theory applied to technology at the unit level. The classic Lotka-Volterra competition system emerges from first principles from demography theory, its timescales explained in terms of technology lifetimes and industrial dynamics. The theory is placed in the context of the multi-level perspective on technology transitions, where innovation and the diffusion of new socio-technical regimes take a prominent place, as well as discrete choice theory, the primary theoretical framework for introducing agent diversity.This research was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, fellowship number EP/K007254/1

Audio-visual speech perception: a developmental ERP investigation

Being able to see a talking face confers a considerable advantage for speech perception in adulthood. However, behavioural data currently suggest that children fail to make full use of these available visual speech cues until age 8 or 9. This is particularly surprising given the potential utility of multiple informational cues during language learning. We therefore explored this at the neural level. The event-related potential (ERP) technique has been used to assess the mechanisms of audio-visual speech perception in adults, with visual cues reliably modulating auditory ERP responses to speech. Previous work has shown congruence-dependent shortening of auditory N1/P2 latency and congruence-independent attenuation of amplitude in the presence of auditory and visual speech signals, compared to auditory alone. The aim of this study was to chart the development of these well-established modulatory effects over mid-to-late childhood. Experiment 1 employed an adult sample to validate a child-friendly stimulus set and paradigm by replicating previously observed effects of N1/P2 amplitude and latency modulation by visual speech cues; it also revealed greater attenuation of component amplitude given incongruent audio-visual stimuli, pointing to a new interpretation of the amplitude modulation effect. Experiment 2 used the same paradigm to map cross-sectional developmental change in these ERP responses between 6 and 11 years of age. The effect of amplitude modulation by visual cues emerged over development, while the effect of latency modulation was stable over the child sample. These data suggest that auditory ERP modulation by visual speech represents separable underlying cognitive processes, some of which show earlier maturation than others over the course of development

Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5C

Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We take a modelling-based approach for simulating which policy measures could induce an almost-complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? Policy effectiveness highly depends on behavioural decision- making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation. We therefore use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating technologies. Results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. Policy mixes are projected to be more effective and robust for driving the market of efficient low-carbon technologies, compared to the reliance on a carbon tax as the only policy instrument. In combination with subsidies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a residential carbon tax of 50-200Euro/tCO2. The policy-induced technology transition would increase average heating costs faced by households initially, but could also lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. Model projections illustrate the uncertainty that is attached to household behaviour for prematurely replacing heating systems

Convergent and divergent fMRI responses in children and adults to increasing language production demands

In adults, patterns of neural activation associated with perhaps the most basic language skill—overt object naming—are extensively modulated by the psycholinguistic and visual complexity of the stimuli. Do children's brains react similarly when confronted with increasing processing demands, or they solve this problem in a different way? Here we scanned 37 children aged 7–13 and 19 young adults who performed a well-normed picture-naming task with 3 levels of difficulty. While neural organization for naming was largely similar in childhood and adulthood, adults had greater activation in all naming conditions over inferior temporal gyri and superior temporal gyri/supramarginal gyri. Manipulating naming complexity affected adults and children quite differently: neural activation, especially over the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, showed complexity-dependent increases in adults, but complexity-dependent decreases in children. These represent fundamentally different responses to the linguistic and conceptual challenges of a simple naming task that makes no demands on literacy or metalinguistics. We discuss how these neural differences might result from different cognitive strategies used by adults and children during lexical retrieval/production as well as developmental changes in brain structure and functional connectivity