Seasonal habitat selection by eland in arid savanna in southern Africa

The small scale seasonal habitat selection of eland in a semi-arid savanna was investigated. Linear discriminant functions and suitability index curves were calculated to differentiate between 314 m2 plots where eland were present and absent. Biological explanations were sought for the results. In winter eland relied on woody evergreen plants, while in summer they selected patches with good grass cover. Eland were independent of shelter and cover in both seasons. The ability of the discriminant functions to predict the presence and absence of eland was validated by classifying independent habitat samples. The functions were found to be reliable

Future Opportunities for IoT to Support People with Parkinson’s

Recent years have seen an explosion of internet of things (IoT) technologies being released to the market. There has also been an emerging interest in the potentials of IoT devices to support people with chronic health conditions. In this paper, we describe the results of engagements to scope the future potentials of IoT for supporting people with Parkinson’s. We ran a 2-day multi-disciplinary event with professionals with expertise in Parkinson’s and IoT, to explore the opportunities, challenges and benefits. We then ran 4 workshops, engaging 13 people with Parkinson’s and caregivers, to scope out the needs, values and desires that the community has for utilizing IoT to monitor their symptoms. This work contributes a set of considerations for future IoT solutions that might support people with Parkinson’s in better understanding their condition, through the provision of objective measurements that correspond to their, currently unmeasured, subjective experiences

Composition of woody species in a dynamic forest-woodland-savannah mosaic in Uganda: implications for conservation and management

Forest¿woodland¿savannah mosaics are a common feature in the East African landscape. For the conservation of the woody species that occur in such landscapes, the species patterns and the factors that maintain it need to be understood. We studied the woody species distribution in a forest¿woodland¿savannah mosaic in Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda. The existing vegetation gradients were analyzed using data from a total of 591 plots of 400 or 500 m2 each. Remotely sensed data was used to explore current vegetation cover and the gradients there in for the whole area. A clear species gradient exists in the study area ranging from forest, where there is least disturbance, to wooded grassland, where frequent fire disturbance occurs. Most species are not limited to a specific part of the gradient although many show a maximum abundance at some point along the gradient. Fire and accessibility to the protected area were closely related to variation in species composition along the ordination axis with species like Cynometra alexandri and Uvariopsis congensis occurring at one end of the gradient and Combretum guenzi and Lonchocarpus laxiflorus at the other. The vegetation cover classes identified in the area differed in diversity, density and, especially, basal area. All vegetation cover classes, except open woodland, had indicator species. Diospyros abyssinica, Uvariopsis congensis, Holoptelea grandis and all Celtis species were the indicator species for the forest class, Terminalia velutina and Albizia grandbracteata for closed woodland, Grewia mollis and Combretum mole for very open woodland and Lonchocarpus laxiflorus, Grewia bicolor and Combretum guenzi for the wooded grassland class. Eleven of the species occurred in all cover classes and most of the species that occurred in more than one vegetation cover class showed peak abundance in a specific cover class. Species composition in the study area changes gradually from forest to savannah. Along the gradient, the cover classes are distinguishable in terms of species composition and vegetation structure. These classes are, however, interrelated in species composition. For conservation of the full range of the species within this East African landscape, the mosaic has to be managed as an integrated whole. Burning should be varied over the area with the forest not being burnt at all and the wooded grassland burnt regularly. The different vegetation types that occur between these two extremes should be maintained using a varied fire regim

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The effect of animal size and adaptation on defoliation, selective defoliation, animal production and veld condition.

A conceptual model of the veld-herbivore relationship is presented. Large-sized, largely grazing animals feed relatively unselectively on abundant roughage. The carrying capacity of veld for them is high. They are low producers per animal, but high producers per ha. Per unit of metabolic mass they have a relatively minor effect on veld condition. Browsers and small-sized, largely grazing animals select strongly for concentrated food. The carrying capacity of veld for them is low. They are excellent converters per animal and per unit mass of intake. Their production per ha is low. One-animal-species models have been quantified readily. The complexity of two- or more-species models at present makes them prohibitively expensive and laborious to quantify. Two simplifications, one of which is readily testable, are proposed to circumvent the impasse.Keywords: animal production; browsers; carrying capacity; defoliation; grazing; intake; metabolic mass; modelling; models; production; selective defoliation; south africa; veld conditio

Are multi-paddock grazing systems economically justifiable?

The financial implications of few- and multi-paddock systems were modelled by a discounted cash flow analysis with the (discounted) present value as the dependent variable, and number of paddocks, farm run-down time, time horizon and discount rate as the independent variables. Present values were higher for few- than for multi-paddocks where rundown was slow, time horizon short and discount rate high. Present values were always higher for few- than for multi-paddocks when time horizon was short. At high discounts, present values over all modelled time horizons were higher for few- than multi-paddocks. Even if the conservation ideal of zero or low discounts obtains, there is little financial incentive for multi-paddocks for farmers with short planning horizons. Remedy of this by state aid and tax concessions has been tried. Success is not obvious, perhaps because subsidy has reduced farming costs and thereby prompted faster or greater resource depletion.Language: EnglishKeywords: conservation; Continuous grazing; discount rate; Discount rates; farming; grazing; grazing systems; modelling; planning; present value; Present values; Range deterioration; Rotational grazing; south afric

Evaluation of the wheel-point and step-point methods of veld condition assessment.

A number of aspects of a technique recently developed to assess the agro-ecological condition of veld were evaluated by 4 independent observers. Measuring the veld composition score yielded relatively repeatable results with a 95% confidence limit of (6,43 units for any single estimate which may range from 0 to 100 units. The step-point method yielded results on percentage veld composition and on veld composition score which did not differ in precision or in absolute amount from those obtained using the wheel-point apparatus. Adoption of the step point method in preference to the wheel-point method saves in equipment and manpower, and renders the technique usable by extension officers estimate of basal cover, and perhaps should not be used on uneven terrain or bushy veld. Using a circular-quadrat 3,5 cm in diameter yielded a more precise index of basal cover than did the standard method using a point-quadrat 1 mm in diameter. However, there are disadvantages in using the relatively large quadrat. Possible bias introduced into determining percentage species composition and composition score by using the nearest plant method were negligible.Keywords: basal cover; measuring; precision; quadrat; range; species composition; step-point method; technique; veld condition assessment; wheel-point metho